Populism for The Poor

A Polemic on the Post-Leftist Desire for self-deception in the midst of a manifest socio-ecological systemic crisis.

Tomasz Konicz

They are anything but modest when it comes to their ostentatiously displayed modesty. The leaders of the so-called “Left Party” (Partei dei Linke – hereinafter PDL), Ines Schwerdtner and Jan van Aken, gave up part of their salary in the fall of 2024 in order to receive the statistical German average wage from then on. They wanted to “change the world,” and an “average salary” was perfectly sufficient for this, whereas “exorbitant salaries would lead to exorbitant politics,” the party leaders explained with all due modesty to any media representatives who wanted to hear it.[1] The money saved would be donated, and special consultation hours would be set up at the party headquarters to help people in need. No concern was too small, party leader Schwerdtner asserted. Populism for the poor and disenfranchised of this late capitalist world, so to speak.

Of course, this populist idea of becoming the advocate of the “little man” did not grow on the dung heap at Karl Liebknecht House (to stay with the populist jargon). The original left-wing populist can be found in Austria and goes by the name of KPÖ. The website of the Communist Party of Austria in Graz states that – surprise, surprise – “exorbitant politicians’ salaries… lead to exorbitant politics.”[2] The KPÖ in Graz uses the money it collects in this way to help people in need – meticulous records are kept of this, and the relevant data is publicly available. The crucial difference to the PDL, however, is that the Austrian communists oblige all elected representatives to limit their salaries to the average wage of a skilled worker in order to be able to use these funds for social policy.

The KPÖ’s strategy should therefore be taken seriously. It is a form of left-wing populism that genuinely strives to help people in the midst of a manifest systemic crisis, while at the same time taking the wind out of the sails of opportunism within its own ranks. Because, let’s not kid ourselves, the salary cuts are primarily intended to deter careerists and their cliques, who have already taken over many left-wing projects as soon as they became successful – starting with the Fischer gang and the Greens. The PDL, on the other hand, is staging a populist charade that is only concerned with external impact and showmanship in order to achieve electoral success and lead as many of its old boy networks and Rackes as possible to well-paid feeding troughs (always stay populist!).

The difference between populism and melodrama lies precisely in the salary cap that would have to apply to the entire party, its apparatus, and above all to the foundation that misuses the name of Rosa Luxemburg in order to be taken seriously. This would actually add up to a considerable sum of money that could be used to help many people who have fallen on hard times during the crisis. In Graz alone, several million euros have already been raised in this way. If the Left Party were to introduce a similar salary cap for all office holders and employees, similar sums would be raised every month, which could actually be used to provide concrete help to a great many people in need – be it soup kitchens or food banks, which are now barely able to meet the growing demand.

The critique of German post-left populism, which has now become almost hegemonic, is thus a critique of this charade performed by actors hungry for power and position. After only a few months, the PDL’s electoral success is thus turning out to be a disaster for all that remains of the left in Germany.[3]

But even as a consistent, sincerely meant strategy, such as that pursued by the KPÖ, populism must be subjected to radical, fundamental critique, as its basic assumption is false. The voice of the people, the vox populi, which populism seeks to capture and transform into politics in order to assert the interests of the people, is preformed by late capitalist crisis ideology and how subjects are socialized in capitalist society. The internal interests articulated by populism are therefore an expression of adherence to a practice of false immediacy in the midst of the capitalist systemic crisis – that is, the doomed post-leftist effort to realize the political goals that impose themselves as “immediate” surface phenomena (welfare state, work, climate protection, democratization, etc.).[4]

Populism can therefore only operate within the framework of internal capitalist interests, which are subject to a crisis-induced process of erosion – and it merely parrots society’s brutalizing ideological self-image. The guiding principle of populist politics is thus not the harsh, uncomfortable reality of the crisis, but the false ideological illusion that the crisis produces through cultural-industrial mediation by means of the vox populi preformed by late capitalism. This is particularly devastating because of the rapidly unfolding systemic crisis, which has now also engulfed the core of the world system, and which makes a radical, transformative critique of late capitalist society, with its contradictions and prevailing crisis ideology, essential for survival—and not parroting it, as is characteristic of populism.[5]

This subjugation to the imperatives and “practical constraints” of the permanent crisis inherent in populism has now driven the imposition of a party foundation that has hijacked the name of Rosa Luxemburg (RLS) to the point of real satire. In its strategy paper entitled Linke Triggerpunkte (Left Trigger Points), the RLS simply argued that all issues that contradict the right-wing, pre-fascist hegemony in the FRG and would thus “trigger” right-wing reactions should be avoided. Don’t rock the boat, is the motto of the – well – Rosa Luxemburg Foundation. In particular, the issues of refugees and the climate crisis should be avoided so as not to alienate potential voters (and, by the way, this says it all about the crazy, old-left fixation on wage earners and “proletarians” as the “revolutionary subject,” who in fact, in their function as variable capital, act more as its last resort, as the RLS implicitly admits in its right-wing “strategy paper.”[6]

Ultimately, the aim is to avoid addressing the systemic crisis that is currently destroying the social and ecological foundations of civilization in order to remain compatible with late capitalist politics. And the PDL is sticking to this line. It is in fact an ideological declaration of surrender, with which the PDL simply enters into populist competition with the AfD, without even being able to conceive of a counter-principle to fascism in the manifest crisis. Other bogeymen are constructed (bigwigs, the rich), alternative historical periods are romanticized as a “golden age” (the “social market economy” of the second half of the 20th century) – and at the same time, any hint of radical, categorical criticism of the disintegrating foundations of late capitalism evaporates. Phrases and posturing take the place of critique. Women and men strike a Che Guevara pose when they demand higher tax rates for “fat cats.”

Wagenknecht’s Heirs

So what does the new German left-wing populism in the form of the PDL want? It wants to return to the past, back to the social market economy, to the Rhineland prosperity capitalism of the post-war period. The social question is at the center of populist propaganda. The Left Party strikes a pose as the advocate of the little people, demanding an expansion of the welfare state, higher taxes for the rich, and a greater role for the state in the economy—just as was the case in the economic miracle of the Federal Republic of Germany.

Not only strategically, but also in terms of content, the new left-wing populism thus turns out to be a mere copy of the policies of Sahra Wagenknecht and the National Socialist forces that formed the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).[7] Ms. Wagenknecht explicitly formulated the crazy idea of being able to return to the second half of the 20th century by means of populist politics in her book Die Selbstgerechten (The Self-Righteous) shortly before the split.[8] The Left Party is the populist heir to Wagenknecht’s Querfront populism, pursuing left-wing conservative policies, to use Wagenknecht’s apt oxymoron, although the PDL at least refrains from parroting the crisis-induced rise in resentment, xenophobia, and racism that characterizes the BSW.

And the whole thing is obviously – to return to populist jargon once again – a single lie and a deception, a kind of popular deception committed by pseudo-populists, which the PDL performs with all its false immediacy. There is no going back to the social market economy; the clocks cannot be turned back. The crisis process stands in the way of this populist anachronism. The crisis as a fetishistic process, eating its way in fits and starts from the periphery to the centers, driven by the internal contradictions of capital, is now evident. Everything is obvious—and it is almost impressive to see the mental contortions the German post-left still manages to perform in order to ignore this evidence.

It is obvious: the trade wars that Trump started are the political consequence of deindustrialization in large parts of the United States, where the internal barrier of capital manifests itself.[9] The fetishistic self-movement of capital on a societal level, generated by competition between market subjects, becomes evident in the climate crisis.[10] There is no capitalist interest behind the fact that the compulsion to valorize will soon render entire regions of the world uninhabitable. The self-destructive irrationality of the capitalist system, which uses instrumental rationality to turn the whole world into material for its boundless valorization process, is self-explanatory when one takes a cursory look at global CO2 emissions.

No one wants a revolution; there is no revolutionary subject. That, too, is obvious. And yet – even though almost all sections of the population cling fiercely to its forms of socialization – the system is collapsing. It is the capitalist compulsion to valorize in its agony that calls the system into question by breaking down under its own contradictions – while left-wing populism wants to make everything a question of distribution and clings to a society in dissolution in a reactionary manner. The right wing is, in a sense, acting in a forward-looking manner; it wants barbarism, it wants collapse, in order to approach fascist madness in a cleansing steel storm – the populist left is acting conservatively, clinging to the ideologically distorted ideal images of economic miracle capitalism.

But there can be no welfare state in late capitalism, because the whole of society depends on the pot of the valorization process, quite prosaically in the form of taxes and wages. The PDL’s moronic drivel about the welfare state is a lie. When the valorization process stagnates or simply collapses, when the economy no longer “runs,” then everything else is also up for grabs. Redistribution does not help when the mass of valorized labor in commodity production melts away, when the valorization process destroys its ecological foundations.

There will also be no peace in collapsing late capitalism, as the increasing internal contradictions and ecological upheavals almost inevitably drive the state monsters into external expansion and military adventures. The arms build-up in the West is not only a reaction to Russian imperialism, which launched a war of aggression against Ukraine from a position of internal instability and geopolitical weakness.[11] Increasing resource bottlenecks and raw material shortages will make ordinary wars of plunder necessary again wherever the process of capital valorization, with its boundless hunger for resources, is to be maintained. Food supplies are at risk in the medium term, which is already reflected in corresponding inflation. A catastrophic major war is only a matter of time. In the dark present of the 21st century, there is only war.

Late capitalist democracy is also a thing of the past. In times of crisis, fascist tendencies inevitably gain the upper hand, together with an oligarchic brutalization of the increasingly authoritarian state apparatus. This is not a prediction for the future; it is already happening: in the US, in parts of Eastern Europe, and to some extent also in Germany. What’s more, fascism is the subjective agent of the objectively already unfolding systemic transformation into post-capitalist barbarism. The optimization of the valorization process, realized through democratic discourse, which constitutes the Orwellian essence of capitalist democracy, is turning into an objective tendency toward self-destruction in the manifest crisis of the system, whose subjective political actor is fascism.[12]

The Stepping Stones for the Stepping Stones

Almost everyone knows, really everyone suspects, that the system is coming to an end. And yet the populism of the Left Party, with its obvious fairy tales, is quite successful. The PDL’s deceivers of the people (always stay populist!), who pretend that the systemic crisis does not exist in order to throw social democratic sand in people’s eyes, are simply pursuing their own intra-capitalist interests. The populist question of cui bono, of “who benefits,” which inevitably turns into ideology when considering the irrational, fetishistic crisis process, is entirely appropriate in the autopsy of populism.

Redefining the systemic question as a question of distribution simply opens up career paths in politics. There is a concrete need for this. The ideological taboo of saying what is, of clearly naming the self-destruction of the system, must be maintained even in its agony. However, the basis of capitalist ideology production, the naturalization of capitalism, can hardly be maintained due to increasing upheavals. The false narratives of left-wing populism, according to which the excessive greed and lust for power of a class of sinister puppet masters and bigwigs are responsible for this, create ideological outlets that alleviate the pressure for legitimacy. There is nothing that a few new tax rates and economic shifts toward Keynesianism cannot fix, according to the implicit lie of left-wing populism. The seemingly radical pose and hollow rhetoric conceal the gulf between the reality of the crisis and the anachronistic postulates of the PDL.

The Greens have twisted the urgent insight into the capitalist climate crisis[13] into a commitment to “green capitalism,” while the Left Party is doing something similar with regard to the internal barriers of capital and their social consequences.[14] The PDL thus offers itself to the capitalist functional elites as crisis managers. And this is not done metaphorically, but quite concretely –visible to anyone who wants to see it. Any pseudo-radical rhetoric from prominent figures in the PDL melts away immediately as soon as there is even the slightest chance of participating in politics.

The TikTok product Heidi Reichinnek, for example, jumped on the anti-fascist wave of outrage in early 2025 that was triggered by the taboo-breaking of the then CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz in the heated election campaign phase when the CDU used the votes of the AfD to push through tightening of immigration laws.[15] At the time, the chairwoman of the Left Party group in the Bundestag said that Merz had left the democratic center and had the AfD in tow.[16]  Just a few months later, the same Heidi Reichinnek and her parliamentary group enabled the election of the same Friedrich Merz as chancellor, who committed the greatest fascist “taboo breach” in German postwar history.[17] This was accompanied by the most pitiful phrases: “End the chaos,” “always ready,” “for the good of the country and its people,” always “cooperation possible.” Reichinnek can simply rely on the fact that the memory of her TikTok fan swarm has to be measured in seconds.

Why did the PDL enable the early election of Merz as a stepping stone? Why did the PDL members of the Bundestag effectively act as stepping stones for the stepping stones? To demonstrate their reliability in the political arena, to prove that they can be a reliable partner in “cooperation” in capitalist crisis management. And this decision by the PDL not to stand in the way of German pre-fascism was recognized and appreciated, within narrow limits. The CDU’s decision on its incompatibility with the PDL has been made, and the FAZ, as a kind of late-capitalist Izvestia, basically the central organ of the Federal Republic’s functional elite, ran a headline after the chancellor election that said the “Left Party” was no longer “suitable as an bogeyman.”[18] The path to normalization, to ordinary participation, has been paved since the chancellor election – the PDL’s anti-fascist campaign slogans were the opportunistic sacrifice that the party, which hatched Wagenknecht, was only too willing to make.

The leading PDL cliques are, to stay with populist jargon, an abyss of cheap phrases and ass-kissing towards the functional elites wherever possible. And this post-leftist imposition wants to do nothing other than the political business that is oriented towards ordinary, worn-out crisis strategies. The reactionary state fetish that characterizes a large part of the German old left forms the perfect ideological springboard for career planning in crisis management, since the state moves into a central economic position in manifest crisis phases in order to support the stuttering valorization machine.

Dysfunctional Hyper-Opportunism

However, as mentioned above, there are strict limits to the PDL’s participation. In return for its parliamentary function as a stepping stone for Merz, the PDL faction expected not only the “normalization” of relations with the CDU, but also a seat on the secret service committee. Our Heidi Reichinnek, who made it possible to quickly elect a chancellor who had the “AfD in tow” in order to “avoid chaos” in Germany, wanted to be on this committee for one reason only: to prove her reliability, “for the good of the country,” etc., etc. Well, that was too much of a stepping stone for the CDU and SPD. The already pitiful calculation of getting into the intelligence committee by means of the chancellor election did not work out, as Reichinnek failed to obtain the necessary majority in June.[19]

But that does not deter the opportunistic participation mania of the power-hungry middle-class snobs with proletarian tendencies who make up the majority of the PDL’s old boy networks – on the contrary. Opportunism escalates into hyper-opportunism, it overturns itself, becomes dysfunctional, stands in its own way, negates itself, so to speak. It is opportunism without an opportunistic chance, without opportunity, which virtually takes control of the bullying machines at the top of the PDL: No one demanded it of her, there were no government posts in sight, and yet Ines Schwerdtner, the imposition at the top of the “Left Party,” demanded an increase in the retirement age in August 2025, while expressing the usual “concerns.”[20]

This was a populist cardinal sin committed here without cause, with Ms. Schwerdtner simply telling the truth: not regarding the retirement age, but with regard to the character of the PDL’s “left-wing populism,” which simply lies to people. As I said, they do not believe in the social demagoguery they spew in the systemic crisis. The populists of the PDL lie; it is not ignorance. Ms. Schwerdtner just wanted to be part of the reactionary debate on crisis management strategies in order to signal her “ability to govern.” And that contradicts not only the PDL’s anachronistic social welfare rhetoric, but also the populist credo and tactics of social demagoguery, which is based on sweet-talking people until you are in power – only to then forget your promises and betray your voters. Schwerdtner overshot the mark and had to be called back, although the PDL can probably rely on the short attention span of its Reddit and TikTok brigades.[21]

And that’s nothing new, really. The PDL already stumbled over its dysfunctional hyper-opportunism during the 2021 election campaign. The man who reverently knelt before Wolfgang Schäuble, Dietmar Bartsch, then the party’s top candidate, declared much of the painstakingly negotiated election program obsolete during the heated campaign phase because the competition criticized it.[22] Following criticism from the SPD and the Greens on a number of program points, Bartsch threw a good part of his party’s program overboard in order to demonstrate the party’s ability to govern in the middle of the election campaign – instead of doing so, as is customary with every other party, only in the event of possible coalitions after the election.[23] Despite the change in leadership, much of the old left has remained opportunistic. Hyper-opportunism can thus be defined as a thirst for power and career advancement that stands in its own way.

The proletarian streak of the “Left Party,” its ostentatious display of love for the working class, for wage earners, is a quirk of the middle-class snobs who make up the majority of the PDL leadership.[24]  The internal capitalist interests of wage earners, which this pseudo-populism purports to represent, will be betrayed at the earliest opportunity. No question about it. Ms. Schwerdtner’s love of work goes so far that she would like to see the working life extended – as long as Ms. Schwerdtner herself does not have to work, of course. After all, why shouldn’t we apply the same populist categories to Ms. Schwerdtner as she does to her political rivals?[25] To evaluate Schwerdtner on the basis of her own work ideology: here, a middle-class snob who has never really worked is calling for the extension of working life so that she can provide her political clique with jobs and money as quickly as possible.

And it is no coincidence that the traditional German work ethic, which Ms. Schwerdtner aggressively propagates, is at the heart of this populist taboo-breaking, which only provides a glimpse of this ragtag group’s possible participation in government. The state fetish of the German old left in and around the PDL – which is reinforced by objective state-capitalist crisis tendencies – is complemented by the German work ethic. It is a product of the old left’s belief in the proletariat as a “revolutionary subject,” as well as a central ideologeme of late capitalist crisis ideology, to which the PDL is attached.

Labor, however – leaving the populist rubbish behind – is the substance of capital. The outright hysteria surrounding work, the relentless agitation against everything that does not contribute to the process of capital valorization, are expressions of the crisis of this very process of valorization, which is driving it toward self-destruction. That is why, in times of crisis, the potentially murderous work ethic manifests itself again and again, to the point of forced labor and starvation – even in the 21st century.[26] Everything must become work because work itself is breaking down.[27] The PDL, with its populist hatred of “profiteers” and “parasites,” which stifled any radical critique, is only one post-leftist current of this crisis ideology.

The Regressive Desire for Self-Deception

The PDL can thus already be understood as a post-left formation; they are opportunistic barbarians who dwell in the ruins of past emancipatory attempts. The actual intra-capitalist interest that drives these populist cliques thus materializes in figures such as Schwerdtner or Reichinnek: It is the panicky urge to find a place in late capitalist crisis management in order to become its subject. This also explains the dysfunctional tendency toward hyper-opportunism –time is running out, and the systemic crisis, which these opportunists are dishonestly framing as a redistribution crisis, is progressing inexorably. And they sense that time is running out for them to still “find a place.” As a result, there are hardly any taboos, even without gratification: stepping stones are paved to the chancellorship, promises of a welfare state are turned on their head, etc. The ridiculousness of demanding marginal improvements to a system in open dissolution in the midst of a manifest socio-ecological systemic crisis is blatantly obvious.

But this does not explain the evident popularity of the PDL’s pseudo-populism, which has in fact long since become hegemonic in the German post-left. Its hypocrisy is evident: Germany’s post-left populists polemicize against fascist stooges in order to pave their way into the chancellery a few months later; they engage in social demagoguery, which they refute without any opportunistic motive by demanding an increase in the working life. These populist lies, which can be easily exposed, nevertheless find open ears and receptive minds. Many old leftists and broad sections of the population simply want to be deceived. There is a widespread desire for self-deception that cannot be explained simply by demagoguery or the hope of followers for a warm place in crisis management. This pseudo-populist filth is so successful because it appeals to a widespread, irrational need that is rampant in the manifest crisis of the system.

This irrational, dark need, which takes hold of the masses in the wake of the fully revealed irrationalism of capital, is best illuminated by the concept of regression. The fear-induced relapse into earlier stages of development, often used to ward off traumatic experiences, corresponds to a variety of reflexes of ideological defense against the crisis in the disintegrating political sphere. In this magical thinking, the global crisis of capital is to be banished by making perceiving, reflecting upon, or discussing it taboo. Concretely, this manifests itself in the struggle of the post- and old left against radical crisis theory. It is a kind of taboo that is being established, a compulsive unwillingness to know – which, in view of the manifest crisis and the openly apparent fetishism of capital[28] increasingly often turns into ridicule: for example, when young PDL members demand “justice in the climate collapse,”[29] or when left-leaning German comedians issue ultimatums to billionaires[30] to put an end to the crisis, while the latter have long since had their bunkers built.[31]

The post-left regression that drives the populism of the PDL and the disintegrating BSW is related to the explicitly reactionary aspirations of the right, which has also been expressed concretely in the querfront efforts of recent years.[32] However, this preconscious and unconscious crisis reflex goes beyond a merely political dimension. The crisis of capital also affects the subjects whose own constitution and socialization are shaped by late capitalism. What capital does to wage earners, their constitution as subjects, as citizens and market subjects, is on the verge of dissolution. And regression wants to cling to this, to late capitalist identity, which – by the way – also explains the rampant identity mania that is merely an expression of dissolving identities. When everything is in flux, when things are in motion, subjects cling to what they still have left – to the identity they acquired through their socialization, even if this is also eroding.

Radical crisis theory and the resulting transformative practice, the escape from the capitalist prison of thought, thus amounts to a necessary, painful break with identity. And it is precisely this break with capital that the old left refuses, as crisis theorist Robert Kurz already explained in his examination of anti-German ideology at the beginning of the 21st century:

The impending categorical break would be such a painful break with identity that the death throes of the old paradigm of critique consist primarily in devising avoidance strategies in this regard.”[33]

The post-left pseudo-populism of the PDL is thus not only an opportunistic career project in an era of open crisis management, it also builds on this unconscious crisis tendency toward regression, on the subjects’ fear of impending “loss of self,” so to speak. It is also a populism of the intellectually poor, to put it populistically. In this context, Robert Kurz spoke explicitly of a “reactionary longing for a return to the old familiar patterns of interpretation” in “large parts of the left.” The anachronistic talk of the welfare state, the zombie-like return of anti-imperialism in the form of post-colonialism, the praise of hard work in the face of the impending AI rationalization pushes, the ridiculous polemic about parasites and fat cats in the face of the manifest climate crisis – all these appeal to this regressive need among all the old leftists who have not yet openly defected to the right.[34]

The populist desire to march back into the idealized social market economy is merely a post-left expression of this general tendency toward regression, as exemplified by Wagenknecht.[35] It is literally an “avoidance strategy,” as Kurz put it. Or, to put it another way: the identitarian delusion – whether based on national or religious grounds – is an expression of clinging to late capitalist society, which shaped these identities through socialization.

And yet this regressive flight into identitarian delusion and class struggle stupidity will not stop the fetishistic march toward crisis. Every day, open crisis fetishism strikes a blow to the numb wannabe class warriors who can only smell sinister capitalist interests everywhere. It is obvious that the looming climate catastrophe, for example, also threatens to put an end to capital’s profiteering. The crisis will continue to unfold in its ecological and economic dimensions, even if populism and old-left dullness obscure or marginalize radical crisis theory. The fetishistic reality of the crisis cannot be mobbed away.

The categorical break that Robert Kurz predicted in his book Die antideutsche Ideologie [The Anti-German Ideology] is now very much on the agenda. Not because the fearful market subjects blinded by identity want it, but because it will inevitably take place in the course of the upcoming transformation of the system:

“On the historical agenda is the categorical break with the basic forms of the modern commodity-producing system as such, as announced by the concept of value criticism: the capital relation must be fundamentally criticized as value socialization. If, after the collapse of state socialism, the labor movement, and traditional Marxism, there is to be a renewed theoretical and practical critique of the ruling world system, its economic terror, its social impositions, and its processes of destruction, then this critique must become more radical; that is, unlike previous left-wing paradigms, it must go deeper, to the roots and to the categorical basis of commodity-producing modernity. This includes a critique of the fetishistic form of subject and interest, of ‘abstract labor,’ and of the democratic legal form: all of which are foreign concepts to the dying consciousness of the categorically immanent labor movement Marxism. Since one was oneself an integral part of the history of capitalist modernization, one cannot and does not want to break away from commodity-producing modernity.”[36]

Despite the ever-advancing dynamics of the crisis, nothing has changed in this regard over the past two decades. This old left is in fact the main disruptive factor in the establishment of a radical awareness of the crisis, which could only develop on the political left. Nowhere is this clearer than in the decaying products of “state socialism, the labor movement, and traditional Marxism,” which have taken on a populist form in the PDL – they are flesh from the ideological flesh of capital, its last resort in the disintegrating left, so to speak, which attempts to suppress any emancipatory impulse. Opportunistic calculation, old-left dullness, and general regression go hand in hand here.

Especially against the backdrop of the inevitable systemic crisis, which will necessarily lead to an open-ended systemic transformation, this post-left “identity populism” has a disastrous effect. Emancipation in crisis can only be the result of a consciously waged struggle for transformation.[37] On this point, Robert Kurz writes in The Anti-German Ideology:

“But that is precisely why the crisis leads to nothing but crisis, the failure of capital to function, and not to the self-evident demise of capital as a social relationship, as has become a false assumption in people’s minds. The crisis therefore never replaces emancipation, the emancipatory social movement, precisely because it is purely objective. Of course, there is no automatic, objective emancipation; that would be a contradiction in terms. And it is therefore completely open how people will react to crisis and collapse. In its objectivity, the absolute internal barrier of capital can become an external condition for emancipation as well as for social decay into barbarism, which capitalism has always carried within itself as a potentiality and as a manifestation.”[38]

The opportunistically motivated, regressive dullness propagated by the PDL within the dwindling German remnants of the left thus objectively blocks the necessary “categorical break with the basic forms of the modern commodity-producing system,” as Kurz put it.[39] This categorical break, however, would be a prerequisite for anemancipatory social movement” that would consciously wage social struggles as part of the objectively imminent struggle for transformation.[40]

Telling it like it is – clearly and publicly articulating the crisis and the necessity of overcoming capitalism in order to survive – seems hardly conceivable anymore in the populist morass that has spread throughout the remnants of the left in the wake of the PDL’s catastrophic election victory.[41] Instead of radical critique of the frothing identity and work mania, which are only expressions of the crisis of labor and the market subject, instead of a conscious, forward-looking search for emancipatory paths to transformation, the PDL is staging a backward-looking farce that is blatantly obvious in its regressive hypocrisy. Incidentally, the PDL’s ideological-identitarian blockade extends not only to the left-wing media landscape, which has been largely brought into line, but also to left-wing discussion forums and social networks, most of which are moderated by people who do not have to work because they are paid by the PDL – as parliamentary assistants, party employees, volunteers, interns, etc. The fundamental radical discourse, the understanding of emancipatory ways out of the impending catastrophe, is being cut off at its root.

Emancipation requires a radical, categorical break with value-based society, both ideologically and identitarily, as a precondition for emancipatory transformative practice – precisely because value-based society is breaking down due to its contradictions. Regression, the comfortable opportunistic path of the PDL, on the other hand, acts as one of the breeding grounds for fascism. Fascism is an extremism of the center, which drives precisely what it finds in the center in terms of ideology and identity to extremes in response to crises.

This regressive openness to the right, which drove Wagenknecht to leave the National Socialist Party, can currently be best demonstrated by the largest populist hollow body in the PDL, party leader Jan van Aken.[42] Van Aken has developed the habit of having posters made for himself[43] in order to sell himself as a tribune of the people in populist fashion.[44] Here, the right-wing degeneration of a simplified critique of capitalism becomes visible as if under a magnifying glass: praise for the hard work that “keeps the country running” goes hand in hand with the personification of the crisis in a “clique of millionaires.” Mr. van Aken, similar to his co-chair, is someone croaking the praises of work even though he has never had to “really work” in the populist sense.

As mentioned, labor is the substance of capital – the rampant work hysteria that is once again giving rise to forced labor in the FRG is an expression of the crisis of capital, which, with the impending AI rationalization push, threatens to finally rid itself of its own substance.[45] Emancipatory practice would consist in fighting for the end of compulsory labor and the realization of automation in a post-capitalist society emancipated from fetishism. The German work mania, which escalated during the last severe systemic crisis in the context of National Socialist extremism from the center to the Auschwitz motto “Arbeit macht Frei” [Work makes you free], is currently flaring up in response to the crisis in almost all political camps. Van Aken reproduces this work fetish in a post-leftist variant by contrasting the proletarian masses with a clique of parasites.

The discourse hegemony of fascism in the FRG becomes particularly visible when van Aken expresses anti-fascist views and unwittingly lapses into fascistoid critique of fascism, imagining fascism as a sinister elite conspiracy (“bigwigs”) directed against national labor, against – surprise – the “hard-working people.”[46] Workaholism, personification of the causes of crisis, conspiracy thinking – all on one poster whose simplified critique of capitalism could also be found on a Nazi poster, if only “bigwigs” were replaced with “Jews.” This has nothing to do with a critique of the actual dynamics of the crisis, which are actually causing the distribution struggles to escalate on the surface. This is not an expression of a counter-principle to fascism, but merely its populist rival.

I finance my journalistic work largely through donations. If you like my writing, you are welcome to contribute – either via Patreon or Substack.


[1] https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/deutschland/linken-vorsitzende-schwerdtner-van-aken-gehalt-spende-100.html

[2] https://www.kpoe-graz.at/tag-der-offenen-konten-2023.phtml

[3] https://www.konicz.info/2025/03/23/alle-werden-wagenknecht/

[4] https://www.untergrund-blättle.ch/politik/theorie/emanzipation-in-der-krise-7306.html

[5] https://jungle.world/artikel/2025/14/autoland-ist-abgebrannt

[6] https://www.rosalux.de/fileadmin/rls_uploads/pdfs/Studien/Studien_3-24_Linke_Triggerpunkte_web.pdf

[7] https://www.konicz.info/2025/03/23/alle-werden-wagenknecht/

[8] https://www.konicz.info/2021/06/29/schreiben-wie-ein-internettroll/

[9] https://exitinenglish.com/2025/06/06/trump-at-the-inner-barrier-of-capital/

[10] https://www.konicz.info/2022/01/14/die-klimakrise-und-die-aeusseren-grenzen-des-kapitals/

[11] https://www.akweb.de/politik/russland-ukraine-konflikt-kampf-auf-der-titanic/

[12] https://www.konicz.info/2024/01/13/e-book-faschismus-im-21-jahrhundert/

[13] https://www.konicz.info/2024/05/29/aktualisierte-neuausgabe-klimakiller-kapital/

[14] https://www.konicz.info/2025/11/01/understanding-jd-vance/

[15] https://www.konicz.info/2025/01/28/schwarz-brauner-durchbruch-in-der-heissen-wahlkampfphase/

[16] https://www.zdfheute.de/video/zdfheute-live/reichinnek-bundestag-redebeitrag-debatte-migrationsgesetz-video-100.html

[17] https://x.com/antonnft6/status/1919821830660976804

[18] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/kommentar-zum-unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss-die-cdu-sollte-ihr-verhaeltnis-zur-linken-aendern-110466519.html

[19] https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/geheimdienst-gremium-reichinnek-afd-100.html

[20] https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Linken-Chefin-haelt-Erhoehung-des-Renteneintrittsalters-fuer-moeglich-article25948019.html

[21] https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/deutschland/rentenalter-linke-schwerdtner-aussage-korrektur-100.html

[22] https://www.wsws.org/de/articles/2024/01/04/link-j04.html

[23] https://www.konicz.info/2021/09/24/linkspartei-wagenknecht-statt-kampf-um-emanzipation/

[24] Workers are so underrepresented that the party had to introduce a quota in 2025. https://www.freitag.de/autoren/sebastian-baehr/die-linkspartei-will-eine-arbeiterquote-einfuehren-kann-das-klappen

[25] https://x.com/fr_dr_kniffel/status/1992268626490269713

[26] https://www.konicz.info/2013/03/15/happy-birthday-schweinesystem/

[27] https://exitinenglish.com/2025/06/06/trump-at-the-inner-barrier-of-capital/

[28] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/01/23/the-subjectless-rule-of-capital/

[29] https://x.com/tkonicz/status/1992636311359172882

[30] https://x.com/tkonicz/status/1928306598717403243

[31] https://konicz.substack.com/p/the-exodus-of-the-money-people

[32] https://www.konicz.info/2024/06/06/linkspartei-querfrontschrecken-ohne-ende/

[33] Robert Kurz, Die antideutsche Ideologie, Vom Antifaschismus zum Krisenimperialismus: Kritik des neuesten linksdeutschen Sektenwesens in seinen theoretischen Propheten, Münster, 2003, p. 14.

[34] https://exitinenglish.com/2024/08/03/ai-the-final-boost-to-automation/

[35] https://exitinenglish.com/2024/08/10/the-great-regression/

[36] Robert Kurz, Die antideutsche Ideologie, Vom Antifaschismus zum Krisenimperialismus: Kritik des neuesten linksdeutschen Sektenwesens in seinen theoretischen Propheten, Münster, 2003, p. 14f.

[37] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/02/22/emancipation-in-crisis/

[38] Robert Kurz, Die antideutsche Ideologie, Vom Antifaschismus zum Krisenimperialismus: Kritik des neuesten linksdeutschen Sektenwesens in seinen theoretischen Propheten, Münster, 2003, p. 227.

[39] In the US, the Democratic Socialists of America and the regressive rag Jacobin fulfill a similar crisis-ideological function.

[40] https://www.untergrund-blättle.ch/politik/theorie/den-transformationskampf-aufnehmen-fuer-ein-kaempferisches-krisenbewusstsein-009092.html

[41] https://www.konicz.info/2025/03/23/alle-werden-wagenknecht/

[42] https://x.com/tkonicz/status/1995044050798612824

[43] https://x.com/tkonicz/status/1995108620632002741

[44] https://x.com/tkonicz/status/1995110373213536561

[45] https://exitinenglish.com/2024/08/03/ai-the-final-boost-to-automation/

[46] https://x.com/tkonicz/status/1995107787139936504/photo/1

Originally published on konicz.info 11/30/2025

On the Altar of the Techno Gods

Prospects for new forms of crisis competition in the looming authoritarian era of widespread late-capitalist scarcity.

Tomasz Konicz

 Competition is for losers – Peter Thiel[1]

More RAM! There simply cannot be enough memory produced after OpenAI secured a large share of the world’s production of this essential computer component in a veritable coup. Prices for DRAM[2] (especially DDR5, and to a lesser extent DDR4) are literally exploding,[3] hardware manufacturers are panic buying,[4] while memory producers are discontinuing their consumer products in order to supply only the corporate market caught up in the speculative frenzy.[5] It is an insatiable hunger for RAM, fueled by the current AI bubble, which was heightened to hysterical levels by OpenAI in October 2025 – and which has now spread to other components such as graphics cards (video memory) and SSDs.

What happened? In October 2025, OpenAI was able to simultaneously conclude two supply contracts for computer memory with two of the world’s largest manufacturers – Samsung and SK Hynix – securing around 40% of global production of this component in one fell swoop.[6] Altman managed to keep the content of the negotiations secret – neither Samsung nor Hynix were aware that OpenAI was concluding similarly gigantic deals with their competitor, which is likely to have had a positive effect on the AI company’s respective contract terms.[7]  DRAM manufacturers could have at least pushed through higher prices if they had been aware that OpenAI was going to buy up almost half of the industry’s memory output. The deals might never have come about.

After this coup – the contracts were signed within a few hours of each other – became known, panic set in, bringing back memories of the shortage economy of Soviet-style state capitalism: All relevant IT market players, competitors from the AI industry, scalpers, and ordinary consumers willing to upgrade rushed to snap up production capacities, wholesale stocks, and memory kits. This panic-driven surge in demand was only indirectly related to actual demand: No one knows what other secret deals are being hatched by AI companies swimming in investor money. As a result, everyone is trying to secure their memory supply by hoarding purchases – which is leading to a general memory shortage. This high-tech hoarding is thus a consequence of the gigantic AI bubble, in which the US in particular finds itself.[8]

OpenAI is the first company that comes to mind here, as the AI corporation does more than just buy up 40% of finished DRAM production in order to use this memory in its data centers for capital valorization in the context of AI services. Altmann not only buys finished memory modules, but also the preliminary products, the wafers, which are now stored in warehouses. Around 900,000 DRAM wafers are purchased by OpenAI every month and simply stored without being “cut” and processed into RAM.[9] It is unclear when, and if at all, this memory will be used in the AI industry, which is struggling with infrastructure bottlenecks and energy and water shortages[10],[11] – not to mention the persistent teething problems and practical application hurdles that arise during the actual implementation of AI techniques in the rationalization of real workflows in many economic sectors.[12]

Monopolistic Crisis Competition?

What Altmann is practicing with his memory deal could be described as monopolistic crisis competition. It is a crisis form of market competition that directly and immediately aims to achieve a monopoly or a dominant market position. OpenAI wants to go from startup to monopolist in one fell swoop. Control over a large part of RAM production is motivated not only by the expansion of its own AI capacities, but also by the sabotage and obstruction of competition. The memory, which is gathering dust as a wafer precursor in OpenAI’s warehouses, cannot be used by competing companies to expand their own AI models. It is not the development of the most efficient and reliable automation systems that is decisive here, but control over the necessary resources, precursors, and/or production capacities.

“Competition is for losers” – Sam Altman seems to have taken to heart the lecture given by right-wing billionaire and Trump supporter Peter Thiel, which he introduced at Stanford a few years ago under this title.[13] In his remarks on successful corporate strategies, Thiel argued in a somewhat involuntary Marxist manner, openly advocating monopoly as the ultimate goal of market competition. According to Thiel, capital-rich corporations/startups must quickly copy the innovations of the technological avant-garde and expand rapidly. Pumped full of investor money, they ensure rapid growth by offering favorable entry conditions for their products and services, so that once they have achieved a dominant market position, they can slowly tighten the screws. This is the blueprint for the often lamented “enshitification” of the internet, for the gradual deterioration of the terms of use of many online services.

Google, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon – there is no way around these tech giants in their respective market segments. This now leaves these companies, who often achieved their market dominance through temporary periods of loss, with all options open for profit maximization. On the one hand, OpenAI operates according to the same pattern, with the startup expanding its AI services as quickly as possible at great loss, even foregoing advertising revenue in order to push for monetization once it has established a dominant market position.

But the new factor here is the “scarcity strategy” that the AI company is apparently pursuing. It is also a kind of crisis hedging, a safeguard for the coming crisis. Sam Altman seems to be aware of the precariousness of his situation. The players in the current boom are well aware that many startups will not survive the inevitable bursting of this AI bubble. OpenAI is the “early bird,” the startup that—unlike Google, Meta, or Microsoft—has no profitable business lines that could feed the loss-making AI business. When the bubble bursts, when the gap between imminent profit expectations and bleak market reality becomes unbridgeable, OpenAI can at least hope to survive thanks to its control of 40% of memory production.

The End of Plenty

Altman’s attempt to hinder competition by buying up memory and thus dominate the AI market also highlights the state of industrial production conditions in the global high-tech industry. The market economy ideology of rising demand being immediately satisfied by rapidly growing market supply is currently colliding with oligopolistic reality in an industrial sector characterized by gigantic investment hurdles. Three corporations (Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix) are responsible for more than 90% of global DRAM production, whereby the construction of new manufacturing facilities would require billions in investments in highly complex machinery, workflows, and scarce skilled personnel as a presupposition. The aforementioned memory manufacturers are now in capitalist heaven: there appears to be a tacit agreement to fully utilize existing production capacities without pumping billions into new fabs, while DDR5 memory kits, which were available for around €80 six months ago, are now trading for just under €400.

As already mentioned, the IT industry is well aware that it has been caught up in a bubble. And that is precisely why there will be hardly any newcomers entering memory production, as no one can predict when the AI bonanza will come to a miserable end. The risk is simply too great to invest billions in factories during the boom only to find yourself in a market flooded with cheap memory once the boom is over. The tendency of late capitalist commodity production to constantly increase investment expenditure is particularly evident in the “inflexible” supply in the current memory crisis. This is precisely why OpenAI considered the strategy of “artificial scarcity” to be promising.

This artificial shortage created in the storage market is merely a reflection of the increasing actual scarcity of resources, raw materials, intermediate products, and energy sources that the late capitalist world system faces in its boundless drive for valorization. Microsoft, for example, is sitting on a mountain of unused, extremely expensive AI graphics cards that the company bought up during the current boom without ever using them.[14] There is simply not enough electricity or the necessary energy infrastructure to use all this computing power to train new AI models. The AI bubble, which consumes dystopian amounts of energy, could thus run out of hot air not only because of the discrepancy between gigantic investments and meager returns, but also because of bottlenecks in energy sources or resources. This fundamentally distinguishes the current AI boom from the US real estate bubble, which also fueled enormous resources in a speculative construction boom – but which collapsed due to its internal contradictions, namely the accumulation of bad mortgages by the exhausted US middle class.

The external, ecological barrier to capital thus also appears to set certain limits on the speculative bubble formation that has so far prolonged the systemic crisis in the 21st century.[15] However, shortages and undersupply are emerging in many other economic sectors, in raw materials such as rare earths or lithium, or in foods such as cocoa or coffee, which are already suffering from the climate crisis. Persistent inflation,[16] especially in food prices, is fueled not least by this “external barrier” to capital – while the capitalist drive for profit has only one answer to all these problems: more growth. Capitalism is thus degenerating in its old age into an economy of scarcity à la the GDR, minus the social characteristics and egalitarian population structure of state socialism.[17]

Efforts to control scarce or artificially scarce resources and/or intermediate products in order to achieve a monopolistic position are therefore likely to become a common competitive strategy in the future. What OpenAI is doing is only the beginning of a new era of monopolistic competition in late capitalism, whose compulsion to valorize is increasingly coming up against the external, ecological barrier of capital – the finiteness of resources and the full onset of climate catastrophe.[18] The differences between market competition and the usual geopolitical and crisis-imperialist strategies of resource plundering will thus become increasingly blurred.[19]

The Longing of IT Capital for an Active State

Until now, whenever a bubble formed in the 21st century, the state’s big moment came only after it burst, when it was time to cushion the devastating economic consequences with loose monetary policy and trillion-dollar crisis and investment programs. But this time, the AI gurus are calling on the state for help in the middle of the bubble. It is precisely the absurd, dystopian energy hunger of the AI industry, its inability to quickly modernize the infrastructure ruined during the neoliberal decades, that already necessitates an economically “active state.” The high-tech oligarchs are mutating into a real-life satire of Keynesian ideologues, as they wreak havoc in the milieu of old-left parties.

The industry – whose leaders normally have a penchant for right-wing libertarian market ideology – is seeking government subsidies, investments, or guarantees on several levels.[20] OpenAI has been pressuring the Trump administration, which is politically closely intertwined with the IT oligarchy, for months to extend tax breaks to the AI industry, specifically to infrastructure investments in data centers. The Bloomberg news service referred to this as Silicon Valley socialism.[21] Furthermore, taxpayers are to bear the risks of these investments in the form of government guarantees for corresponding loans, in order to reduce borrowing costs and expand investment activity.[22] The political interdependence between Silicon Valley and the Trump administration is to be followed by the economic interdependence of big business and big politics, as is characteristic of fascist forms of crisis in capitalist rule.

The insane expansion of the industry, especially the industry leader OpenAI, also seems to be aimed at simply exceeding a critical mass above which, in the event of a crisis, corporate bankruptcy must be prevented for economic reasons. The dizzying borrowing, the $1.4 trillion investment projects that are having very real economic effects, the pursuit of the closest possible ties to government financial flows—all of this suggests that Altman simply wants to make his AI corporation too big to fail. This is similar to what happens with systemic banks in financial market crises. This strategy of growing beyond the possibility of bankruptcy is so obvious that Altman felt compelled to publicly contradict it.[23]

Another argument used by AI capitalists to legitimize government support consists of the usual geopolitical competition considerations. If the US does not pump billions of taxpayer dollars into the AI industry, China will win the race for new military-grade technology, according to the usual line of argument. The whole thing is garnished with the usual bootlicking and ass-kissing necessary to secure the goodwill of the Mad King in the White House. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang,[24] is not only keen to maintain the best possible relations with the military-industrial complex and the Pentagon, with whom the company cooperates in the development of AI-supported weapon systems.[25] Huang also had no qualms about paying homage to Trump in bizarre statements, by praising the US president for courageously standing in the way of the “demonization of energy.”[26] The CEO of the world’s largest corporation, who sounded like a troll lurking on Twitter or Reddit, was apparently cheering the US’s departure from any form of climate protection.

This seems to be the political operating cost of the AI bubble. All the major players in the AI bubble are aware that they are in a speculative bubble, the industry knows that a crash is inevitable – and a large part of their activity during this boom consists precisely of preparing for the coming crash, maintaining good contacts with a state apparatus, securing themselves as comprehensively as possible in order to survive the crash and then rise to dominance in the “cleansed” market. The industry is simply dominated by the hope of hitting the big jackpot as a survivor of this cleansing market storm.

Farewell to the Illusion of Consumer Capitalism

Why all this crazy effort, such as burning vast quantities of energy sources in the midst of the rapidly unfolding climate crisis? Critics of the AI industry contrast this massive burning of resources with the digital rubbish spewed out by generative AI to flood the internet. A new word has already been coined for this: AI slop. But this is only a by-product that is only significant for the culture industry.[27]

From an economic perspective, the holy grail of the industry is the production of AI systems that can take over as many fields of work as possible, either completely or at least partially – the AI gurus simply want to sell automation.[28] This is where the dizzying potential for growth and profit lies. This is the real jackpot. Those who survive the coming crash can hope to lead a total transformation of the late capitalist mode of production that promises fantastic growth prospects and profits.[29] But this is also where the insurmountable central contradiction of the capitalist mode of production lies, its internal barrier, which is becoming fully apparent and generally visible in the AI boom.

The crisis process that began with the stagflation period of the 1970s and the IT revolution of the 1980s, which was prolonged in the 21st century by means of the globalized financial bubble economy on credit now finds its crisis-ridden conclusion in the AI revolution.[30] The class struggle fetishized by the old left is only a surface phenomenon; it is an intra-capitalist conflict over the distribution of surplus value, fought between variable capital (“the working class”) and the capitalist functional elites. What is decisive, however, is the internal contradiction of the valorization process itself: the substance of capital is wage labor, but at the same time, due to competition-driven rationalization, capital strives to minimize wage labor in the production process. The decline of the industrial workforce in most industrialized countries, which was the result of the first IT revolution in the 1980s, is now spreading to large areas of the service sector and the IT sector.[31]

Since the implementation of Fordism after World War II, mass demand from a broad middle class was considered a central economic presupposition for the valorization process of capital; mass production had to find mass demand—and this illusion of consumer capitalism was maintained even during the neoliberal era within the framework of the financial bubble economy on credit. Even as the industrial workforce dwindled, the financialization of capitalism continued to generate demand and jobs, albeit at the price of increasing financial instability and periodic crashes. Capital needs solvent mass demand in order to complete the cycle of valorization in commodity production. Otherwise, the valorization process collapses in on itself.

And it is precisely this ideology of consumer capitalism, based on economically necessary mass demand, that is already becoming insubstantial and hollow in the rise of the AI bubble. Speculative fervor is leading to inflation, not to an expansion of consumption, as in previous bubbles. Consumers are already feeling this, especially in the high-tech sector and within the gaming scene. On the one hand, the current artificial shortage is making consumers realize that mass consumption is effectively being capped in a substantial part of the consumer electronics sector in order to fuel the AI boom. The market is simply supplying the most affluent customers – and those are corporate customers. And it is precisely this clientele that the AI industry is primarily targeting with its automation products.

However, this is only the beginning of the coming AI crisis, assuming the teething problems and start-up difficulties in the automation of wage labor actually be overcome, as the industry hopes. But there can hardly be enough consumers if wage workers are replaced by AI systems or paid less. The old Fordist equation, according to which workers constitute the sales market at the same time as their demand, will no longer work—precisely because the globalized deficit economy of the neoliberal era has exhausted itself. Programmers, for example, are already successfully using AI as a tool, resulting in substantial productivity gains that are reducing working days to working hours.[32] Strictly speaking, AI does not replace programmers in individual work processes; it only makes them more productive and reduces the demands of the profession. The labor market then takes care of the rest.

The AI Cult and the Automatic Subject

Capitalist consumers then simply become superfluous human material, while the corporations and companies that massively increase their productivity with the help of the AI industry can no longer find buyers for their goods and services. The subjectless rule of capital inevitably threatens to shatter on this internal contradiction, on its internal barrier, as soon as the AI bubble runs out of hot speculative air. It is clearly evident—even the old left, highly trained in crisis ignorance, can hardly overlook this.[33]

The doubly free wage laborer, as produced by capitalism, is thus acutely threatened with extinction in the current crisis. The system will consequently enter fully into the post-capitalist transformation that is already looming. And it is fascism that seeks to steer this inevitable transformation process in a barbaric direction: On the one hand, through the introduction of forced labor, as indicated in German pre-fascism or in the prison system of the US. On the other hand, through the marginalization, exclusion, deportation or – as a last resort – simply the extermination of the “superfluous humanity” that capital produces in its agony.

The growth mania, the breakneck expansion of the AI industry, also implies all too clearly that the IT princes of Silicon Valley – who effectively want to replace humanity – have already expanded the fascist death cult of the 21st century, as it bubbles up on both sides of the Atlantic, with their own facets. The AI industry’s growth mania, which exceeds anything seen before, is also driven by an ideological factor. The transhumanism rampant in Silicon Valley forms the perfect ideology for the openly misanthropic final phase of the capitalist systemic crisis, in which only blind delusion can obscure the evident destruction of the ecological and social foundations of human civilization under the most absurd ideological contortions.

Transhumanism does not need to do this; it sees humanity as nothing more than a starting aid, a bootloader for artificial intelligence, which is supposed to inherit humanity, so to speak. That is why transhumanists do not care whether the hunger for resources and energy of AI capital further drives the climate crisis, or whether data centers are draining groundwater from entire regions.[34] They see themselves in a race against time—the self-optimizing superintelligence known as singularity, the artificial AI god that transhumanism wants to create, is to become reality before humanity’s capital depletes the foundations of life.

In fact, transhumanism wants to transform the real-abstract automatic subject of capital into reality, to concretize it, to breathe artificial life into the fetishism of capital throughout society. If necessary, the world will be sacrificed to the desired techno god on the altar of the AI industry. And no one knows exactly what the IT titans are checking out in their AI labs, as the Trump administration, which is allied with the industry, gives them a free hand in this regard. As mentioned at the beginning, OpenAI has secured 40 percent of global DRAM production – and we can only hope that this is really just a monopolistic competition strategy.

I finance my journalistic work largely through donations. If you like my writing, you are welcome to contribute – either via Patreon or Substack.


[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Fx5Q8xGU8k

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_random-access_memory

[3] https://geizhals.de/kingston-fury-beast-schwarz-dimm-kit-32gb-kf560c30bbek2-32-a3164911.html

[4] https://winfuture.de/news,154997.html

[5] https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2025/12/after-nearly-30-years-crucial-will-stop-selling-ram-to-consumers/

[6] https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram-deal

[7] https://www.slashcam.com/news/single/OpenAI-s-Secret-DRAM-Deal–Is-Sam-Altman-to-Blame–19700.html

[8] https://www.konicz.info/2025/11/09/die-kuenstliche-intelligenzblase/

[9] https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/openais-stargate-project-to-consume-up-to-40-percent-of-global-dram-output-inks-deal-with-samsung-and-sk-hynix-to-the-tune-of-up-to-900-000-wafers-per-month

[10] https://jungle.world/artikel/2024/16/kuenstliche-intelligenz-energieverbrauch-klimawandel-mehr-hunger-mehr-durst

[11] https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram-deal

[12] https://www.konicz.info/2025/11/09/die-kuenstliche-intelligenzblase/

[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Fx5Q8xGU8k

[14] https://redmondmag.com/blogs/generationai/2025/12/microsoft-is-sitting-on-a-pile-of-unused-gpus.aspx

[15] https://www.konicz.info/2022/01/14/die-klimakrise-und-die-aeusseren-grenzen-des-kapitals/

[16] https://www.konicz.info/2021/08/08/dreierlei-inflation/

[17] https://www.konicz.info/2021/10/14/ddr-minus-sozialismus/

[18] https://www.konicz.info/2022/01/14/die-klimakrise-und-die-aeusseren-grenzen-des-kapitals/

[19] https://www.konicz.info/2022/06/23/was-ist-krisenimperialismus/

[20] https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/warren-presses-trump-administration-on-plans-to-prop-up-openai-and-big-tech-with-taxpayer-dollars-at-the-expense-of-working-class-americans

[21] https://news.bloombergtax.com/tax-insights-and-commentary/openais-tax-subsidy-efforts-amount-to-silicon-valley-socialism

[22] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/openai-floats-federal-support-for-ai-infrastructure-what-should-the-public-expect/

[23] https://www.ft.com/content/5835a5a3-36db-41d7-9944-d9823dbdffc5

[24] Nvidia graphics cards form almost the entire technical hardware basis of the AI boom. The graphics card manufacturer has now become the most valuable company in the world.

[25] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUrJVdF2me0

[26] https://gizmodo.com/nvidia-supercomputers-for-trump-2000678264

[27] https://exitinenglish.com/2024/07/07/ai-and-the-culture-industry/

[28] https://exitinenglish.com/2024/08/03/ai-the-final-boost-to-automation/

[29] https://www.konicz.info/2025/11/09/die-kuenstliche-intelligenzblase/

[30] https://www.telepolis.de/article/Die-Krise-kurz-erklaert-3392493.html

[31] https://exitinenglish.com/2024/08/03/ai-the-final-boost-to-automation/

[32] https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2025/12/how-do-ai-coding-agents-work-we-look-under-the-hood/?comments-page=1#comments

[33] https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/artificial-intelligence/bernie-sanders-calls-for-robot-tax-to-protect-workers-from-the-impacts-of-ai/ar-AA1O5s7I

[34] https://www.konicz.info/2017/11/15/kuenstliche-intelligenz-und-kapital/

Originally published on konicz.info on 01/05/2026

Understanding JD Vance

Why is the globalization process turning into protectionism and deglobalization?

Tomasz Konicz

Olaf Scholz was moved to tears. The taz published a glowing review. Netflix has made it into a movie. We are talking about Hillbilly Elegy, by the incumbent Vice President of the United States, JD Vance.[1] The autobiographical book describes the social disintegration suffered by many peripheral regions of the United States in the course of the waves of deindustrialization of recent decades from a socially conservative and culturalist perspective: drug addiction in the family, family violence, release for adoption, as well as the luck of getting an expensive law degree as a hillbilly kid, formed the stages of the vice president’s career.

JD Vance was therefore incredibly lucky, as the social hurdles for rising from the lower class in the US are similarly high as in Germany. After this, the usual reflexes of demarcation set in, with which upstarts from the lower class often try to distinguish themselves from their class of origin. Cultural deficits of the hillbillies, a lack of work ethic and abuse of the welfare state were listed by Vance in the Hillbilly Elegy in order to ideologically process the capitalist crisis process that has deindustrialized large regions of the USA since the 1980s – and it was precisely this right-wing perspective that probably made the book a bestseller in late neoliberalism, which was acclaimed from the FAZ to the taz.

But the social disruption in the crisis regions of the US, which Vance described and which shaped him, has solidified and created veritable ghost towns in the southern United States. In the meantime, an entire YouTube genre has emerged in which Youtubers popularize the morbid charm of decaying settlements. Whether in Georgia,[2] South Carolina,[3] Oklahoma[4] or Arkansas[5] – the decay is visible everywhere.

The vice president’s social background from the lower class, which is largely left to its own devices in these crisis regions, comes to the fore time and again. His impulsive public reproach of Ukrainian President Zelensky, when he pointed out that he never thanked Trump, can only be understood against the backdrop of the improbable rise of an authoritarian character who overcame all social barriers, in the course of which the future vice president has certainly had to thank Trump countless times for the mercy of not having to sink into misery. In moments such as the public exchange of blows between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office, the authoritarian reflex breaks out openly – Zelensky is supposed to be just as compliant as Vance had to be.

Jackson, Kentucky, the town where JD Vance grew up, is still lucky with a poverty rate of 20%, while in many regions mass poverty and depopulation have long since become the norm.[6] Many settlements and small towns evoke memories of the famous post-Soviet wastelands – with the difference that in the US it is hardly possible to view the ruins undisturbed, as is the case in Russia, because even in state of decay, they are still considered “private property” and jealously watched over.[7]

US Deindustrialization and the Inner Barrier of Capital

The cause of the pervasive decline that has gone unnoticed for decades is currently haunting the right-wing US administration of which JD Vance is a member. For more than 40 years,[8] employment in the industrial sector in the United States has been declining, from nearly 20 million industrial workers in 1978 to about 13 million in 2023.[9] Between 2002 and 2022, the number of industrial establishments in the United States fell by 45,000, a decline of about 14% within two decades.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the US industrial workforce shrank only slowly, interrupted by periods of stagnating employment. However, much of the job losses in the US industrial sector occurred in the 21st century. The bursting of the stock market bubble in the US high-tech sector in 2000 marked the first massive job losses, with the number of industrial workers shrinking from more than 17 million to around 14 million in 2003. The deflation of the great transatlantic real estate bubble together with the subsequent recession triggered the second massive wave of layoffs from 2009, as a result of which the industrial workforce shrank to 11.5 million, only to rise to just under 13 million in the following years in the wake of economic stimulus measures, where it has stagnated ever since.[10]

The crisis process of capital has thus been leaving behind a clear empirical trace for decades, which has so far been ignored by public opinion. This is the manifestation of the inner barrier of capital (Robert Kurz), which, in a fetishistic crisis process, gets rid of its substance, the labor that creates value in commodity production, due to competition-mediated surges of rationalization.[11] This inner, moving contradiction of capital, which outwardly appears as an “overproduction crisis,”[12] forms the decisive, central contradiction of the capitalist mode of production.[13] Capital must therefore move, fleeing from its internal contradiction into ever new markets and branches of production in which masses of wage labor are valorized, which bourgeois economics perceives as industrial structural change.

The social disruption of the United States, the rust belts, ghost towns and social hotspots in which JD Vance grew up are an expression of the failure of this “industrial structural change” due to the tremendous rationalization surge in industrial production triggered by the IT revolution. The rise of the IT industry also created jobs, but at the same time every new branch of industry interacts with the economy as a whole, and the effect of the computer and telecommunications industry was a huge surge in rationalization that led to a massive reduction in wage labor in the production of commodities – and thus undermined the foundations of the capitalist labor society. This is also clear from the employment figures quoted above.

The inner barrier of capital is more than just an “overproduction crisis” that could be overcome by the “creative destruction” (Schumpeter) of overcapacity. Capital has become too productive for its own good, so to speak; due to the high level of global productivity, no new markets or labor-intensive fields of exploitation are emerging, meaning that there can no longer be any “adjustment crises” – and it is this inner contradictory development of capital that is leaving socially and ecologically scorched earth in its wake. It is this crisis process that propelled Trump into the White House and helped him to a second presidency after the US Democrats failed to find an answer[14] to the pauperization and deindustrialization of the US.[15] Supporters of Trump’s protectionism like to refer to economists such as David Autor, whose calculations show that around 2.5 million American industrial jobs were lost to China between 1999 and 2013.[16]

However, the relationship between job losses in the industrial sector and the actual output of industry makes it clear that it was not only the relocation of industrial jobs abroad that led to the deindustrialization of the US. Between 1980 and 2000, during the same period in which the industrial workforce in the United States fell from just under 19 million to 17 million,[17] US industrial production roughly doubled (according Fed data, in inflation-adjusted prices from 2017).[18] Rising industrial production with declining employment in the industrial sector is therefore an expression of the rationalization push in the production of goods in the course of the IT revolution from the 1980s onwards; this is the empirically verifiable consequence of the aforementioned inner barrier of capital. Even in the 21st century, when the US industrial workforce shrank massively (from 17 to just under 13 million), the output of this shrinking industrial workforce stagnated without a corresponding decline (the crisis-related slumps in industrial output in 2009 and 2020 were quickly reversed).[19]

According to the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), value added in the United States amounted to around $2.93 trillionin 2024 (adjusted for inflation in 2017 prices, it was 2.4 trillion), with the United States paradoxically growing primarily in foreign trade.[20] Manufacturing exports have more than doubled over the last two decades, from $622.3 billion in 2002 to $1.63 trillion in 2024. What is Trump and his entourage upset about? Well, in the same period – the heyday of globalization – the volume of world trade has more than tripled: from $4.9 trillion in 2000, to $9.8 trillion in 2010, to $15.7 trillion in 2023. The American share of world trade has thus fallen – to 7.9% in 2023.

In addition, the economic weight of industry has rapidly diminished in the age of neoliberal globalization, which has been accompanied by the financialization of capitalism and the formation of a credit-driven financial bubble economy in the US. The share of industry in the gross domestic product of the United States fell from 15% in 2000 to just over 10% in 2021.[21]

These opposing trends in the capitalist production of goods – job losses with rising output – were also noticed and addressed by US monetary policy. As early as 2014, the US Federal Reserve noted that industrial production in the United States was continuing to grow (with the exception of short-term slumps caused by the crisis), while employment was not, meaning that “industrial growth is not synonymous with industrial job growth.”[22] The Fed offered “productivity growth” and a shift in sectoral focus towards “computers and electronics” as explanations.

Scientific and technological progress continues to create new industries, such as the renewable energy sector, but these new industries can no longer absorb the redundant workforce from obsolete industries due to the general level of productivity achieved.[23] The precarization of working life, the emergence of miserable jobs in the service sector, the erosion of the middle class, the emergence of a US prison industry for the purpose of repressive crisis management, the socioeconomic decoupling of entire regions of the US mentioned at the beginning – they are the result of the manifest inner barrier of capital, which is reaching the limits of its development both socially and ecologically.

Trump’s Protectionist Response to the Crisis

And it is this crisis, latent for decades and ignored or normalized by the dominant neoliberal mainstream for decades, that the Trump administration needs to somehow alleviate or overcome—precisely because it has crossed the Rubicon toward fascism. In many policy areas, the White House is already operating beyond the rule of law to consolidate authoritarian structures and reinforce new methods of repression – such as the unlawful deportation of people to maximum security prisons in Central America. The same applies to corruption charges and possible internal deals in the chaotic disputes surrounding US customs and trade policy.[24] In a sense, a large part of the Trump administration can no longer afford to be voted out of office, as they would find themselves in court very quickly after losing power due to the massive violations of the law.

In order to consolidate the post-democratic path already taken and establish a stable authoritarian regime, the US right must somehow confront the crisis that flushed Trump into the White House in the first place. Historically, all fascist regimes have only been able to consolidate their power by finding repressive or expansionist responses to the crises of capital that washed them into power without touching the foundations of the system – this also applies to the Nazis with their Reich Labor Service and the armaments policy that inevitably led to the Second World War.

In all likelihood, presidential elections will still be held in the United States four years from now, and despite all the possibilities of manipulation, the post-democratic, authoritarian right in the US must enjoy a certain level of support in order to win even rigged elections and complete the fascization of the US. In other words, the Trump administration must provide social relief to its voter base to avoid ending up in jail in four years. Trump could be spared such a fate due to a Supreme Court ruling that effectively guaranteed the president immunity from prosecution in office. But members of the government like JD Vance cannot count on this.

For the majority of the profiteers, racketeers, and networks of influence operating in the shadows of the US government apparatus, there is no turning back.[25] They must try to realize the authoritarian – ultimately fascist – option, to finish the authoritarian path they have taken – and this is precisely what makes the situation in the US so dangerous. Since a policy of redistribution, as preached by Bernie Sanders, is out of the question for the post-democratic US right for the time being, the only remaining option is trade war and protectionism.[26]

And, from a narrow-minded national perspective, the connections are clear: the deindustrialization of the United States goes hand in hand with the creation of massive trade deficits with China and German Europe in the age of globalization. Last year, the United States posted a new record trade deficit in goods of $1,211 billion (the aggregate deficit in goods and services was $918.4 billion),[27] which is well above the highs during the US housing bubble in 2006 ($786 billion) and the post-Covid era in 2022 ($971 billion).[28] Last year, the US recorded a deficit of $295 billion with the People’s Republic of China alone,[29] while the figure for the EU was $235 billion, of which Germany accounted for $84 billion.[30] The large US deficit with Mexico is in turn the result of Washington’s nearshoring strategy under Biden, in which the US’s southern neighbor was turned into an extended industrial workbench in order to reduce dependence on China.[31]

Trade surpluses are used to export deindustrialization and debt, which also formed the core of the German beggar-thy-neighbor economic model in the heyday of globalization.[32] This connection is also manifested in the share of industrial production in total GDP,[33] which in 2023 was around 26% in China, 18.5% in Germany and only around 10% in the US (in the 1970s it was still just under 25%).[34]

From the narrow-minded national perspective of the American right, which cannot perceive the crisis process outlined above due to its ideological blindness, it appears to be a simple fraud – China, as well as the alleged “partners” in Western Europe, is expanding its industries at the expense of the US. The sheer hatred towards the EU that JD Vance expressed during his scandalous appearance at the Munich Security Conference,[35] and the open hostility towards Europeans that became evident in the leaked Signal discussions by the Trump administration, with its amateurish communication, can be easily explained – a glance at the trade balance between the EU and the US is enough.[36] The misery, the social neglect that Vance experienced in his youth can be projected onto an imaginary enemy – and it is precisely this socialization in the lower class that makes him forget all diplomatic manners in his attacks against the European “trade cheats.”

The efforts of the economic locations to rehabilitate their own industry in the crisis by means of trade surpluses at the expense of their competitors is only logical – as long as no systemic alternative emerges, this is actually inevitable within the logic of the crisis. It is the logic of last man standing.[37] The simple economic fact that trade surpluses must lead to deindustrialization and deficit formation in the deficit countries has been invoked for years against Germany, the world champion of trade surpluses – for example by the Obama administration or by France, which criticized Germany’s export surpluses during the euro crisis. Back then, in 2017, the then Economics Minister Zypries forbade any criticism: there was no need to “apologize” for the fact that the German economy was “one of the strongest in the world.”[38]

Now that Trump wants to put an end to Germany’s longstanding beggar-thy-neighbor policy with the mallet of sheer protectionism, people in Berlin have suddenly become meek. Europe has the short end of the stick, headlined the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) in reaction to Trump’s “tariff orgy” at the beginning of April. A tariff conflict is not arm wrestling and the Europeans would do well not to instinctively react to Washington’s new trade barriers with counter-tariffs.[39] The difference between this and Berlin’s stance in the euro crisis, for example, toward deficit countries such as Greece, is almost laughable – what a difference a few thousand nuclear warheads can make. However, top German journalism, as cultivated by the FAZ, is characterized by the fact that it does not even mention Germany’s trade surpluses, even if they are the basis of the upcoming trade conflict. This is precisely why Trump actually has the upper hand – because in the course of a trade war, the trade balances will tend to even out, which would reduce Germany’s surpluses and America’s deficits.

But why did it take so long to escalate? The deindustrialization that is now being lamented took place over decades—even during Trump’s first term, his protectionist impulse could be contained—but this time it will not be the case. Protectionism and tariffs are here to stay. And, most importantly, why does Trump keep backtracking, why does he seem to back down only to impose new tariffs a few weeks later?

Nonstop zigzagging! What’s the point? Although there is a tendency to erect ever higher trade barriers, this is happening in the context of seemingly chaotic disputes that are simply the result of the underlying systemic contradictions.

The Era of Neoliberal Crisis Postponement

And it was precisely the financialization of capitalism, together with the corresponding globalization process, that was able to prolong this internal contradiction of capital in the neoliberal age and enabled the late capitalist world system to run on credit, so to speak. Until well into the 21st century, the prevailing view in the core was that an industrial society was an obsolete relic of the 20th century, that capitalism had now evolved into a service or financial services society, or even an information society. These discourses, which have been thoroughly disgraced in the wake of the crises of recent years, were based on the deficit conjunctures of the neoliberal era.

Since the implementation of neoliberalism, global debt has risen faster than global economic output, mainly as a result of increasing financial bubbles. The figures are clear: In the 1970s, global debt amounted to around 110% of global economic output. At the end of the neoliberal era, when the great liquidity bubble burst after the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, the global debt burden amounted to 258% of global economic output.[40]

In addition to a number of regional speculative manias and financial crashes, the globalized, financial market-driven capitalism of the neoliberal era gave rise to three major bubbles: the dotcom bubble that burst at the turn of the millennium, in which the hope of a new regime of accumulation (“information society”) led to feverish speculation in high-tech stocks; the great transatlantic real estate bubble in Europe and the US,[41] which ran out of speculative steam between 2007 and 2008; and the gigantic liquidity bubble of the central banks,[42] which was only brought to an end by the pandemic along with the inflationary surge of 2020.[43]

As long as the dotcom bubble was on the rise, as long as the United States was caught up in real estate fever, the erosion processes in industry hardly seemed to be noticed – after all, the economy was doing well, the construction sector was booming, cheap money was flooding the financial sphere, and the great financial flood was lifting all boats. Thus, declining industrial regions and marginalized and precarious wage earners could be easily ignored and hidden from public view in core societies. The repressive crisis administration did the rest.

The US was at the center of this globalized financial bubble economy – the inflated financial market of the United States produced the aforementioned bubble-driven deficit economies, while at the same time Washington’s trade deficits reached ever new record levels: from $77 billion in 1990, to $381 billion in 2000, to $740 billion in the crisis year 2008, to a peak of $951 billion in 2022. Last year, in 2024, the US trade deficit amounted to $918 billion dollars (figures for goods and services).[44] So-called deficit cycles emerged: export-fixated industrialized countries such as China, Japan or the FRG exported their surpluses to the US, while a ghostly flow of American securities and debt instruments to Beijing or Tokyo moved in the opposite direction.[45] Japan and China, which run large surpluses vis-à-vis the US, are consequently also the largest creditors of the United States.

Globalization is in fact based on these global deficit cycles.[46] Export-oriented economic areas thus maintain sales markets, while the USA experiences deficit cycles. (Incidentally, a similar deficit cycle developed in Europe after the introduction of the euro, where the Federal Republic was able to sell its export surpluses until this European debt bubble burst).[47] The dollar, in its function as the world’s reserve currency, enabled Washington to borrow de facto without restrictions at very low cost, which is why consumer spending accounts for a large part of the United States’ GDP (in 2023 it was 68% of GDP!).[48]

The figures here are also clear, as illustrated by the long-term development of interest rates on ten-year US bonds: The interest rate on these Treasuries fell from around 8% at the beginning of the 1990s, to over 5% at the turn of the millennium, to sometimes less than 2% in the second decade of the 21st century.[49] In the crisis year 2020, extensive central bank purchases were even able to push the interest rate on these government securities into the per mille range for a short time. To visualize the success of this financial bubble economy, it is sufficient to contrast it with the national debt of the US, which rose from $3.5 trillion (1990) to $5.6 trillion (2002) and $23 trillion (2020) to $36.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2024.[50]

The apparent magic of the global financial bubble economy running on credit becomes glaringly apparent here: Washington’s credit conditions became ever more favorable, while the mountains of debt could be driven ever higher. The United States as the world’s financial center thus still resembles a black hole in the global economy, which absorbs a large part of global surplus production through trade deficits – and thus has a stabilizing effect on a global economy suffering from structural overproduction.

This financial bubble economy, which was growing in size and instability, thus gave rise to the aforementioned deficit booms, which also simply created sales opportunities for the commodity-producing industry through credit-generated demand. However, as soon as a speculative bubble burst, the states had to stabilize the system through interventions and economic stimulus packages, which encouraged further deficit formation and the development of new deficit booms and financial bubbles. The economic policy measures that served to alleviate the consequences of the crisis also gave rise to new speculation – the speculative fire was extinguished with gasoline.

The Liquidity Bubble and The Impending Shift to Protectionism

The costs of stabilizing this gigantic financial sphere continued to increase as each bubble burst.[51] And this is precisely the cause of the end of this global financial bubble economy. The bursting of the last bubble during the pandemic-induced crisis forced crisis policymakers to turn off the money tap for the global deficit economy.

In 2000, when the dotcom bubble burst, the brief recession was quickly overcome by a phase of very low key interest rates – which in turn made mortgages attractive and provided the initial spark for the real estate bubble.[52] With the crisis surge in 2008, when the major real estate bubbles in Europe and America burst and the US plunged into the worst recession in post-war history, zero interest rates were no longer enough. Monetary policy switched to buying up all the junk securities that had sent the financial sphere into a state of shock following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This emergency measure, which was used to buy up the infamous mortgage securitizations, developed into a permanent monetary policy that ultimately amounted to sheer money printing.[53]

The central banks bought up securities in order to inject further liquidity into the financial sphere and stabilize it. This absurd central bank financial capitalism was able to maintain the liquidity bubble over a period of around a decade.[54] This can be clearly seen in the balance sheets of central banks, especially the Fed.[55] In 2007 – on the eve of the housing crisis – the Fed held securities worth less than $880 billion. Just two years later, in 2009, it held $2.2 trillion, which swelled to $4.4 trillion by 2014. This high level was maintained – maturing securities were replaced by new purchases – only to almost double the balance sheet total to almost $9 trillion after the outbreak of the pandemic through extreme money printing.

And this money printing did not trigger a surge in inflation, mainly because the liquidity it generated remained in the financial superstructure – the prices of financial market goods shot up to ever greater heights as part of the liquidity bubble that formed a veritable everything bubble, in the final phase of which even speculative excesses with meme stocks such as Gamestop became common.[56]

Low bond yields, low key interest rates, swelling central bank balance sheets and a global mountain of debt that seemed to be able to grow faster than global economic output forever – the 2020 crisis put an end to this financial market-driven central bank capitalism.[57] The surge in inflation that followed in the wake of the pandemic forced central banks to make a drastic U-turn and the expansionary monetary policy had to be discontinued: Key interest rates skyrocketed (from almost 0 to more than 5%), bond-buying programs were discontinued or drastically reduced, with the result that central banks’ balance sheets are now shrinking again (from just under $9 trillion in 2022 to $6.7 trillion at the beginning of 2025 in the case of the Fed).[58]

The price of this turnaround, which at least curbed double-digit inflation: the stagflation period of the 1970s has effectively returned at an even higher level of crisis – precisely because it is fueled not only by the unfolding of economic contradictions, but also by the ecological crisis of capital, the climate crisis and the increasing destruction of the ecological foundations of the process of civilization.[59] Monetary policy can hardly combat this inflation fueled by the capitalist climate crisis.[60][61]

Skyrocketing interest rates also put the US bond market – practically the foundation of the global financial house of cards – in a difficult position.[62] The decades-long trend of increasingly low interest rates, which enabled debt bubbles in the United States, was reversed starting in 2021, as already mentioned.[63] Bond interest rates have risen to more than four percent – and they have since remained at the relatively high level that makes debt service the largest budget item in the US.[64] The United States has thus already partially lost its strategic financing advantage resulting from dollar hegemony, and its interest rate level corresponds to that at the beginning of the 21st century – with the difference that debt is now much higher. Washington’s extraordinary privilege now only applies to a limited extent.

This major turnaround in monetary policy by the central banks, which they were forced into by inflation, effectively led to an end to the global deficit economy. According to figures from the International Monetary Fund, global debt in relation to economic output has been falling for three years. After peaking at 258% of global GDP in the pandemic year 2020, when gigantic economic stimulus measures had to be initiated, the debt burden had fallen to 237% in 2023.[65] This phasing out of the deficit economy is reflected in the corresponding economic slowdown in many economic areas – especially in the export-dependent FRG.[66][67]

And it is precisely the end of the global deficit economy – which is increasing faster than global economic output – that must lead to protectionist reflexes, as this increases the tensions and contradictions within the global deficit cycles to an intolerable level, simply making them politically untenable due to their social fallout. The economic slowdown in many regions and economic areas is intensifying the efforts of the capitalist functional elites to rely more heavily on exports. This is why the trade deficits of the United States are constantly reaching new highs in a crisis phase in which Washington’s interest burden is increasing and the deficit economy of the US can hardly be maintained due to the skyrocketing costs of servicing the debt.

The global constellation is therefore quite comparable to the euro crisis – until the European debt bubbles burst, Europe saw itself as one big happy family, only to fall over each other after the crisis broke out, with Germany’s Finance Minister Schäuble in particular standing out with his uninhibited austerity sadism towards southern Europe – which made him one of Germany’s most popular politicians.[68]

Trump & Vance as Blind Executors of the Crisis

Viewed from the narrow-minded nationalist perspective of the full and semi-fascists in the White House,[69] the protectionist U-turn – coupled with the brutal austerity program that Musk tried to implement in order to reduce the deficit – therefore seems to make perfect sense.[70]  Washington’s objectives are clear: deindustrialization is being halted and reversed, the tariffs are generating revenue, the social situation of its own electorate is being stabilized and the US military machine is ensuring that the transition from hegemony to empire, which in fact wants to demand tribute by means of tariffs, is not accompanied by a serious loss of power.[71]

In fact, Trump no longer wants to pay the rising costs of US hegemony. The hegemonic position of the United States in the post-war period was based on the Fordist boom, on the post-war prosperity that brought good economic development to all core countries.  From the 1980s onwards, when neoliberalism prevailed in response to the stagflation period of the 1970s, the hegemony of the US was based on global deficit cycles. China, Japan and German Europe accepted US hegemony because they were also able to derive economic benefits from it – specifically in the form of the trade surpluses they achieved vis-à-vis the US.[72] Against the backdrop of the global crisis of capital outlined above, Washington’s hegemonic costs must therefore also include the deindustrialization of the once leading industrial country.  

Only now can JD Vance, who criticized Trump for his protectionist tendencies as recently as 2016, be understood: The Vice President actually seems to believe that he can use protectionism to improve the situation of the economically disadvantaged sections of the population in which he experienced his early socialization. In response to the temporary court ban on a number of troop tariffs at the end of May 2025, the Vice President reiterated the nationalist line of argumentation that the White House was responding to a socio-economic emergency in large parts of the US with its tariff policy.[73] Even on cursory forays through the socio-economic crisis regions of the US – including Minnesota,[74] Iowa,[75] or North Dakota[76] – this description of the situation cannot simply be dismissed out of hand. In contrast to the southern euro states – where there are similar social wastelands – the US has the means to counter the internal crisis with external aggression.

The American vice president sometimes says quite openly that maintaining the US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency is no longer a political priority for Washington.[77] Vance wants a weak dollar in particular, as this should promote exports and the reindustrialization of the US. The export-focused economic models of China, Japan and Germany clearly serve as role models in such arguments. Germany’s past successes on non-European sales markets can be explained precisely by the fact that the euro is structurally undervalued in relation to Germany’s economic output.

The advantages of the greenback as the world’s reserve currency are melting away with rising bond interest rates and Washington’s exorbitantly high debt service, which has now outstripped military spending in the US budget. At the same time, trade deficits are reaching new highs after the pandemic – precisely because global borrowing beyond the US is slowing down.[78] Washington’s hegemonic position is slowly turning into a bad deal in the eyes of the dealmakers in the White House. To American nationalism – which is just as blind to the crisis as all other varieties of late bourgeois ideology – this worsening of the crisis must appear to be a betrayal of America by malicious foreign countries. The post-democratic right in the US provides little more than the ideology for the new phase of the crisis, in which the era of globalization gives way to deglobalization and protectionism.[79]

The White House responded to the legal setbacks experienced by Trump’s tariff regime – which was effectively enforced as emergency legislation – at the end of May 2025 by searching for new legal loopholes in sometimes decades-old laws in order to gain further options for erecting trade barriers.[80] In addition, Trump raised the US steel tariffs to 50%.[81] The clashes between free trade and protectionism are thus already forming a new front in the internal capitalist crisis management, similar to the eternal, dull shadow boxing between demand-oriented Keynesians and neoliberal austerity fetishists.

Trump & Vance are therefore actually hoping to use protectionism to attract more industrial production back to the US – in effect, they want a bigger slice of the cake again. This is the actual motive behind the new protectionism made in the USA. And this is precisely the manifestation of their miscalculation resulting from crisis ignorance – the global production value pie is not static, it is not a fixed quantity. It was the deficit economy of the last few neoliberal decades that managed to inflate the global industrial production value “pie” so much, to continue with the image. Protectionism will only accelerate the end of this deficit economy, which could lead to a crisis of unprecedented intensity. The white nationalists in the White House are, in fact, only tearing down what is already falling.

The socio-economic emergency in which he grew up and to which JD Vance refers is a consequence of the world crisis of capital, whose inner barrier is now becoming manifest, as the era of financial market-driven neoliberal crisis postponement is breaking down due to its contradictions. However, this socio-economic emergency resulting from the systemic crisis could only be overcome within the framework of an emancipatory transformation of the system.[82] The nationalist protectionism on which Washington relies, on the other hand, acts as a promoter of the crisis.

In fact, Trump is only executing the crisis dynamics. And the maneuvering of the White House with regard to trade policy, the permanent protectionist advances and retreats – they are due to the open contradictions of the current final phase of globalization outlined above: The extreme trade deficit, the far advanced deindustrialization, they effectively compel the nationalists in Washington to protectionism; at the same time, protectionist measures are out of the question due to the turmoil on the bond markets, where interest rates on government bonds shoot up after every round of Trump’s tariffs – which is, after all, also a consequence of the unwinding of US hegemony, as countries and economic areas such as China, Japan or the EU hardly see any economic advantages in accepting the role of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.[83]

Simply dumping the government bonds that have been acquired in exchange for trade surpluses in recent years – that is the economic nuclear option, the threat of mutual economic destruction, as is currently being openly expressed in the protectionist disputes. Japan, the largest creditor of the United States, has already threatened to sell Treasuries en masse.[84] This would plunge Washington into a full-blown financial crisis, the US would turn into a weaponized and nuclear-armed Greece – and at the same time the exporting countries that currently still export their surpluses to the US would also sink into severe economic crises, which would only be the prelude to further geopolitical, military conflicts. The protectionist, fascist 1930s would virtually return under the crisis conditions of the 21st century.

The era of financial market-driven globalization is inevitably coming to an end. Transformation is inevitable. What comes next is an open question and the subject of a transformative struggle.[85]

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[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillbilly_Elegy

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfhPAHTOkJE

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wiCNLVy7aKw&t=1s

[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XQUmVjjrZw

[5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5pU6M8yrpw

[6] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hoq6gNVrAo&t=1s

[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2i3aS6T6Nng

[8] https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm

[9] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-decline-of-u-s-manufacturing-by-sector/

[10] https://www.konicz.info/2006/11/30/keine-weiche-landung/

[11] https://www.konicz.info/2022/10/02/die-subjektlose-herrschaft-des-kapitals-2/

[12] https://www.nd-aktuell.de/artikel/1190139.welthandel-worum-es-in-trumps-zollkrieg-geht.html

[13] The distribution struggles fetishized as class struggle by old Marxism and left opportunism alike, on the other hand, represent only an internal capitalist surface phenomenon in which the variable capital (proletariat) fights for its share of the valorization process.

[14] https://exitinenglish.com/2025/02/26/a-country-for-old-men/

[15] Around 68% of US citizens stated in around 2024 that they would no longer be able to build up reserves and would have to scrape by from paycheck to paycheck. See: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/most-of-americans-are-living-paycheck-to-paycheck-heres-why.html

[16] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wie-donald-trump-den-handel-gefaehrdet-110414669.html

[17] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP

[18] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN

[19] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS

[20] https://nam.org/mfgdata/facts-about-manufacturing-expanded/

[21] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output

[22] https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2014/12/manufacturing-is-growing-even-when-manufacturing-jobs-are-not/

[23] https://www.konicz.info/2011/07/05/die-okologischen-grenzen-des-kapitals/

[24] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/10/donald-trump-ignites-insider-trading-accusations-after-global-tariffs-u-turn

[25]

[26] This does not mean that Sander’s social democratic policy prescriptions could overcome the systemic crisis, but they could possibly have established a new dynamic that would have enabled an emancipatory course of the inevitable systemic transformation.

[27] https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2024, https://www.fool.com/research/us-trade-balance/

[28] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/trade-balance-deficit

[29] https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

[30] https://www.fool.com/research/us-trade-balance/

[31] https://www.konicz.info/2023/11/20/neue-kapitalistische-naehe-2-0/

[32] https://www.konicz.info/2012/12/21/der-exportuberschussweltmeister/

[33] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/manufacturing-value-added-to-gdp

[34] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAPEFANA

[35] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urXXIQMzUoY

[36] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c204vl27n2qo

[37] https://www.konicz.info/2011/11/20/gerangel-auf-der-titanic/

[38] https://www.diepresse.com/5203733/deutsche-handelsueberschuesse-muessen-uns-nicht-entschuldigen

[39] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eu-reaktion-auf-trumps-zoelle-am-kuerzeren-hebel-110398208.html

[40] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/09/13/global-debt-is-returning-to-its-rising-trend

[41] https://www.konicz.info/2006/11/30/keine-weiche-landung/

[42] https://lowerclassmag.com/2021/04/13/oekonomie-im-zuckerrausch-weltfinanzsystem-in-einer-gigantischen-liquiditaetsblase/

[43]https://exitinenglish.com/2024/04/29/crisis-beyond-the-bubble/, https://exitinenglish.com/2024/02/29/schizophrenic-monetary-policy/

[44] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/trade-balance-deficit, https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2024

[45] https://www.konicz.info/2010/09/18/zerbricht-chimerica/

[46] https://exitinenglish.com/2022/08/12/a-new-quality-of-crisis/

[47] https://www.konicz.info/2015/10/05/aufstieg-und-zerfall-des-deutschen-europa-2/

[48] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA/

[49] https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

[50] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/

[51] https://www.konicz.info/2020/10/27/vergleich-der-krisen-2020-vs-2008/

[52] https://www.konicz.info/2007/03/05/vor-dem-tsunami/

[53] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/05/25/keynesianism-in-crisis/

[54] https://www.konicz.info/2022/12/09/geldpolitik-vor-dem-bankrott/

[55] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

[56] https://lowerclassmag.com/2021/01/30/hedge-fonds-gamestop-und-reddit-kleinanleger-die-grosse-blackrock-bonanza/

[57] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds

[58] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds

[59] https://www.konicz.info/2021/11/16/zurueck-zur-stagflation/

[60] https://www.konicz.info/2022/01/14/die-klimakrise-und-die-aeusseren-grenzen-des-kapitals/

[61] https://www.konicz.info/2021/08/08/dreierlei-inflation/

[62] https://exitinenglish.com/2022/08/12/mountains-of-debt-on-the-move/

[63] https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

[64] https://budget.house.gov/press-release/interest-costs-surpass-national-defense-and-medicare-spending

[65] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/12/02/persistent-fall-in-private-borrowing-brings-global-debt-down

[66] https://exitinenglish.com/2022/08/12/no-more-trade-surplus/

[67] https://jungle.world/artikel/2025/14/autoland-ist-abgebrannt

[68] https://www.buecher.de/artikel/buch/aufstieg-und-zerfall-des-deutschen-europa/42973311/

[69] https://www.konicz.info/2017/08/07/politische-oekonomie-des-krisennationalismus/

[70] https://exitinenglish.com/2025/02/26/a-country-for-old-men/

[71] https://medium.com/@ascentreact/everything-must-burn-862b983914a6

[72] https://unrast-verlag.de/produkt/aufstieg-und-zerfall-des-deutschen-europa/

[73] https://conservativejournalreview.com/vice-president-jd-vance-says-america-facing-emergency-requiring-trump-tariffs/

[74] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdl1S_Da_hU

[75] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L883pwCPOwE

[76] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59hzueQkmok

[77] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-jd-vance-wants-a-weak-dollar-is-that-a-good-idea.html

[78] https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2024

[79] https://www.konicz.info/2017/08/09/zur-wiederkehr-der-nationalistischen-ideologie/

[80] https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/two-laws-that-trump-could-use-to-re-impose-his-tariffs-and-why-he-might-do-them-both/ar-AA1FIX6r

[81] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpKiZOS6ADU

[82] https://www.untergrund-blättle.ch/politik/theorie/emanzipation-in-der-krise-7306.html

[83] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/trumps-kurswechsel-bei-zoellen-was-war-der-knackpunkt-110410883.html

[84] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/japan-threatens-to-offload-its-1-trillion-us-treasury-holdings-if-trump-trade-talks-don-t-go-well/ar-AA1E2Wkn

[85] https://arranca.org/ausgaben/nichts-zu-verlieren/den-transformationskampf-aufnehmen

Originally published on konicz.info on 06/01/2025

Trump at the Inner Barrier of Capital

The reindustrialization of the USA, which Trump wants to force through his protectionism, is being undermined by automation trends in industry.

Tomasz Konicz

What does Donald Trump want? Since the so-called “Liberation Day” at the beginning of April, when the right-wing populist announced the introduction of comprehensive tariffs for almost the entire late capitalist world, Washington’s specific regulations, tariff rates and exemptions have been changing almost on a weekly basis. The economic uncertainty that Trump’s protectionism brings with it is considered by economists to be an important factor that could contribute to an economic slowdown or even recession in the US. Companies and corporations cannot calculate reliably, the flow of trade between the US and China has largely come to a standstill, and supply bottlenecks in the US can hardly be avoided despite the latest postponement in the trans-Pacific trade war.

First and foremost, it is around seven million industrial jobs that Donald Trump wants back. For more than 40 years, employment in the industrial sector in the United States has been declining, from just under 20 million industrial workers in 1978 to just under 13 million in 2023.[1] Between 2002 and 2022, the number of industrial companies in the United States fell by 45,000, which corresponds to a decline of around 14% within two decades.[2] This deindustrialization of the US has led to the very social disruption that has once again propelled Trump into office – and the White House must confront this misery, precisely because the increasingly authoritarian Trump administration can hardly afford to be voted out of office without ending up in prison due to multiple obvious violations of the law. The consolidation of an authoritarian regime in the United States can only be achieved by socially immobilizing broad sections of the population, similar to what Putin was able to do in Russia.

And, from a narrow-minded national perspective, the connections are clear: the deindustrialization of the US goes hand in hand with the creation of massive trade deficits with China and German Europe in the age of globalization. Last year, the United States recorded a new record deficit of $1.21 trillion,[3] which is far above the highs during the US housing bubble in 2006 (786 billion) and the post-Covid era in 2022 (971 billion).[4] Last year, the US recorded a deficit of $295 billion with the People’s Republic of China alone,[5] while the figure for the EU was $235 billion, of which Germany accounted for $84 billion.[6] Trade surpluses are used to export deindustrialization and debt, which also formed the core of the German beggar-thy-neighbor economic model at the height of globalization. This correlation is also manifested in the share of industrial production in total GDP,[7] which in 2023 was around 26% in China, 18.5% in the FRG and only around 10% in the US (in the 1970s it was still just under 25%).[8]

So is this a big scam, as the Trump administration is postulating in order to legitimize its protectionism? The relationship between job losses in the industrial sector and the actual output of US industry makes it clear that it was primarily competition-mediated productivity increases that led to the deindustrialization of the US. Between 1980 and 2000, during the same period in which the industrial workforce in the United States fell from just under 19 million to 17 million,[9] US industrial output roughly doubled (percentage figures from the Fed, in inflation-adjusted 2017 prices).[10]

Rising industrial production with declining employment in the industrial sector is an expression of the rationalization push in commodity production in the course of the IT revolution from the 1980s onwards; it is the empirically verifiable consequence of the inner barrier of capital – the competition-mediated tendency of the capitalist valorization process to get rid of its own substance, the value-forming labor in commodity production. Even in the 21st century, when the US industrial workforce shrank massively (from 17 million to just under 13 million), the output of this shrinking industrial workforce stagnated without a corresponding decline (the crisis-related slumps in industrial output in 2009 and 2020 were quickly reversed).[11]

What’s more, according to the National Association of Manufacturers,[12] value added in the United States amounted to around $2.93 trillion in 2024 (in 2010 it was just under $1.8 trillion, in 1997 only $1.38 trillion),[13] with the United States paradoxically growing primarily in foreign trade. Manufacturing exports have more than doubled in the last two decades, from $622.3 billion in 2002 to $1.63 trillion in 2024. What is Trump and his entourage upset about? Well, in the same period – the heyday of globalization – the volume of world trade has more than tripled: from $4.9 trillion in 2000, to $9.8 trillion in 2010, to $15.7 trillion in 2023. The US’ share of world trade has thus fallen – to 7.9% in 2023.

The opposing trends in capitalist commodity production – which lacks new labor-intensive fields of valorization – were also noticed and addressed by US monetary policy. As early as 2014, the US Federal Reserve noted that industrial production in the United States was continuing to grow (with the exception of short-term slumps caused by the crisis), while employment was not, meaning that “industrial growth is not synonymous with growth in industrial jobs.”[14] The Fed offered “productivity growth” and a shift in sectoral focus towards “computers and electronics” as explanations.  

Trump’s protectionist policy thus appears to be failing due to the increasingly clear inner barrier of capital, the relentless melting away of the mass of spent labor in commodity production as a result of competition-mediated rationalization (the idea that capitalism could be reproduced as a financial market-driven service society was already disgraced in 2008). This is particularly evident in the development in China, where Trump’s protectionism believes it has recovered its lost industrial jobs. Even in the state capitalist workshop of the world, which owes its economic rise to millions of mercilessly exploited cheap workers, automation tendencies are spreading ever faster.

China is now the global leader in the installation of industrial robots. By 2023, the People’s Republic had already overtaken Japan and Germany in the automation of goods production: 470 industrial robots per 10,000 wage earners were in use in China, compared to 419 in Germany and 429 in Japan.[15] The dynamics of this automation push are dizzying: in 2023, more than twice as many robots were put into operation in the People’s Republic than in the next five industrialized countries combined. The world’s automating workshop accounted for more than 50% of global demand for robots in 2023.[16] Meanwhile, forecasts predict that the People’s Republic will become the center of robotics, with more than half of humanoid robot production predicted to be based there this year.[17]

And it is precisely Trump’s protectionism that is tempting capital to further boost automation in reshoring in the United States. According to the US automation service provider Formic, which specializes in the leasing of industrial robots, the general uncertainty caused by the trade disputes led to a 17% increase in the use of robots at the beginning of 2025. The new settlements of industrial companies, which Trump’s capricious customs regime is intended to provoke, would also be built at the globally applicable productivity level, which would entail a high degree of automation. Chinese robotics manufacturers in particular are likely to sense new market opportunities here. Trump’s crazy idea that millions of US wage earners would manufacture smartphones by hand is becoming obsolete, even in China, due to rapidly advancing automation.

Ultimately, however, Trump’s reshoring fantasies are milquetoast calculations that overlook the connection between declining industrial production and the inflated global financial markets. Hyper-productive global industrial production – especially in China – was dependent on a global deficit economy with the US at the center of deficit cycles in which global debt has risen faster than global economic output since the 1980s. And it is precisely this deficit economy, realized by means of increasing financial bubbles, that has been extinguished since the major inflationary surge of 2020, after the central banks had to curb their expansive monetary policy. According to the IMF, global debt fell between 2021 and 2023, contributing to the global economic slowdown, the widening of the US deficit and the increasing destabilization of the globalized world economy through deficit cycles.[18]

The erratic, contradictory behavior of the White House mentioned at the beginning is above all an expression of this contradiction: the US trade deficit is exploding because its trading partners are having to rely more heavily on exports due to the economic slowdown, while Trump’s protectionist measures are jeopardizing the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency and causing turmoil on the US bond markets. Trump expected turbulence with his protectionist turnaround, which is why he wanted to initiate it as soon as he took office – but it was the rapid rise in interest rates on US government bonds that forced him to reverse course. In the meantime, US trading partners such as Japan are threatening to sell US government bonds during negotiations.[19] It is effectively the nuclear option in the trade war, which also highlights the absurd state of late capitalist commodity production, whose production surpluses are exported to the US, which can borrow in the world’s reserve currency as the measure of value of all commodities.


[1] https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-9/forty-years-of-falling-manufacturing-employment.htm

[2] https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-decline-of-u-s-manufacturing-by-sector/

[3] https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annual-2024

[4] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/trade-balance-deficit

[5] https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

[6] https://www.fool.com/research/us-trade-balance/

[7] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/manufacturing-value-added-to-gdp

[8] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAPEFANA

[9] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP

[10] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN

[11] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS

[12] https://nam.org/mfgdata/facts-about-manufacturing-expanded/

[13] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output

[14] https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2014/12/manufacturing-is-growing-even-when-manufacturing-jobs-are-not/

[15] https://archive.ph/bL8tt#selection-1101.15-1101.47

[16] https://ifr.org/downloads/press2018/2024-SEP-24_IFR_press_release_World_Robotics_2024_-_China.pdf

[17] https://www.asiamanufacturingreview.com/news/china-to-manufacture-half-of-world-s-humanoid-robots-by-2025-nwid-1613.html

[18] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/12/02/persistent-fall-in-private-borrowing-brings-global-debt-down

[19] https://thediplomat.com/2025/05/how-japans-1-1-trillion-in-us-treasuries-became-a-strategic-lever-in-the-new-tariff-war/

Originally published on konicz.info on 05/26/2025

Russia Is in No Hurry

The chances that the Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul will lead to a quick or even fair peace are slim.

Tomasz Konicz

The fact that peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow were able to take place in Istanbul highlights just how bad the military situation in Ukraine is. On May 10, four European leaders, who had traveled to the Ukrainian capital in a gesture of solidarity, joined their counterpart Zelensky in calling for a 30-day ceasefire as a precondition for any talks. This unconditional, comprehensive ceasefire would give “diplomacy a chance,” Zelensky demanded in the presence of British Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, Polish Prime Minister Tusk, and German Vice Chancellor Merz.

The Kremlin remained unmoved by the EU’s threat of sanctions linked the ceasefire that are aimed at taking stronger action against Russia’s shadow fleet – there will be no ceasefire because it is not in the Kremlin’s interest. The Russian-Ukrainian talks, on the other hand, began under fire, as this strengthens Russia’s negotiating position. In addition, as usual, the Europeans were excluded from these negotiations, which were conducted with the participation of the U.S. administration. By excluding the Europeans, Putin obviously wants to further divide the West. Finally, the Kremlin did not agree to Zelensky’s demands to hold direct talks with Putin.

Realities of the War of Attrition

Russia was thus able to dictate almost all of the preconditions for the negotiations in Istanbul. Ukraine, on the other hand, has little choice but to negotiate, as the war of attrition in the east will inevitably be won by Russian imperialism, which has greater resources (material, technology, manpower). Ukraine’s last major offensive, the advance into the Russian region of Kursk, ended in strategic failure. Kiev’s calculation was to dig in and hold the Russian border region in order to have a bargaining chip in any negotiations – now Russia occupies parts of the Ukrainian border region in the Sumy Oblast. Both sides suffered heavy losses in the fighting in Kursk, which also involved North Korean units. However, the Kremlin is better placed than Kiev to compensate for this through successful recruitment campaigns.

Western think tanks sympathetic to Ukraine, after years of whitewashing, are now being forced to acknowledge the realities of the war of attrition on the front lines. In a recent assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assumes that Russia will not only be able to mobilize enough new forces to compensate for losses on the front, but also to “increase the size of army groups in Ukraine.” The Russian army leadership thus has more manpower at its disposal, even though, according to the ISW, Russia has recently suffered “significant losses with limited gains.” The growing imbalance could serve to “put pressure” on Ukraine in negotiations. In addition, Moscow appears to be in a position to build up a considerable “strategic reserve” through successful recruitment, according to the ISW.

The Atlantic Council is already warning of a major Russian summer offensive that threatens to become “the deadliest of the war so far.” Here, too, the admission of impending defeat can be read between the lines. Although the Russian army continues to suffer losses in “costly frontal attacks,” this tactic is constantly evolving, with these attacks being supported by “drone strikes, glide bombs, and artillery,” which is making Ukraine’s defensive measures more difficult. Russia currently holds the initiative on the front and is “advancing on several points” (Sumy, Kharkiv), with the Russian army leadership planning a major offensive in the Donbas – around Pokrovsk – in the coming months, according to the Atlantic Council. Ukrainian offensive plans have therefore long been a waste of time. The only question now is whether the front can be held in the face of Russian attacks and possible offensives. The summer threatens to become a “test of endurance” full of “brutal fighting” for “war-weary Ukraine” – especially in view of dwindling American military aid.

Direct military intervention by the Europeans against the nuclear power Russia – which was at times publicly debated in the EU – is now considered virtually impossible, despite all public expressions of solidarity. In mid-May, Macron stated that despite all its support, France did not intend to start “World War III” over Ukraine. Shortly before that, Polish government officials denied statements by U.S. envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, that Warsaw was prepared to deploy army units to Ukraine. Within Germany’s governing coalition, there is controversy over whether Kiev should be supplied with the advanced Taurus cruise missiles at all. While Deputy Chancellor Merz wants to maintain “strategic ambiguity” on this issue, SPD parliamentary group leader Matthias Miersch has explicitly spoken out against the delivery.

A Caricatured Imperialist Deal

Given this military and geopolitical constellation, which is favorable to Russia, the Kremlin can enter negotiations from a position of strength to push through its core demands, which ultimately aim to legalize its imperialist aggression and claim even more Ukrainian territory than is currently held by Russian troops. The logic behind such a deal is clear: to achieve inevitable military conquest through negotiation. Putin’s minimum territorial demands are likely to include the legalization of the annexation of the entire regions of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russia’s marginal gains in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions are likely to be used as bargaining chips.

Added to this are the restrictions on Ukrainian sovereignty, which the Kremlin is selling under the label of “denazification.” On the one hand, this amounts to preventing Ukraine from becoming part of the Western sphere of influence, which could be achieved through neutrality commitments and arms restrictions for the Ukrainian army, as well as a “regime change” in which new elections would be scheduled in Ukraine. Russia does not want to occupy the entire country, but rather to bring it back into its imperial orbit. In the medium term, the Kremlin hopes to maneuver the “remaining Ukraine” into a state of sham sovereignty, similar to that currently enjoyed by Belarus. Formally independent, the former Soviet republic is in fact already part of the Russian Federation, both economically and militarily.

Russia therefore has no need to rush the negotiations, and one must wonder whether or not they are being held purely for propaganda reasons. Kiev, on the other hand, has few cards left to play in this imperialist poker game, which is why Zelensky had to agree to send his delegation to Istanbul on Putin’s terms—the longer he waits, the worse his position will become. In addition, tensions are rising on Ukraine’s western border, where the Ukrainian secret service has arrested two Hungarian citizens who are alleged to have been spying for the Orbán government in Budapest – they are said to have been gathering information on military installations, the mood among the population, and the defense capabilities of the Transcarpathian region, which is inhabited by a Hungarian minority. Since then, relations between Hungary and Ukraine have been frozen, with both countries expelling diplomats from the other side. The authoritarian head of government Orbán, from whose circle there are repeated calls for the annexation of Transcarpathia, is considered close to Russia.

Kiev’s only chance to retain some leverage seems to be to effectively capitulate to Trump’s extractivism: Kiev has had to sign a humiliating resource agreement with the U.S. in order not to lose its support completely. Kiev’s calculation: this caricature of an imperialist deal, signed at the beginning of May, would only make sense if Ukraine’s resource-rich eastern territories remained under Ukrainian – well – sovereignty. Kiev is hoping that Washington will back up its interest in extracting raw materials with military force. This would effectively tear Ukraine apart between East and West.

At least the Financial Times claims to have noticed a “quiet shift” in favor of Ukraine within the bluntly imperialist U.S. administration as early as mid-May. Speaking at a public meeting in Washington, Vice President JD Vance said that his administration was aware of a number of Russian demands that would make it possible to end the war: “We think they are asking for too much,” Vance said. At the same time, however, the vice president pointed out that despite “widespread criticism” of Putin, it was necessary to understand the Kremlin’s point of view in order to understand the “motivation of the other side.” Vance believed that Russia remained “interested in a solution.”

What might this solution look like? The Kremlin also has the upper hand in Ukraine’s resource poker game: Back in late February, when Kiev was still blocking the sale of its natural resources, Putin offered his American counterpart to jointly exploit the resources of eastern Ukraine and sell them to the U.S. A large part of the natural resources are already under Russian control anyway.

Tomasz Konicz is an author and journalist. His latest book is Climate Killer Capital: How an Economic System is Destroying our Livelihoods. More articles and donation options (Patreon) can be found at konicz.info.

Originally published in analyse & kritik on 05/16/2025.

Protectionist Revenants

The lessons that the bourgeoisie learned from the great systemic crisis of the 1930s have long been forgotten in Trump’s Washington.

Tomasz Konicz

Want some more? When it comes to tariffs and trade barriers, the U.S. president is known to be extravagant. In response to the EU’s announcement of retaliatory measures for the U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel, which include alcoholic beverages, Donald Trump responded by threatening astronomical punitive tariffs of 200% on European wine and sparkling wine. So far, this escalation strategy has worked: when Canada’s Ontario province announced a 25% tax on electricity exports to the United States as part of the North American trade war, Trump immediately threatened to double U.S. tariffs on all Canadian metal imports to 50% – Ontario then withdrew its export tax.

The U.S. actually has a strategic advantage in these trade wars because of its huge trade deficit ($918.4 billion in 2024). This is likely to tend to decrease in the course of the trade wars, while most of America’s trading partners are likely to see shrinking exports. Trump is speculating that he can ride out the short-term turbulence that the major protectionist turnaround will bring in order to achieve the hoped-for long-term return of a re-industrialization of the U.S. before the next election. In fact, the U.S. wants to reindustrialize itself at the expense of those countries and economic areas for whose export industries the U.S. trade deficits have thus far served as a credit-financed economic stimulus program.

In fact, the world economy, which is increasingly running on credit, also functioned like this in the neoliberal era: the U.S. resembled a black hole of the global economy, absorbing surplus industrial production and being able to borrow in the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, on the rapidly expanding financial markets. In the context of ever-growing deficit cycles, gigantic export surpluses flowed into the U.S. as the center of capitalism’s neoliberal financialization, while a flow of debt instruments and bonds began in the opposite direction, making China, for example, the largest foreign creditor of the U.S. for many years (currently it is Japan). The global total debt, which in the neoliberal era has increased faster than global economic output (from around 110% at the beginning of the 1970s to more than 250% in 2020), was the lubricant of globalization precisely through these deficit cycles.

This neoliberal construction of towers of debt, which gave rise to the illusion of financial-market-driven growth in the United States, spawned a veritable global financial bubble economy that became unstable with the bursting of the real estate bubble in 2008 and unsustainable with the inflationary surge that began in 2020. Trump is thus a product of the crisis, whose protectionism is supposed to provide an answer to the processes of social disintegration that accompanied deindustrialization and the collapse of the financial bubble economy. And it is no coincidence that the whole thing resembles the protectionism of the 1930s, when the world system was hit by the greatest crisis to date.

The internal barrier of capital, which gets rid of its own substance, wage labor, through market-mediated rationalization, is now openly apparent: since new economic sectors that would valorize mass wage labor are nowhere to be found, each economic area must try to protect its remaining industrial capacities, as everyone is trying to support their industries through exports. Trump wants a qualitative break with the credit-fueled crisis delay methods of the neoliberal era – and the contradiction is almost tangible, for example in Trump’s eternal zigzag. The system can only run on credit – and at the same time the consequences of this global deficit boom are no longer socially, economically and, above all, politically sustainable.

But what does Trump want? Ultimately, the White House is currently destroying the system of American hegemony established in the post-war period, since the U.S. can no longer or no longer wants to bear the costs of this hegemony. Instead, Trump is setting about building a U.S. empire that no longer relies on a global network of institutions and rules in the exercise of power, but will presumably assert itself through direct and ultimately military force. And that is not a sign of strength, but of weakness. Trump’s narrow-minded crisis-imperialist calculation, which perceives the deindustrialization of the U.S. as a result of fraud by foreign competitors, will be exposed as such when these competitors no longer see any reason to accept the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The systemic cause of the geopolitical upheavals that are now shaking what is left of the “West” is the openly apparent internal limit of capital.

Originally published on konicz.info on 03/28/25

Into the Crisis One Tariff at a Time

With its protectionist tariff policy, the new U.S. government is ushering in the end of the age of neoliberal globalization.

Tomasz Konicz

Protectionism is likely to become the new normal. The first foreign policy reflex of the new U.S. administration was to instigate trade wars. At the beginning of February, just a few days after taking office, President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico.

At 25%, the import duties on goods from Mexico and Canada were much higher than for China, whose goods were subject to additional import duties of just 10%. The U.S. is by far the most important trading partner for all three countries, with each of them recording trade surpluses.

However, while the tariffs against China actually came into force, Trump suspended the implementation of protectionist measures against neighboring countries to the north and south of the U.S. for 30 days on February 3rd. At this point, the U.S. government entered into negotiations with Mexico and Canada, during which the threat of punitive tariffs remains in place. In fact, Trump has already been able to secure significant concessions: both Canada and Mexico agreed to tighten controls on their borders with the U.S. Mexico wants to mobilize around 10,000 troops to secure the border so as not to jeopardize the economic position of its northern border region as an extension of the U.S. workbench.

In fact, Trump’s alleged economic protectionism is a geopolitical instrument of power that can be used to extort concessions. In the case of Mexico, which is particularly susceptible to economic pressure from the U.S. because of its increased economic dependency on them as a result of the U.S. nearshoring strategy, the aim is for better defense against migration movements. Canada, on the other hand, is apparently actually being forced to integrate more closely into the U.S. economy – the foreseeable struggle for the resources in and trade routes through the rapidly thawing Arctic make Trump’s bizarre annexation demands regarding Canada and Greenland at least understandable.

China immediately announced retaliatory measures: Tariff increases now introduced there include 15% on energy sources and 10% on agricultural machinery, spare parts for trucks and similar products from the U.S. However, the Chinese government has the short end of the stick in such trade wars. In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit amounted to the gigantic sum of $918.4 billion, of which China alone accounted for $295.4 billion. Even if both sides initially suffer economic disadvantages in a trade war, especially in the current stagflative crisis phase, for example in the form of higher inflation, an escalation would always hit the economy with the export surpluses harder than the deficit country, which can at least hope to substitute imports burdened by tariffs through increased domestic production.

The European Union is in a similar situation, having aligned itself with the export-focused German economic model since the euro crisis and achieving a trade surplus of 235.5 billion euros with the U.S. in 2024. Around 20 percent of all EU exports go to the U.S., its most important sales market. The special tariffs of 25 percent on steel and aluminum, which Trump issued in mid-February, were immediately described by the EU as illegal. It saw “no justification for imposing tariffs on its exports,” according to the EU Commission, which threatened countermeasures to “protect the interests of European companies, workers and consumers from unjustified measures.”

Only Trump’s First Salvo in the Transatlantic Trade War

This was effectively only Trump’s first salvo in the coming transatlantic trade war, as only a few manufacturers in the EU are substantially affected by this. The EU’s trade surplus is primarily generated with cars made in Germany, machinery and pharmaceutical products – on February 18th, Trump consequently threatened punitive tariffs of 25% on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. Added to this is the EU’s agricultural sector, which is incurring the wrath of the U.S. government due to some EU trade restrictions – for example against the infamous chlorinated chicken. The EU agricultural sector knows exactly what to expect. At the turn of the year, agricultural exports from the EU to the U.S. climbed to their highest level in 15 years. “Mountains of butter, pyramids of cheese and lakes of milk” are currently being laid out for export in anticipation of the coming trade barriers, reported the Austrian newspaper Der Standard.

Trump has already indicated to media representatives that his government is working on a comprehensive protectionist offensive that is likely to hit the EU particularly hard. In principle, the upcoming U.S. tariffs are to be imposed on individual EU countries and not on the entire economic area in order to promote divisive tendencies in the EU, make a joint EU counter-strategy more difficult and reward countries governed by Trump’s ideological allies, such as Hungary, with exemptions. The U.S. Department of Commerce is currently drawing up a list of countries that use “unfair trade practices” in order to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on them.

It is almost certain that Germany’s beleaguered car manufacturers will face new burdens, as the EU car import tariffs of 10% are far higher than those in the U.S. (2.5%). The spreading panic was already evident in the public announcement by VW CEO Oliver Blume that he intends to hold direct talks with the U.S. government. The German mechanical engineering industry is also likely to face tariff increases. If the trade conflict with the U.S. escalates, forecasts predict an additional economic slump of up to 1.5% of gross domestic product for Germany in particular.

What Retaliatory Measures Remain for the EU?

Bourbon, jeans, Harley-Davidsons, peanuts – what retaliatory measures are left for the EU? Brussels and Berlin are certainly aware that the EU is at a disadvantage in trade disputes due to its export surplus. So far, leaders have signaled a compromise proposal and a counter-threat to the U.S. government. The EU appears to be prepared to buy larger quantities of liquid gas from the U.S. and to reduce tariffs on U.S. vehicles in order to reduce the U.S. deficit.

Building on the protectionist experience gained during Trump’s first presidency, the EU had already issued a regulation at the end of 2023 that allows for swift retaliatory measures should “economic coercion” be used against the currency area. This time, it is not just about the import of goods, but also services. This could cause difficulties for U.S. IT giants such as Alphabet, Meta and Amazon in particular, who have very quickly come to terms with Trump’s authoritarian efforts.

However, in terms of economic policy, one can hardly speak of an about-face turn in U.S. policy. It is more a further intensification of the previous restrictive trade tendencies, as Joe Biden’s administration also continued the protectionist measures from Trump’s first term in office in a modified form – especially in the form of the economic stimulus programs that benefited domestic producers. And it is precisely in the increasing protectionism that the crisis process becomes evident. The fight for trade surpluses is a concrete expression of the inner barrier of capital choking on its productivity, which has so far been overcome within the framework of neoliberal deficit economies, especially in the U.S.

Trump now appears to be ushering in the final break with the era of neoliberal globalization, which gave rise to gigantic deficit cycles fueled by speculative bubbles. The U.S., with the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, forms the center of this financial bubble economy, in which U.S. trade deficits act as a global economic stimulus program – until the accompanying deindustrialization led to widespread social disruption and political instability in the U.S., which in turn elevated right-wing populist forces to the White House. In their second attempt, they now seem more determined than ever not only to drive forward fascization in domestic policy, but also to stage a revival of the devastating protectionism of the 1930s, which exacerbated the crisis at the time.

Originally published in jungle world on 02/27/2025

The AI Revolution Devours its Children

The Chinese AI company Deepseek is shaking up the business model of the emerging industry.

Tomasz Konicz

The shockwaves that the Chinese AI model DeepSeek sent through the American high-tech industry also produced ironic, downright comical moments. ChatGPT developer OpenAI, which is backed by Microsoft, accused the Chinese startup of data theft and espionage. The business model of the American AI pioneer was built on “stealing data from the entire internet” and now they are “crying because DeepSeek may have trained on the outputs from ChatGPT,” as tech critic Ed Zitron said to PC Gamer.[1] The team led by AI guru Sam Altman is now being given a taste of their own medicine, Zitron ranted. OpenAI had designed a “plagiarism machine” and was now complaining that its plagiarisms were being used to generate new plagiarism machines.

Knowledge distillation is what the industry calls this process, in which a lot of money and resources can be saved by using the output of a large language model specifically to train a smaller, cheaper model. It is no coincidence that OpenAI is complaining loudly about the low-cost Chinese competition, which allegedly completed its model for just under six million dollars – ironically, the pioneer of the AI industry, which likes to aggressively propagate its potential to bring about total economic rationalization, simply seems to be losing its business model. The proprietary, closed AI systems were actually intended – due to their gigantic training costs –to be monopolized and sold by the tech giants of Silicon Valley, since machine learning has so far been able to devour billions of dollars. OpenAI would, however, become obsolete in its current form once the innovations of the Chinese language model, which is largely open source, are generalized.

DeepSeek triggered a disruptive shock in which proprietary software is beaten by the open source principle, which enables far faster, global collaboration and innovation (only the latecomer Meta has also pursued an open source approach with its large language model Llama –precisely because Facebook & Co. are not dependent on revenue from the AI business).[2] The dreamed-of software profits of the AI industry giants would thus be largely shattered, because soon every medium-sized company will be delighting its customers with similarly annoying AI tools, as Microsoft has done with its already much-hated Copilot – essentially the Clippy[3] of the AI age – at a cost of billions of dollars.[4]

An analogy from the market for operating systems can illustrate the disruption that is now unfolding: The AI industry wanted to pursue a model like the one Microsoft has practiced with its Windows operating system since the 1990s, in which the software itself is the monopolized product. With DeepSeek, the software becomes free and/or cheaper, while now the services and customizations, the “service” so to speak, must be monetized – similar to what Red Hat does with its Enterprise Linux. This is a realistic business principle, but this potential volume of the AI market is much smaller, even before its widespread realization.

However, the hardware manufacturers whose computing capacities made the AI boom possible also saw their share prices plummet after the DeepSeek shock. The graphics card manufacturer Nvidia not only discovered a goldmine with its computing cards adapted for AI processes, but also largely monopolized it to increase its share price almost tenfold within two years. After the release of DeepSeek, however, its share price slumped by 20 percent. The entire AI boom, which is effectively only keeping the U.S. financial market in a speculative boom (the EU is already largely decoupled), is in danger of running out of steam. What if the hopes for a new accumulation regime, new markets and job-generating economic sectors burst as abruptly as they did during the deflation of the dot-com bubble at the turn of the millennium? One of the most important pillars of the U.S. economy, which is actually only able to maintain its exceptional position thanks to the U.S. dollar, has been clearly cracked by a stock exchange massacre of around one trillion dollars in February.[5]

DeepSeek is not only undermining the U.S. financial market boom, the AI tool also poses a geopolitical and military challenge to Washington’s dominance, which can now only be maintained thanks to the power of the U.S. military machine. This is why the White House – aside from Trump’s empty phrases about the innovation-promoting effect of competition – immediately moved to minimize the app’s reach and simply ban its use in government agencies.

The timing of the publication of DeepSeek was probably also intended to humiliate the terawatt gigantomania of Trump and his techno-oligarchs, who a few days earlier announced Stargate, a 500 billion dollar AI investment program that now looks simply ridiculous.[6] The signal that Chinese state capitalism is sending out is clear: Chinese efficiency beats the American brute force approach. China has also demonstrated the ineffectiveness of American sanctions on high-tech products, which were intended to prevent the development of competitive Chinese AI against the backdrop of the hegemonic struggle between Washington and Beijing – precisely because of the frightening potential of military applications of AI systems.

On the contrary, DeepSeek claims to have made a virtue out of necessity, with several innovations in the training phases of AI leading to the use of Nvidia chips being limited to older 2048 H800 models (DeepSeek has not confirmed the alleged knowledge distillation that scandalizes OpenAI).[7] In the meantime, however, a study by the IT think tank SemiAnalysis has cast massive doubt on precisely these cost advantages of the Chinese competition.[8] According to the study, the Chinese hedge fund High-Flyer, which financed DeepSeek, has computing farms of around 60,000 Nvidia cards, and the expenses for the highly qualified personnel and the development of the new training methods are not included in the DeepSeek creators’ cost calculation. So the true expenses of the hedge fund High-Flyer in the “People’s Republic” are said to amount to one billion dollars.

Even if large parts of this western cost counter-calculation were to correspond to reality, its implicit logic is wrong. DeepSeek is open source, its development costs play no role in its further use, the process innovations that went into its development are not kept under wraps, they have become common property – and they inevitably lower the price of the AI-based services that America’s IT industry wanted to monopolize. The AI pie is melting away. And these innovations are real, they are not just a cheap copy, as the MIT Technology Review acknowledged – U.S. competitors are now working hard to copy these innovations, which are being promoted by Washington’s sanctions.[9] New compression methods such as multi-head latent attention have reduced memory consumption and minimized bottlenecks resulting from inadequate memory bandwidth.[10]

Another key innovative step that DeepSeek has taken is the extensive automation of the multi-stage training phase of the automation machines. According to the Financial Times (FT), DeepSeek’s “major innovation” is to minimize the use of human labor in the correct “labeling” of data.[11]  This technique, which is used in the final training phase and is known within the industry as “reinforcement learning from human feedback” (RLHF), is expensive and time-consuming, according to the FT, as it requires a “small army of human data labelers.”[12] The day laborers of the AI age, most of whom are paid less than two dollars an hour and recruited in peripheral regions such as Latin America or Africa, spend their working day repeatedly tagging digital data with appropriate labels for the AI – not unlike the captchas of traffic lights, bicycles or dogs that used to be requested when passwords were entered.

And these slum jobs, which number in the hundreds of thousands and whose exploitation in the context of the RLHF is bringing the high-tech industry of the 21st century back to life in the 18th century, will soon become obsolete. According to the FT, DeepSeek was able to automate reinforcement learning through digital reward mechanisms that are activated when the AI system gives the right answers. As soon as this process is repeated often enough, the large language model begins to “spontaneously solve problems without human supervision” once a tipping point is passed. An “aha moment” occurred when DeepSeek began to evaluate questions again and adapt its computing time to the different questions, according to the financial journal, echoing reports by Chinese AI researchers. To replicate this, it no longer needs AI day laborers, but only “its very strong, pre-trained model” and a very good infrastructure to carry out “this reinforcement learning process at a large scale.”

AI is also devouring its miserable children. However, the wage earners on the periphery of the late capitalist world system, who are now at risk of losing even their precarious slum jobs, will soon be followed into obsolescence by millions of employees in the core. Although AI will radically transform the societies of the core in a similar way to the internet and the first phase of digitalization, this will not bring about a long-term economic boom in the sense of a new accumulation regime that would valorize masses of labor power in the production process of capital.

The opposite will be the case. The desubstantialization of capital and the displacement of wage labor from the production of goods and the service sector will continue. This is why fears of a slump in demand for AI chips are unfounded; at least Nvidia will continue to enjoy healthy demand. Wherever “experienced people still press the same buttons in a race” (FAZ), the market-mediated rationalization pressure will prevail.[13] The price reductions for training units for large language models will only lead to an accelerated adaptation of this technology in the valorization process of capital, which has already been able to maintain its zombie existence for decades thanks to the production of credit-generated demand and fictitious capital on the world financial markets. The last echo of this global bubble economy of the declining neoliberal era is the AI bubble in the U.S.

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[1] https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/the-brass-balls-on-these-guys-openai-complains-that-deepseek-has-been-using-its-data-you-know-the-copyrighted-data-its-been-scraping-from-everywhere/

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/technology/meta-deepseek-ai-open-source.html?searchResultPosition=6

[3] https://9to5mac.com/2017/04/26/clippy-microsoft-office-mac/

[4] https://www.zdnet.com/home-and-office/work-life/the-microsoft-365-copilot-launch-was-a-total-disaster/

[5] https://www.dqindia.com/news/deepseek-sparks-1-trillion-tech-stock-meltdown-8662575

[6] https://apnews.com/article/trump-ai-openai-oracle-softbank-son-altman-ellison-be261f8a8ee07a0623d4170397348c41

[7] https://www.dw.com/de/deepseek-ki-aktie-b%C3%B6rse-nvidia-v3/a-71434687

[8] https://winfuture.de/news,148575.html

[9] https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/24/1110526/china-deepseek-top-ai-despite-sanctions/

[10] https://towardsai.net/p/artificial-intelligence/a-visual-walkthrough-of-deepseeks-multi-head-latent-attention-mla-%EF%B8%8F

[11] https://www.ft.com/content/ea803121-196f-4c61-ab70-93b38043836e

[12] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/labelers-training-ai-say-theyre-overworked-underpaid-and-exploited-60-minutes-transcript/

[13] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/medien/bullshit-oekonomie-deepseek-und-die-maerchen-der-ki-branche-110266144.html

Originally published on konicz.info on 02/16/2025

For a Piece of Land

Trump’s move will probably lead to an end to the war, but how much will Ukraine have to pay?

Tomasz Konicz

Are the imperialists in the Kremlin on the home stretch of their war of aggression in Ukraine? With right-wing populist Donald Trump taking office, Ukraine’s already hopeless military situation appears to have deteriorated abruptly on a geopolitical level. Immediately after taking office, the Trump administration froze all foreign aid – including aid programs for Ukraine. Trump has now entered into direct talks with Vladimir Putin.

He has now also specified what a geopolitical “deal” to end the war could amount to: Russia receives large parts or even all of the claimed territories in Ukraine (he is not particularly interested in which territories Putin gets, Trump said), the U.S. gets access to the mineral resources of the attacked country, the Europeans are to take care of security guarantees, and NATO admission for Ukraine is off the table. The EU states reacted with alarm and demanded to be included in the negotiations. However, the Trump administration does not appear to be willing to grant it a role in the negotiations, nor Ukraine.

Putin’s strategic calculation – which was based on a protracted war of attrition and Trump’s election victory – therefore appears to be working. The last time Russia’s head of state was challenged was back in November, when long-range Western missile systems were deployed against Russia. Putin declared this a “red line” in the fall of 2024, which would effectively drive the Kremlin into a state of war with NATO.

But Putin did not escalate at the end of 2024 because he believes he is on the road to victory in his war of aggression against Ukraine. And this in two respects. On the one hand, the protracted war of attrition means that Russia’s greater resource potential is increasingly coming to bear. It has already become apparent in recent months: Russia’s territorial gains in the east are accelerating, while the Ukrainian army is barely able to mobilize enough manpower for the front. Drones and information technology function as the great equalizer on the battlefield of the 21st century, making offensive warfare more difficult – similar to the machine gun during the First World War.

What remains is the firing of material and people on the largely static front until one of the warring parties collapses. This is why Russia’s gradual successes in the east are so decisive, as the best-developed defense lines in Ukraine have been overcome. Every other Ukrainian front line is weaker. Since the West will in all likelihood not intervene directly in Ukraine, the bloody law of war mathematics dictates that Kiev must lose the war of attrition if it is fought to the last consequences.

Logic of Escalation and a War of Attrition

The only realistic chance of a military victory for Kiev was a shake-up of the Russian power vertical, i.e. the loss of important decision-makers below Putin. This possibility briefly emerged during the revolt of the Wagner group around the mercenary leader Prigozhin. However, he has since been removed by the Kremlin, meaning that the opposition within the Russian elite lacks a military-organizational core that could spark an oligarch uprising against Putin’s disastrous war – which is also a socio-economic and demographic disaster for Russia.

The Kremlin is speculating along similar lines. Russia’s winter terror campaign against the Ukrainian infrastructure, especially against Ukraine’s energy sector, aims to erode the morale and resilience of the Ukrainian “home front” in order to minimize and ultimately destroy the mobilization capacity of the Ukrainian army and society. The increasing desertion in the Ukrainian army shows that this tactic is successful in the context of the war of attrition.

What both sides – realistically speaking – can aim for is the erosion of the statehood of the opposing warring party. Another form of victory, especially against Russia, is hardly conceivable. The enemy state should become a failed state – this war aim is indeed realistic because it is woven into the crisis-ridden course of events. The crisis of capital causes the brutalization and disintegration of state apparatuses – war only accelerates this tendency. Military conflict, as the ultimate form of geopolitical crisis competition, is the means by which this crisis process will be consummated.

However, the Kremlin has its sights set on victory primarily due to Donald Trump’s new term in office. During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly stated that he would be able to end the Ukraine war quickly through negotiations. For the Kremlin, the prospect of a victorious peace at the negotiating table therefore seemed realistic – especially since the U.S. is now entering into open fascization, complete with a reactionary political climate and an oligarchic power structure, which is also characteristic of Russia under Putin. It is obvious that the crisis of capital in the Western core has now progressed so far that they are approaching the shattered power structures of the post-Soviet semi-periphery. A dirty geopolitical deal on the corpse of Ukraine, concocted by authoritarian leaders of highly corrupt, fascist, oligarchic statesmen, is what the Kremlin is hoping for this year, and it now seems closer than ever to this goal.

Which brings us back to the Kremlin’s aforementioned red lines, which were crossed by the West at the end of 2024 in the form of long-range missile strikes on the Russian hinterland. From Moscow’s perspective, it seemed that these attacks only had to be accepted until January 20, when Trump took office. Why risk a nuclear war when victory seems so close? In the West – in Washington as well as in many EU capitals – the panic of closing the door was spreading. Much of the foreign policy initiated by Washington or the EU after Trump’s election served to make geopolitical processes and developments irreversible. The new faces, who are now allowed to live out their nationalism and imperialism in Washington, should be deprived of as many options as possible. Ukraine was supplied with weapons for the last time and its negotiating position was to be improved through far-reaching military options.

New Cuban Missile Crisis

In fact, however, it is only a matter of damage minimization, as the West’s defeat in the battle for Ukraine has long been openly discussed, even in the West. How much of Ukraine will have to be thrown at Russian imperialism in order to end the war – this is now the logic that is finding its way into Western think tanks. The only question still being discussed is whether it will be possible to give the “rest of Ukraine” any kind of sovereignty.

The crossing of Putin’s last red line, the release of missiles that can reach Russia’s territory, was a clear escalation at the end of 2024 that was sought by the U.S. in the interregnum between Biden and Trump. In practice, it only served to drive up the price that Russia had to pay for its victory in Ukraine. It was a kind of nuclear Russian roulette that both sides played at the end of November 2024. Largely unnoticed by the Western public, the world was on the brink of nuclear escalation for days. The difference between this and the the Cuban Missile Crisis, however, was that in 1962 the world held its breath in shock, while in 2024 Putin’s threats were merely annoying and barely noticed. Putin threatened nothing less than the use of nuclear weapons.

The new volatility in the geopolitical sphere, the increasing tendency towards war as a means of politics, even in the core, and the willingness to take ever greater military risks are an expression of the new crisis phase into which the capitalist world system is entering after the exhaustion of the neoliberal deficit cycles. The crisis era of neoliberalism with its construction of global debt towers, the corresponding speculative bubbles and its world wars in the periphery is finally coming to an end with Trump’s re-election. What now follows is a phase of open authoritarian crisis management, state erosion and military conflicts at all levels – including between the world’s political and economic centers. Putin’s state-oligarchic Russia, authoritarian Belarus – both manifest the future of crisis management in their unstable authoritarianism.

Originally published in analyse & kritik on 02/18/2025

Cancel Culture USA

The purges and deportations threatened by Trump have already begun.

Tomasz Konicz

It seems that what follows neoliberalism is based on the methods that neoliberalism used in previous decades to implement its infamous structural adjustment programs. They are fascistoid decay products of neoliberalism that are now unwinding the neoliberally deformed constitutional state in the U.S. The shocking implementation of controversial neoliberal austerity programs, taking the public by surprise with far-reaching deregulation measures; these tactics find their equivalent in the shock strategy that Trump and Musk are now using to eliminate any potential for opposition in the state apparatus. It’s all happening in quick succession – and these are just the first steps.

Immediately after taking power, in its first week in office, the Trump administration abolished all equality programs (DEI or Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) and introduced a whistleblower system in the U.S. administration.[1] Not only have all programs that were intended to give minorities greater representation in the state apparatus been abolished without replacement. The White House has also set up an email address where whistleblowers can report incidents that “circumvent” the new regulations, as the New York Times (NYT) put it.

What does this mean in concrete terms? The DEI programs, hated by the racist U.S. right, ultimately amounted to giving preference to candidates from socially disadvantaged or underrepresented minority groups in applications, provided they had the same qualifications as their fellow applicants. If this continues to happen, it could be interpreted as a continuation of the DEI measures, which could prompt losing applicants to report this to the Trump administration. Ultimately, this means that it is safer for decision-makers in the U.S. public administration and state apparatus to hire white men in the future in order to avoid career-damaging accusations of “woke” activities.

It is a thinly disguised racist regulation designed to expand the dominance of white America in its power apparatus. At the same time, it creates an atmosphere of tattle-tailing and suspicion based on racism, which is conducive to the control of large power apparatuses. At the beginning of February, lists of “targets” in the public sector were published online, containing names and photos of mainly black public sector healthcare employees who are accused of “woke” thought crimes, such as using pronouns, supporting Democrats or working on DEI initiatives. It is unclear where these right-wing denunciation sites (“DEI Watch List”) get their information from.[2]

The fight against the “woke” DEI measures functions as a versatile ideological vehicle for the return of racism – and climate change denial. Meanwhile, in response to climate disasters (fire in Los Angeles) and accidents (plane collision in Washington), the White House has even established the narrative of blaming the DEI programs.

Everything Must Go!

On the surface, Trump and Musk want to implement an extreme form of neoliberal austerity policy. The Orwellian construct of the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), led by Elon Musk in a legal gray area, wants to cut the U.S. budget, which totaled 6.7 trillion dollars in 2024, by two trillion dollars.[3] To this end, the Trump administration has sent emails to all 2.3 million public sector employees asking them to look for “higher productivity jobs” and to accept a severance package by February 6th that provides for continued pay until September 2025.[4] Shortly before the deadline, only 20,000 employees agreed to this arrangement.[5] In a first step, ten percent of public sector jobs – more than 200,000 jobs – are to be eliminated, which points to tough disputes in the coming months that are likely to provide the Trump administration with further opportunities for the reactionary politicization of the shrinking state apparatus.

The richest man in the world also had his crosshairs on the U.S. aid organization, USAID, which Elon Musk described as a “viper’s nest of radical-left marxists.”[6] For decades, USAID not only acted as a humanitarian aid organization, it also flanked U.S. interests globally as part of a standard “soft power” approach. The imperialists in the White House clearly want to do without this in the future. Nearly all 10,000 employees of the U.S. government’s aid agency have been laid off, and most programs in developing countries have been discontinued.[7] The U.S. State Department will now only directly control and manage a few selected aid programs.[8] In addition, around 60 U.S. foreign policy front organizations involved in promoting civil society and democratic structures in authoritarian states such as China, Russia, Iran and Hungary have lost their funding, according to the NYT.[9] Hungarian ruler Viktor Orban in particular – who was granted an audience with Trump in mid-September – has vehemently criticized these projects.

Another priority of the Trump administration is the education sector and the Department of Education, which he wants to deprive of most of its funding – not that it is particularly necessary. According to the report, the Department of Education is not only to be stripped of funding, but all its functions that are “not explicitly stipulated in its statute” are expected to be distributed to other departments, according to reports in the U.S. media.[10] This is expected to happen as early as the end of February. In addition to alleged cost-cutting constraints, the Biden administration’s programs for equality and tolerance in education appear to be the main motivating factors behind this move. Trump seems to be seeking a fundamental, authoritarian-reactionary new beginning here.

U.S. universities, which often have a liberal reputation, are also already in the Trump administration’s crosshairs. Hundreds of millions in state funds are on the hit list, so university leaders are avoiding public criticism of the previous revision of equality programs. Professors and university leaders prefer “not to provoke the president,” according to the NYT, as the financial screws are already being tightened.[11]

Hand on the Money Lever

Elon Musk’s biggest coup to date came in his capacity as a “special government employee” (the White House’s official term for the oligarch) in his attack on the Treasury Department’s payment system, which handles a large proportion of U.S. payments.[12] The so-called Bureau of the Fiscal Service is a mere executive body run by civil servants who are not political appointees. It handles nearly 90 percent of all federal government payments, such as social programs and tax refunds. It stores data on more than 100 million U.S. citizens and most government employees, which previously only a “handful of top non-political officials” had access to, according to the Independent.[13]

But now Musk has managed to access the data stream using his DOGE construct, and he has the support of Trump’s Treasury Department. The oligarch seems to be less concerned with the efficient processing of payments than with controlling them and possibly blocking any payments. This would simply mean that Congress, which provides the legislative basis for the payment office, would be undermined by the Trump administration. Musk has wanted to gain access to the payment system since December, but was refused by the now resigned head, with his team exploring the possibilities of payment stops in particular. In disputes with recalcitrant parts of the state apparatus, in repression against “ideological enemies,” as Rolling Stone put it, the Trump administration and its oligarch are now in the driver’s seat.[14] Anyone who doesn’t do their part is – without an ounce of bureaucracy – cut off.

If Musk’s actions are reminiscent of oligarchies such as Ukraine or Russia, where it is common to abuse state power to enforce particular interests, then this is because late capitalism in the United States is entering its oligarchic stage as part of crisis-induced brutalization.[15] In the meantime, a number of lawsuits have been filed against these actions by – let’s say – the Trump administration,[16] but these proceedings will be carried out in a judicial system that has been deliberately infiltrated by Republicans and right-wing groups for many years by means of political appointment campaigns.[17] The staunchly right-wing Supreme Court, which has already granted Trump general immunity for his second term in office as a precaution, is only the tip of the reactionary iceberg in the judicial system.[18] And it is precisely here that many of the Trump administration’s plans will be decided, as they operate in a legal gray area. For this reason, the Biden administration tried to fill as many judgeships as possible by the end of 2024 in order to counter the right-wing offensive in the coming judicial war.[19]

Fight For the “Deep State”

The fight against the so-called “deep state,” against informal networks in the ministries of power, which Trump has taken up the cause of,[20] is a classic right-wing projection.[21] The U.S. right wants to seize the “deep state” as part of its fascist impulse and,  if necessary, build it from scratch so that it never has to leave power again. The Trump administration’s attacks on the FBI and CIA serve this very purpose. It is not about destroying or weakening these state agencies, such as the Department of Education or USAID. Trump wants to turn them into his personal instruments of power – another characteristic of oligarchic, authoritarian systems.

The capitalist rule of law is practically on the brink of collapse. The subjectless form of capitalist domination mediated by the state and judicial apparatus, as implemented by the FBI and CIA at home and abroad, is thus degenerating into potential prey for particular interests. Which oligarch will win the next “elections” by spending billions to push through his interests via the FBI and CIA? This is the future that threatens the U.S. if Trump succeeds in his grab for the “deep state.” The suppression of any opposition movements by the United States’ highly trained and militarized repressive apparatus would be possible almost without interruption, regardless of the rule of law.

Trump is planning a comprehensive purge of the FBI, in which FBI officials who have investigated Trump and his supporters are on the hit list. This right-wing “cancel culture” targets all those who appear to be disloyal. Here, too, there is formal talk of “cuts”[22] to which six FBI leaders have already fallen victim.[23] The purges could affect “hundreds, if not thousands” of agents, according to U.S. media.[24] Every FBI investigator involved in the investigation following Trump’s attempted coup d’état in January 2021 is effectively at risk. In the meantime, FBI agents have even gone to court to obtain an emergency court order to deny the Trump administration access to their identities.[25]

At the CIA, however, which has a tense relationship with Trump due to his preference for despots, the usual threatening emails with severance offers were sent out – this applied to all CIA people without exception.[26] A spokesperson for the notorious intelligence agency explained that this approach was intended to bring the CIA into line with the goals of the new administration. As early as November 2024, CIA insiders warned that Trump wanted to politicize the intelligence service and transform it into a personal “weapon” to be used unlawfully against political opponents, for example.[27] Musk’s empire is already closely intertwined with the U.S. state apparatus, for example with space programs and intelligence services.[28]

Guantanamo For Migrants

This Trump crusade, in which the separation of powers and all checks and balances of the U.S. political system are to be undermined in the fascist tradition, is taking place against the backdrop of extensive deportations of migrants by the new administration. The United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was instructed at the end of January to achieve a daily arrest rate of 1200 to 1500 “illegal” migrants.[29] Countries such as Colombia, which refused to grant landing permits to deportation flights from the United States, were threatened with tariffs by Washington and brought into line. The same applies to Mexico, which is deploying around 10,000 soldiers to the border to secure it following comprehensive U.S. tariffs, which have been suspended by Trump for a month. The Trump administration is also deploying Army and Marine units to the southern border.[30]

The ICE migrant hunt, which is supported by large sections of the U.S. population,[31] is now proving too successful:[32] At the beginning of February, interned migrants sometimes had to be released because the detention centers were overcrowded.[33] But the Trump administration seems to have found a solution for this too. The infamous military base at Guantanamo, which served as a detention and torture center for Islamist terrorists during the “war on terror,” is to become a – well – concentration camp for all the migrants detained by ICE who cannot simply be deported. The capacity of this camp is said to be up to 30,000 people.[34]

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[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/25/us/politics/trump-immigration-climate-dei-policies.html

[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/federal-health-workers-terrified-dei-website-publishes-list-targets-rcna190711

[3] The White House stated that Musk was a “special government employee.” https://www.golem.de/news/doge-weisses-haus-aeussert-sich-zu-elon-musk-2502-193042.html

[4] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/31/us/politics/federal-workers-opm.html

[5] https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/02/04/trump-buyout-offer-federal-workers-deadline/78208851007/

[6] https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/02/04/usaid-marxists-once-again-elon-musk-again-displays-his-invincible-ignorance/

[7] https://time.com/7212938/trump-administration-pulling-almost-all-usaid-workers-off-job-worldwide/

[8] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/us/politics/usaid-trump-musk.html

[9] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/us/politics/democracy-human-rights-fired.html

[10] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/trump-administration-to-take-steps-to-defund-education-department/ar-AA1ylYd4

[11] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/us/trump-executive-orders-universities.html

[12] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2025/02/elon-musk-us-aid-social-security-data-heist-trump.html

[13] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/elon-musk-doge-treasury-payments-b2691375.html

[14] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/elon-musks-attempt-to-control-the-treasury-payment-system-is-incredibly-dangerous/ar-AA1yka77

[15] https://www.konicz.info/2014/12/05/oligarchie-und-staatszerfall/

[16] https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/03/unions-sue-block-musk-treasury-payment-00202243

[17] https://www.konicz.info/2021/12/25/amerikas-justizkrieg/

[18] https://exitinenglish.com/2025/02/26/a-country-for-old-men/

[19] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/senate-confirms-bidens-235th-judge-beating-trumps-record-rcna182832

[20] https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2024/11/donald-trumps-10-point-plan-to-dismantle-the-deep-state-revisited/

[21] https://www.konicz.info/2019/02/11/ich-will-wo-es-ist/

[22] https://www.yahoo.com/news/fbi-launches-wide-ranging-round-202334950.html

[23] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/30/politics/senior-fbi-leaders-demoted-wray/index.html

[24] https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/01/trump-fbi-revenge-firings/681538/

[25] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/04/us/politics/fbi-names-trump-jan-6-lawsuit.html

[26] https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/cia-offers-buyouts-to-entire-workforce-to-align-with-trump-priorities-sources-say/ar-AA1ytjkq

[27] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/former-cia-officials-worry-trump-politicize-weaponize-intelligence-age-rcna179024

[28] https://www.yahoo.com/news/retired-general-no-idea-got-222433140.html

[29] https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/02/04/everything-to-know-about-trumps-mass-deportation-plans-first-flights-to-guantnamo-bay-underway-white-house-says/

[30] https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army-marines-southern-border/

[31] https://abcnews.go.com/538/americans-support-trumps-mass-deportations/story?id=118194123

[32] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/fear-spreads-in-immigrant-communities-as-raids-and-deportations-escalate

[33] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-releases-some-migrant-detainees-detention-facilities-reach-109-percent-capacity/

[34] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-wants-to-hold-up-to-30000-detained-migrants-at-guantanamo-bay-heres-what-to-know

Originally published on konicz.info on 02/06/2025