Sahra’s Final Form

Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party BSW will hardly harm the AfD, but will instead shift the political balance further to the right

Tomasz Konicz

Above all, it is a legend that many Wagenknecht fans use to talk themselves into joining the Querfront: The entire phenomenon is purportedly directed against the AfD. Wagenknecht’s national-social formation, which is modestly referred to as the “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW), will effectively counteract the influence of right-wing extremism.

This logic can be summarized as follows: There is a significant potential for protest votes to be cast for the fascist-dominated AfD due to the lack of a populist alternative. Wagenknecht would now appeal to this group of voters and thus harm fascism – even if she might have to sound like a soft-spoken fascist to do so.[1] The FAZ newspaper, for example, warned the German right’s favorite leftist at the end of October that her party could only become “dangerous” for the AfD if it continued to become “radicalized.”[2]

Quite apart from the fact that the AfD’s self-portrayal as the party of the “concerned citizen” is taken at face value, the more serious problem here is that it is simply an expression of the pervasive tendency to reify thought. One imagines an open space for a Wagenknecht-led “AfD-lite,” which only needs to be filled with an appropriate political offer in order to weaken the AfD. Much more important, however, is that the general social mood has been moving to the right for years.

The political coordinate system, in which a gap is now being imagined for Wagenknecht’s “AfD-lite,” is not set in stone. Rather, it is a dynamic, constantly changing system that has been drifting to the right for years. Since the Sarrazin debate and the rise of the AfD, the boundaries of what can be said in public have been pushed further and further to the right, even to the point of open incitement.

The New Right has simply achieved discourse hegemony on many issues – as last year’s migration debate showed[3] – so that the idea of what actually constitutes the political “center” has also undergone a reactionary change. And her years of correspondence with the right-wing extremist Gernot Mörig make it clear that Ms. Wagenknecht has no personal fear of contact with Nazis.[4]

Fifty Shades of Brown

In this way, the BSW is simply furthering the rightward drift of the political spectrum in Germany, which is turning into outright fascism, by creating a political landscape with many shades of brown in which there are hardly any non-right-wing forces left (similar to the situation in countries like Hungary). This can currently be seen in the polls in Saxony-Anhalt, where only various right-wing parties – the AfD, the CDU and the BSW – would be represented in the state parliament if state elections were to be held there.[5] Even if, contrary to expectations, Wagenknecht’s national-socialist electoral association does not share the fate of her disastrously failed political project Aufstehen, this will not lead to a loss of votes for the AfD, but rather to a further shift to the right in society.

Wagenknecht has worked hard to create this constellation. Hardly any other politician has contributed more to the founding and rise of the AfD[6] than Wagenknecht in her lucrative role as a right-wing “taboo breaker” within the Left Party.[7] At the latest since the so-called refugee crisis, she has been precisely the political figure with a permanent media presence who quickly began to criticize Angela Merkel’s refugee policy from the right, thus supporting the AfD in its agitation against migrants, which earned her praise from many and several offers to join the AfD.[8]

For a while, right-wingers began to legitimize their public attacks on refugees by claiming that the “left-wing Wagenknecht” also shared their views. The Left Party’s “right to hospitality” (Spiegel), which liked to confuse the right to asylum with the right to hospitality, effectively paved the way for right-wing views to become hegemonic.

Added to this is the impressive pile of truncated, right-wing critiques of capitalism that the “financial market critic” has produced in her years of obsession with evil, appropriative finance capital – and which can be used to trace the genesis of fascist crisis ideology in quasi-textbook fashion, splitting the capital relation into a good, nationalist and generative one and an evil, international and appropriative one.

Wagenknecht’s Business Model

Since the refugee crisis at the latest, Wagenknecht’s business model has been to cloak resentment in pseudo-leftist phrases. The inventor of the oxymoron “left-wing conservatism” thus served the reactionary mood in parts of the Left Party. Her national-social taboo-breaking and all the “unfortunate” formulations were aimed at those currents in the party that were susceptible to right-wing ideology – and who are now largely leaving the party with her. Wagenknecht thus functions as a central figure of the German Querfront, which in effect acts like a conveyor belt, carrying right-wing ideology into the eroding left.

To the outside world, the German right’s favorite leftist, whose Querfront amalgam was readily disseminated at all times in the FAZ, Welt, Focus, Cicero and Weltwoche, appeared above all as a critic of the left. This was the second pillar of Wagenknecht’s business model that made her so popular with right-wing media: she delegitimized progressive left-wing politics with the force of a wrecking ball. Labeled “left-wing” on every talk show, Wagenknecht, who was constantly present in the media, often said reactionary things that were incompatible with left-wing principles. Her popularity in the press and on social media stems precisely from this ploy of presenting herself as a pseudo-left critic of the left and peddling bogeymen such as identity politics and the “lifestyle” left.

The Identitarian Lifestyle Right

These are projections that are widespread in the Querfront milieu. After all, the millionaire and socially isolated lifestyle right, with its political career focused on self-expression, is itself engaged in identity politics. In her latest book, Die Selbstgerechten (The Self-Righteous), Wagenknecht celebrates national identities as a “civilizational gain” and raves about the “wisdom and traditions” of the post-fascist FRG of the economic miracle, about “decency, moderation, restraint, reliability or loyalty […] motivation and discipline, diligence and effort, professionalism and accuracy.”

The Querfront ticket offered by Wagenknecht consists of adopting the right-wing demand for a fortress-like sealing off of Europe in the midst of a full-blown capitalist climate crisis, which would of course entail mass murder, while at the same time indulging in culturalist illusions of a once intact country enjoying the economic miracle – before it was destroyed by ‘68.

Against this backdrop, Wagenknecht’s recently publicized contacts with individual right-wing extremists from the Identitarian movement seem only logical. Cooperation between the AfD and the BSW is not inconceivable – provided that Wagenknecht’s electoral association not only has the necessary organization, but also manages to clear the five percent hurdle in this year’s state elections in eastern Germany thanks to a permanent presence in the mass media and millions in party donations.

Querfront and Class

The project of a fascism-compatible AfD-lite with a social veneer is apparently finding financially strong sponsors from the ranks of small and medium-sized businesses and family entrepreneurs – the very same milieu from which many AfD supporters were recruited. IT entrepreneur Ralph Suikat is considered the most important sponsor of the BSW. The internet portal Telepolis of the IT publishing house Heise – which was taken over by a Wagenknecht faction of the Left Party with cover from the publishers[9] – and Albrecht Müller’s Nachdenkseiten are largely in line with Wagenknecht. Sahra’s Querfront project can also count on the goodwill of media such as Berliner Zeitung and Freitag, which are owned by IT consultant Holger Friedrich and Spiegel heir Jakob Augstein respectively. Middle-class people, heirs, and rich, old, white men: it is above all this class, notorious for its reactionary dispositions and formerly referred to as the “petty bourgeoisie,” that supports both the BSW and the AfD.

The BSW’s media support is therefore now better than that of the Left Party. And Wagenknecht will continue to have an impact on the eroding left through these right-wing petty bourgeoisie media outlets – as long as the latter does not take an offensive approach to its Querfront history. And this does not look likely at the moment, not even in the Left Party, which for years tolerated the activities of its media front woman and now presents itself as a victim of Wagenknecht and a refuge for anti-fascism. This is also a party in which – it can be assumed – many opportunists are waiting for the upcoming elections before deciding which party offers the best career opportunities.

For more, see Tomasz Konicz’s most recent publication on the subject: the e-book “Fascism in the 21st Century: Sketches of the Looming Threat of Barbarism.” https://www.konicz.info/2024/01/13/e-book-faschismus-im-21-jahrhundert/


[1] https://www.derwesten.de/politik/afd-weidel-wagenknecht-bsw-wuest-a-id300793505.html

[2] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/was-sahra-wagenknecht-mit-der-partei-gruendung-riskiert-19257684.html

[3] https://www.kontextwochenzeitung.de/debatte/667/die-extreme-mitte-9310.html

[4] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/sahra-wagenknecht-hatte-jahrelang-e-mail-kontakt-mit-rechtsextremist-moerig-19456749.html

[5] https://dawum.de/Sachsen-Anhalt/

[6] https://www.konicz.info/2016/12/24/nationalsozial-in-den-wahlkampf/

[7] https://www.konicz.info/2016/08/11/die-sarrazin-der-linkspartei/

[8] https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/sahra-wagenknecht-linken-abgeordneter-fordert-ruecktritt-der-fraktionschefin/13928486.html

[9] https://www.konicz.info/2021/09/20/telepolis-eine-rotbraune-inside-story/

Originally published in jungle world on 01/25/2024 before being supplemented and uploaded to konicz.info

Fascism is Booming

The crisis of capital is driving masses of voters to the AfD – even if influential capital managers publicly polemicize against right-wing extremists.

Tomasz Konicz

There are indeed fascistic definitions of fascism. These views, most prevalent among the brown decay products of old leftist currents, see fascism, which is often driven by conspiracy mania, as a conspiracy itself. The basic idea is that the evil rich, acting in the background, use fascist straw men to set the good poor against each other in order to profit from it or to secure their rule.[1] Such pseudo-leftist conspiracy beliefs are usually an expression of a right-wing hegemony that has already been largely achieved. It gains popularity in the final phase of the fascization of a society, when even its opponents are unconsciously caught up in it.

The historical model for these ideologemes goes back to the rise of fascism in the first half of the 20th century. While the Nazis hallucinated the world as an absurd “Jewish-Bolshevik world conspiracy,” in which Soviet Bolsheviks and American finance capitalists were said to be pulling the strings together, the Dimitroff thesis, popular under Stalinism, saw the finance capitalists behind fascism. The definition, named after the Bulgarian communist Georgi Dimitroff and which became the canon of orthodox Marxism-Leninism, defined fascism as the “terrorist dictatorship of the most reactionary, most chauvinistic and imperialist elements of finance capital.”[2]

At the moment, however, it seems that Dimitroff’s thesis has been turned on its head, as it is precisely the “elements of capital” that are publicly positioning themselves against the threat of fascism. The president of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), Siegfried Russwurm, issued an urgent warning against the AfD at the end of December, calling it a “party that is detrimental to the future of our country.”[3] Voting for the right-wing extremist movement is not a “harmless” protest, because Germany lives “on cosmopolitanism and international trade,” Russwurm warned. With this, the capital functionary contradicted the common, long-standing trivialization of the AfD as a mere “protest party.”

“Poison for the Location”

Wolfgang Große Entrup, Managing Director of the German Chemical Industry Association, called the AfD “poison” for Germany as a business location and a major “threat to Germany” that even overshadows “high energy prices” and “excessive bureaucracy.”[4] According to the capital functionary, it would be “fatal” if the “right-wingers in Germany,” who are currently only “occasionally in power,” were to gain further momentum in the 2024 election year, arguing that the “growing number of indifferent people” should be motivated to “vote for an open society.” Former Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser, who has warned of the danger of the AfD on several occasions, expressed similar sentiments at the end of December.[5] The prominent industrial manager expressed his concern for the continued existence of democracy in the Federal Republic of Germany, as the majority of Germans would no longer support its preservation – with Kaeser openly drawing parallels to 1933.

Capital functionaries have sporadically taken a stance against the AfD in recent years, including Kaeser[6] and the presidents of the BDI, who criticized the impending “retreat into nationalism” in 2017,[7] or described the right-wing party’s platform as “poison for us as an export nation” back in 2016.[8] Nevertheless, the Handelsblatt complained in mid-2023 that while many “business leaders” harshly criticized the policies of the traffic light coalition, for example on energy issues, they would hardly take a stand against the AfD.[9]  There is a “conspicuous silence” here, although “no other party” “defames and discriminates against people who think differently” to such an extent. A corresponding “discourse” has long since been set in motion, which is also eating into the “variously positioned companies with their millions of employees.”

Mövenpick in Buttermilk[10]

High energy prices are more important to Germany’s captains of industry than the high poll ratings of right-wing extremists. Russwurm & Co. are functionaries of capital, not politicians. But why are several business representatives suddenly criticizing the AfD? The public managerial intervention against the rising tide of fascism effectively looks like damage control and image cultivation. Not so long ago, it became known that billionaire and dairy producer Theo Müller (Müllermilch, Weihenstephan, Landliebe, among others) met with AfD leader Alice Weidel in Cannes last fall to discuss the program of the movement,[11] which is constantly drifting to the right. According to a statement from Müller, the dairy billionaire was unable to find “the slightest hint” of Nazi ideology in a party that even the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, which produced Hans-Georg Maaßen,[12] largely classifies as “definitely right-wing extremist.”[13]

At first glance, these seem to be different political views, even among the ruling elites, pointing to the political division of the crisis-ridden metropolitan societies. Müller, who is said to have financed the right-wing populist “Republicans” back in the 1980s,[14] simply seems to have a similar personal preference for right-wing movements as the German “Mövenpick billionaire” Baron August von Finck, who lives in Switzerland and is said to have financed the AfD during its rise.[15] The big difference between the hotel chain owner Baron von Finck and the dairy prince Müller is that the Swiss tax exile went to great lengths to maintain secrecy, while Müller acts openly and has even announced further talks with Weidel. This open chumminess between a billionaire and the leadership of a party that is drifting towards fascism is indeed tantamount to a further breach of the dam.[16] This also explains the violent reactions of managers and BDI officials, who are worried about, among other things, the international reputation of Germany as a business location.

Brown Movement in Crisis

Something begins to slip when German billionaires begin to openly absolve the AfD of Nazi ideology, while someone like Björn Höcke is elected as the top candidate in Thuringia. The right-wing parties that are making inroads in many western core countries are not test-tube products, they are not political dummies behind which reactionary “finance capitalists” pull the strings, even if they may receive start-up funding from reactionary billionaires. They are real, genuine mass movements in authoritarian revolt, driven by an extremism of the center.[17] And they are usually perceived as disruptive factors by the functional elites in business and politics – especially when they are in their start-up phase.

These pre-fascist movements are the brown outflow of the crisis process that is driving the capitalist world system towards collapse.[18] Fascism is above all a crisis ideology. The economic and ecological dimensions of the systemic crisis are fueling its political boom. The AfD’s electoral successes are therefore merely an expression of the reactionary dynamic that is emerging at the heart of society in response to its crisis-ridden upheavals. Authoritarian personalities who cling to a society in disarray are particularly susceptible to this extremism of the center, which paradoxically speaks of overthrow in order to return to the good, old, “racially pure” times. The parallels drawn by Kaeser with 1933 are therefore entirely appropriate, for the Nazi seizure of power would have been unthinkable without the global economic crisis of 1929.

Fascism can be seen as a terrorist form of capitalist rule that emerges out of crisis as an attempt to maintain the capitalist system through barbaric methods and delusional ideology, even when it threatens to collapse due to its contradictions. However, the social and ecological crisis that is gripping the late capitalist world system is much deeper than the world economic crisis of 1929. The central difference is that it has become impossible to resolve the contradictions and the crisis of capital through a new model of accumulation that sucks in masses of profitable labor (like postwar Fordism), not even through a war economy. So there can only be a prolongation of the crisis, not a solution to it. It is no coincidence that even the bourgeois press is now talking about multiple crises, although they remain misunderstood.

Every new social upheaval gives new impetus to this reactionary, far-right dynamic, whose rise has been fueled by the crises of the past two decades: Hartz IV and the Sarrazin debate, the financial and euro crises, the refugee crisis, the climate crisis and the climate movement, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, inflation and stagnation. What exactly drives right-wing and far-right ideology to extremes in times of crisis? On an identitarian level, it is national identity; on an ideological level, it is capitalist competitive thinking, which is enriched with nationalism and racism.

The ideological reflex is always the same, as we saw during the Sarrazin debate:[19] A crisis surge is attributed to the hallucinated racial or cultural inferiority of the victims of the crisis. The causes of the crisis are thus personalized: The unemployed are to blame for impoverishment and unemployment, the southern Europeans for the euro crisis, the Arabs for war and state collapse in their region, the climate kids for fomenting panic and ruining our economy, and so on. These are the typical right-wing narratives, most of which go hand in hand with structurally anti-Semitic conspiracy ideologies (e.g., conspiracies about banking and financial crises, the pandemic, or the climate crisis). The deal that fascism offers to wage earners is simple: without the foreign groups who are labeled as boogeymen and who are not counted as part of the national collective (the unemployed, foreigners, etc.), we will have enough, even in times of crisis.[20]

The crux of the matter is that this authoritarian revolt will never come to power unless a substantial part of the ruling elite chooses this fascist option. Hence the intervention of the BDI and the public criticism of the AfD by top managers, since the billionaire Mr. Müllermilch could have read the party’s program on the Internet and is probably more interested in exploring the modalities of a possible AfD government policy. There are signs of an open split within the German ruling elite regarding the government participation of a party that is drifting to the extreme right – this was last the case during the euro crisis.[21] This is the decisive breach in the dam, because the Nazis were not a “party of chauvinist finance capital” either, but they would never have remained in power without the consent of powerful capital factions, without Potsdam Day.[22]

Export Slump – AfD on the Rise?

This is where the Dimitroff doctrine mentioned at the beginning becomes fully recognizable as an ideology, as a false consciousness that contains a core of distorted reality: Fascist movements come to power only in times of crisis, when the shocks and upheavals have reached such proportions that functional elites perceive these movements as the “lesser evil.” To put it vividly: only when capital managers are so deeply mired in the crisis that they are up to their necks in water do they hold their noses and reach out to the far right. And then there is no stopping them, because the fascist authoritarian revolt, which always craves the approval of the authorities, is fueled even more by this (which, by the way, also nullifies the left’s intention to shake up its supporters by exposing the powerful fascist backers. Authoritarian personalities are not deterred, but rather are attracted by the cronyism of AfD functionaries and billionaires).

In times of crisis, the reactionary vanguard within the functional elite tends to be made up of small business owners and SMEs, as can be seen from the links between the association of “family entrepreneurs” and the AfD.[23] Capitalists focused on the domestic market, such as Baron von Finck or Mr. Müller, also seem more inclined to consider far-right options than export entrepreneurs. The faction of capital that is most resolutely opposed to the AfD’s participation in government is therefore the German large-scale and export-oriented industry. It is precisely the globally active big business that tends to think strategically, that has to compete for top talent, that has also built up global production chains in the era of globalization and that has to worry about its image as the world’s export champion in its sales markets. It is not only personal political preferences, but also – and above all – tangible economic interests shaped in the era of globalization that have prompted the BDI and Siemens to harshly criticize the AfD.

And it is precisely the German export industry that is currently experiencing a downturn,[24] which actually marks only the beginning of the end of the export-driven German economic model.[25] The sharp decline in exports in 2023 has contributed significantly to Germany’s poor economic performance, which is unlikely to improve in the coming years.[26] There is a good reason for this: the economic dimension of the crisis that has gripped the global system[27] appears to be a crisis of overproduction, which has led to the accumulation of ever larger mountains of debt, with which a commodity production choking on its own productivity could be maintained “on credit.”[28] In the era of globalization, after the internal devaluation caused by Hartz IV and Agenda 2010, Germany managed to export the consequences of this systemic crisis – such as deindustrialization, debt and unemployment – through export surpluses. But this will soon come to an end, as protectionist measures are now increasingly being implemented worldwide. The United States in particular, as one of Germany’s most important trading partners, is increasingly resorting to protectionism,[29] turning globalization into a process of deglobalization[30] (not unlike the protectionist response to the crisis of the 1930s).

But this also means that Germany’s years of prosperity, made possible by export surpluses, will inevitably come to an end. The power-political weight of the German export industry will therefore diminish at a time when, for the first time in a long time, Germany is also entering a prolonged period of crisis, from which the New Right threatens to benefit once again. The AfD is already the second strongest force. The fact that the rise of the AfD took place during a period of relative economic prosperity shows just how thin the civilizational ice is in Germany; it was fueled by German fear of a crisis, not by an actual outbreak of crisis, as southern Europe had to endure during the euro crisis. Since the refugee crisis, the entire bourgeois-liberal anti-fascism, which has largely been in line with the arguments of the export industry, has emphasized the economic “usefulness” of globalization, open borders for the movement of goods and immigration. Refugees are economically useful because of Germany’s aging population, and the export country must remain attractive to skilled workers, at least according to the common arguments.

However, these narratives cultivated in the liberal mainstream will disappear as soon as stagnation and recession become entrenched in Germany, and exports will continue to decline, further fueling the “German fear” that so easily turns into hatred of the socially disadvantaged. Perhaps now is the last historical moment to prevent the AfD from marching to the far right, before pre-fascism is back by permanent stagflation.[31] Focusing on the anti-fascist struggle in broad alliances, calling for prohibition procedures and, above all, aggressively searching for systemic alternatives[32] to the escalating permanent capitalist crisis should now really be a priority for all non-fascist forces in Germany. Maybe it is not yet too late.

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[1] This belief in conspiracy often goes hand in hand with the trivialization or legitimization of fascist violence, especially among right-wing, old-left Querfronter, if it is only committed by socially underprivileged right-wing extremists. Here is an example from the magazine Konkret (12/2022), which is quite willing to be lenient in the case of pogroms and arson attacks if the Nazi only claims to be plagued by “fears of social decline”: “Those who are kept so busy with trips to the office, work and fears of social decline that they can’t think can only be blamed to a limited extent if they act out what public speech and government policy claim: namely that migrants are not people.”

[2] https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/dimitrov/works/1935/08_02.htm

[3] https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bdi-warnung-afd-100.html

[4] https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article249146036/Standort-Krise-Noch-gefaehrlicher-fuer-Deutschland-ist-das-Gift-der-AfD.html

[5] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/der-fruehere-siemens-chef-joe-kaeser-sorgt-sich-um-die-demokratie-19401907.html

[6] https://www.stern.de/wirtschaft/news/joe-kaeser-ueber-die-afd-ich-kann-intoleranz-und-ausgrenzung-nicht-ausstehen-8557180.html

[7] https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/bdi-chef-dieter-kempf-gegen-afd-schaden-vom-standort-deutschland-abwenden-a-1169718.html

[8] https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/politik-der-afd-ist-gift-fur-uns-als-exportnation-3762061.html

[9] https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kommentare/kommentar-afd-umfragehoch-das-schweigen-der-wirtschaft/29192600.html

[10] TN: Mövenpick is a corporation that owns hotels and produces expensive ice cream. They financed the AfD in its early days. The Müller company’s most popular product, müllermilk, is a buttermilk with way too much sugar in it. This section title is supposed to invoke disgust, by comparing the AfD to a very sweet concoction.

[11] https://www.konicz.info/2016/08/01/die-bewegung-als-bewegung/

[12] https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/hans-georg-maassen-innenministerium-verweigert-auskunft-ueber-ex-verfassungsschutzpraesident-a-5fc25a9d-f553-4dd9-a142-ada63e0c9838

[13] https://www.rnd.de/politik/afd-und-junge-alternative-wo-gelten-sie-als-gesichert-rechtsextrem-und-was-bedeutet-das-BEOYLLR67FCABBNQ6ESSRUZJWM.html

[14] https://www.fr.de/wirtschaft/muellermilch-bleibt-rechts-92707167.html

[15] https://www.konicz.info/2017/09/14/die-masken-fallen/

[16] https://www.merkur.de/politik/hoecke-ist-spitzenkandidat-der-thueringer-afd-zr-92681629.html

[17] https://www.konicz.info/2016/08/01/die-bewegung-als-bewegung/

[18] https://konkret-magazin.shop/texte/konkret-texte-shop/66/tomasz-konicz-kapitalkollaps?c=10

[19] https://www.konicz.info/2010/09/21/sarrazins-sieg-11/

[20] Leo Löwenthal already described these patterns of argumentation in his study “False Prophets” among fascist agitators in the United States in the first half of the 20th century. Leo Löwenthal, False Prophets, Studies on Fascist Agitation, Suhrkamp, 2021

[21] https://www.konicz.info/2017/09/14/die-masken-fallen/

[22] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam_Day

[23] https://blog.campact.de/2016/08/reich-maechtig-im-zentrum-der-hauptstadt-die-lobby-der-superreichen-firmenerben/

[24] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/konjunktur/aussenhandel-export-import-china-usa-deutschland-100.html

[25] https://www.konicz.info/2012/12/21/der-exportuberschussweltmeister/

[26] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/konjunktur/konjunktur-deutschland-diw-oecd-100.html

[27] See also: Claus Peter Ortlieb (2008): A Contradiction between Matter and Form, https://mediationsjournal.org/articles/matter-and-form and Robert Kurz (2012): The Climax of Capitalism, https://exitinenglish.com/2022/02/17/the-climax-of-capitalism/

[28] https://oxiblog.de/die-mythen-der-krise/

[29] https://www.konicz.info/2023/11/28/transatlantische-entkopplung/

[30] https://www.konicz.info/2023/11/20/neue-kapitalistische-naehe-2-0/

[31] https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/back-to-stagflation/

[32] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/03/08/radicalism-vs-extremism/

Originally published on konicz.info on 12/26/2023

Crisis Beyond the Bubble

Will stagnation be a permanent condition? An outlook for the world economy after the end of the globalized financial bubble economy.

Tomasz Konicz

The speculative air is slowly leaking out of the global valorization machine – but hardly anyone seems to have noticed. At the beginning of 2024, the World Bank warned of a “lost decade,” as the first half of this decade was about to see the worst economic performance in more than 30 years.[1] Without a “major course correction,” the 2020s will go down in history as a “decade of missed opportunities,” concluded the World Bank’s chief economist, Indermit Gill, as he presented the bank’s forecasts for the current year.

And according to the financial institution, the economic outlook is not exactly rosy. Global economic output is expected to grow by 2.4% this year, compared to 2.6% in 2023. If this economic forecast proves to be correct, 2024 would be the third year in a row that economic growth was weaker than in the previous year. There is therefore a clear global trend toward economic stagnation: Average GDP growth in industrialized countries is expected to fall from 1.5% last year to 1.2% in 2024. By contrast, the eurozone can hope for a slight economic recovery at a very low level, as they are expected to go from 0.4% growth in 2023 to 0.7% in the current year.

Global trade growth is also expected to be only half of what it was before the outbreak of the pandemic, which, together with high key interest rates, has contributed to annual economic growth in developing countries averaging just 3.9% this decade. This is a full percentage point lower than in the first decade of the 21st century. Developing countries need to achieve a much higher rate of growth in order to improve – or even maintain – the social situation of their wage earners. The medium-term economic outlook is no better. As early as mid-2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that global growth would be below average for the next five years.[2]

The End of the Bubble Economy

The crisis-induced stagnation of the late capitalist world system only becomes fully apparent from a historical perspective. As mentioned at the beginning, only the half-decade from 1990 to 1994 was characterized by worse economic development (averaging just over two percent per year) than the first half of the current decade, and it was only slightly worse then. But the early 1990s were marked by the collapse of the Soviet Union and Soviet state capitalism in Eastern Europe, which was accompanied by massive economic slumps that led to miserable global averages. In other words, the episodes of crisis that began in 2020 (such as the pandemic, war, and supply shortages) left similarly strong traces of economic slowdown as the implosion of the Eastern Bloc.

Almost all other five-year periods between the late 1990s and 2019 – the eve of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine – saw much higher average global economic growth of just over three percent. The only exception is the period between 2005 and 2009, when the bursting of the real estate bubbles in the U.S. and Europe (2007/08) led to a brief but severe global economic crisis (2009), which was overcome from 2010 onwards thanks to extensive economic stimulus measures and the central banks’ expansionary monetary policy.

The slump in 2009, triggered by the bursting of the real estate bubbles, points to the veritable bubble economy that the globalized world system had developed in the neoliberal era: From the dot-com bubble in the second half of the 1990s, when the internet boom led to a bull market in high-tech stocks, to the real estate bubbles that burst in Europe and the U.S. in 2008,[3] to the major liquidity bubble that has been deflating since 2020, all of which were sustained by the expansive monetary policy and money printing of the central banks.[4]

And it was precisely these growing speculative bubbles that acted as the main economic drivers in the era of financial market driven globalization. The tendency toward stagnation in the 2020s, which the World Bank laments, is due precisely to the collapse of this global bubble economy based on an ever-growing mountain of debt. Inflation, which central banks are trying to combat with restrictive monetary policy, made it impossible for another bubble to form after the crisis surge of 2020.

The Chinese Economic Brake

The connection between the economy and speculative dynamics, which characterizes a late capitalism that is choking on its own productivity,[5] can currently be seen very clearly in Chinese state capitalism, where one of the country’s largest construction investors, the bankrupt Evergrande Group, is facing liquidation – 300 billion dollars and millions of condominiums are on fire.[6] The gigantic real estate bubble that China created in the wake of the massive government stimulus packages after 2008 brought the “workshop of the world” double-digit growth rates for years.[7]

But now, despite Beijing’s best efforts to postpone it, the inevitable deflation of this real estate bubble is on the horizon[8] – and it is already leaving its mark on the economy. According to the World Bank, China’s economy is only expected to grow by 4.4% this year.[9] This forecast is based on a best-case scenario in which an uncontrollable crash of the real estate market can be prevented.

But even a controlled devaluation and liquidation of the overheated Chinese real estate sector will have serious economic consequences. This applies not only to export-dependent Germany, but also to many developing and emerging countries that are heavily dependent on the People’s Republic.[10] China’s debt-financed speculative boom was an important factor in the economic recovery after the major transatlantic real estate crash of 2008, but a similar constellation is no longer possible in the current phase of crisis. On the contrary, China will contribute to the general tendency towards stagnation in the future.

Is the Next Crisis Surge Already “Priced In”?

The spread of stagnation is the result of the partially successful fight against inflation undertaken by the central banks, which have turned off the money tap that was wide open during the era of the giant liquidity bubble, but are maneuvering themselves into a monetary policy impasse in which the goals of fighting inflation, stabilizing the financial markets, and stimulating the economy are increasingly coming into conflict.[11] This is particularly evident in the U.S., which was able to defy the general stagnation in the core of the world system with economic growth of 2.5% in 2023. However, the World Bank is forecasting growth of just 1.6% for the United States this year, which is due to “the restrictive monetary policy” of the U.S. Federal Reserve, according to Reuters.[12]

Fighting inflation usually comes at the cost of an economic slowdown (with the exception of the U.S. in 2023), as the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects shows. Then there are the destabilizing effects of high interest rate policies on the financial sector. The key interest rate hikes and the end of the central banks’ purchasing programs are making the financial sector more susceptible to crises, as bonds, stock markets and the real estate sector can no longer be supplied with sufficient liquidity and/or credit to continue the boom – there is a risk of crashes, slumps and financial market quakes, as was last seen in March 2023, when the slump in the bond markets led to a banking crisis in the U.S.[13]

The policy of high interest rates is therefore like a balancing act on a knife-edge, with the bloated financial sector and the global debt mountain as the biggest risk factors.[14] Continuing to fight stubborn inflation inevitably increases the risk of further crises in the unstable financial sector. To minimize the risk of crisis surges, the Fed last signaled to the unstable markets in December 2023 that the first interest rate cuts would come in 2024 if inflation rates continued to fall.[15] In doing so, the central bankers triggered a short-term price explosion on the stock markets that simply anticipated the potential end of the high interest rate policy in this bull market. The end of the restrictive monetary policy has therefore already been “priced in,” as the jargon goes, to the stock markets, where the future is always traded.

But what happens if inflation does not move as quickly as expected towards the two percent mark that the Fed has set as the target for its restrictive monetary policy? Then monetary policymakers, whose comments were intended to reassure the markets, suddenly find themselves in a quandary. At the end of January, U.S. central bankers indicated that there would probably be no interest rate cut in March,[16] after the U.S. inflation rate of 3.4% in December was slightly higher than in the previous month (3.1%).[17] This retreat in monetary policy brought the fleeting boom on the markets to an abrupt end with heavy price losses.

In addition, cracks appeared once again in the U.S. banking sector after the share price of the regional bank New York Community Bancorp plunged by around 50 percent in two trading days.[18] Like other regional banks, New York Community Bancorp is suffering from high interest rates and the related crisis in the commercial real estate sector in the U.S. The financial institution, which was actually considered a winner of the crisis in March 2023, has now had to book around $552 million in loan loss provisions and record a loss of $185 million.[19] A repeat of the March 2023 banking crisis triggered by high interest rates seems possible. The slump in Bancorp’s share price is also due to the fact that regional banks in particular were expected to benefit from the Fed’s “priced-in” interest rate cuts.

The U.S. central bankers have thus become hostage to their own policies: December’s chill pill is turning into a monetary policy bomb. The next bout of crisis is effectively “priced in” if the Fed does not soon return to an expansionary – and thus inflationary – monetary policy. This is most likely a fundamental contradiction that will characterize capitalist crisis policy after the end of the neoliberal bubble economy: it is a balancing act that is ultimately doomed to failure, an attempt to square the circle in the systemic crisis in order to combine the fight against inflation with economic and financial stability.

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[1] https://www.ft.com/content/b00ec9ec-5497-4543-aa57-f10873c8952b

[2] https://www.investopedia.com/imf-predicts-five-years-of-sluggish-global-economic-growth-ahead-7376580

[3] https://www.konicz.info/2007/03/05/vor-dem-tsunami/

[4] https://www.konicz.info/2021/04/13/oekonomie-im-zuckerrausch-weltfinanzsystem-in-einer-gigantischen-liquiditaetsblase/

[5] https://oxiblog.de/die-mythen-der-krise/

[6] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/evergrande-liquidierung-100.html

[7] https://www.konicz.info/2015/05/17/droht-china-ein-kollaps/

[8] https://www.konicz.info/2021/11/27/einstuerzende-neubauten/

[9] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/weltbank-konjunktur-wachstum-welthandel-folgen-schwellenlaender-1.6330300

[10] https://www.konicz.info/2022/10/18/china-mehrfachkrise-statt-hegemonie-2/

[11] https://www.konicz.info/2023/11/12/inflation-finanzkrach-oder-rezession/

[12] https://www.reuters.com/markets/world-bank-forecasts-2024-global-growth-slow-third-consecutive-year-2024-01-09/

[13] https://www.konicz.info/2023/03/19/die-silicon-valley-bank-als-das-schwaechste-glied/

[14] https://www.konicz.info/2023/11/12/inflation-finanzkrach-oder-rezession/

[15] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.html

[16] https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rates-01-31-24/index.html

[17] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

[18] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/31/business/new-york-community-bancorp-loss-dividend.html

[19] https://finanzmarktwelt.de/new-york-community-bancorp-aktie-verliert-32-massive-rueckstellungen-299547/

Originally published on konicz.info on 02/05/2024

Putin’s Calculations Were Correct

Ukraine will lose the war against Russia in the medium term – the only question is how high the price will be

Tomasz Konicz

How bad is the situation in Ukraine? Well, at the end of November, the White House felt compelled to deny reports that the United States and Germany were trying to persuade Kiev to enter into peace talks with Russia. Negotiations would amount to a “monologue of surrender” and there were no signs of a “substantial” willingness to negotiate on the part of the Kremlin, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department explained. Earlier, Western media reported that European and U.S. diplomats had visited Kiev to explore the conditions for peace talks. “Rough sketches” of “what Ukraine would have to give up in order to reach such a deal” were also drawn up, NBC reported in early November.

In reality, the optimal time for negotiations with the Putin regime has long since passed. In November 2022, after the recapture of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson and the humiliating withdrawal of Russian troops from the region west of the Dnieper, there were at least potentially optimal conditions for a “deal” with the demoralized invaders. Since that last great victory for Ukraine, the situation in the war has fundamentally changed in Russia’s favor. Since the end of 2022, Ukraine has not achieved any significant successes on the battlefield, while Russia scored its first symbolic victory with the fall of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in March 2023. This year’s Ukrainian summer offensive was a disaster, consuming much of Ukraine’s scarce military resources while allowing Russia to increase its material superiority.

Trenches, Bunkers, Drones

The Russian approach aimed at wearing down personnel and using lots of material, successfully established during the capture of Bakhmut, is now playing out in fast motion in the small town of Avdiivka, a suburb of the pro-Russian metropolis of Donetsk, which has been turned into a veritable fortress by Ukrainian troops since 2014 – and will soon fall. The city of Kupyansk, in the northeastern Kharkiv region, is also under threat. It is a mindless war of attrition in which the Kremlin is using its material advantage to bleed Ukraine dry. Every time either Russian or Ukrainian troops try to advance with concentrations of troops and tanks, they are pummeled by precise, drone-guided artillery attacks. Jubilant Western reports of high Russian casualties in the offensive mostly ignore the fact that Ukraine is suffering similarly high losses – and that Kiev can afford them far less than the Kremlin.

The strategic situation is reminiscent of the First World War, when the inability of all belligerents to the conflict to break through to the front led to months of “material battles.” Despite the monstrous six-figure number of casualties already claimed by the Russian war of aggression, the fighting in Ukraine may not be as heavy as at Verdun and the Somme, but for those affected, burning to death in the bunkers and trenches of the war zone, it is pure hell. There is nowhere to retreat to, as the omnipresent drone fleet has specialized in attacking the entrenched conscripts in their positions. “Hate drops” is the nickname that Russian military bloggers have given to this tactic of attrition.

In this war, the largest European slaughter since the end of the Second World War, it is quantity, not quality, that counts. The idea of using superior Western weapons technology to push the Russian army out of eastern Ukraine has been put to rest after the fiasco of the Ukrainian summer offensive. Russia has more artillery, more drones, more tanks, more aircraft and more manpower. At the beginning of December, Putin announced a further increase in the Russian armed forces by several hundred thousand troops. The Kremlin was also able to conclude several arms deals with North Korea and Iran, which ensured the mass supply of drones and artillery shells. According to intelligence sources, North Korea has supplied the Kremlin with one million artillery shells, while the West has so far been able to deliver only a third of the one million promised. Russia’s arms industry has been ramped up and is now producing at full speed, there is a shortage of labor, and Russian energy and raw material exports are financing this war economy.

The Russian military is also being innovative, trying to use the old Soviet weaponry as effectively as possible. Masses of existing Soviet aerial bombs are being cheaply converted into satellite-guided glide bombs, which Russian bombers drop outside of the range of Western-supplied Ukrainian air defenses, with explosive charges weighing anywhere from 500 kilos to 1.5 tons. Thermobaric missile systems, the use of cluster munitions on both sides, mine launcher systems that cut off retreating units after they have been shot up – the apparent stalemate at the front is paid for with human lives that are thrown at a military machine that is calibrated for wear and tear. That is until, at some point, a section of the front falls into disarray and a tipping point is reached, after which things can happen very quickly.

Crumbling Home Front?

On the home front of both warring parties, there is a growing unwillingness to be burned out in this increasingly efficient war of attrition. In the aggressor’s hinterland, in Russia, a movement, tolerated by the Kremlin, has emerged among soldiers’ relatives, who demonstrate for the return of their sons and the men who were mobilized last year. According to polls, the high number of casualties and the largely static front line are causing war-weariness in Russia, but at the same there is still a clear majority in favor of a victorious peace. The Russian people want peace – but only on Russian terms.

Despite the partial mobilization in the fall of 2022, the Kremlin has succeeded in isolating the majority of the population from the direct consequences of the war. The Ukrainian drone attacks and incursions into Russian territory have done nothing to change this. Moreover, after the “plane crash” of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, there was no organizational pole around which dissatisfaction with the course of the war could gather. In any case, the only realistic chance for Ukraine not to lose this war was through internal political discord caused by the war and/or a collapse of the Kremlin’s power vertical. Both became unlikely after Prigozhin’s death and the changing fortunes of the war.

In the beleaguered Ukraine, where elections scheduled for next year have been suspended because of the war, war-weariness can sometimes be quantified in concrete terms. According to the EU’s statistics office, some 650,000 men of military age have fled Ukraine for Europe since the war broke out. Ukrainian cemeteries have to be expanded in order to bury the hundreds of daily victims of the Russian war of aggression. In early December, relatives of soldiers who have been fighting since the beginning of the war demonstrated in Kiev for the possibility of demobilization. After more than a year and a half, they demanded that others finally go to the front.

In an obvious change of narrative, leading Western media are now also reporting on the growing doubts among the Ukrainian people surrounding the continuation of the war, as they face massive Russian attacks on the economically devastated country’s infrastructure this winter. As Russia prepares for a long-term war, new waves of mobilization in Ukraine are provoking increasing resistance, as the rampant corruption means that it is mainly poor, unconnected Ukrainians who find themselves on the front lines. In addition, if the war situation continues to deteriorate, there is a danger that the fascist Ukrainian right wing, which has gained influence in the military and state apparatus during the war, will at some point seize power.

Growing War Weariness in The West

The fact that the functional elites of the West no longer believe that Ukraine will win became clear at the last meeting of NATO foreign ministers at the end of November. The FAZ reported that NATO was scaling back its goals and that even “holding the front” was considered a success. But as long as Ukraine does not give up, “we should stand by it,” the newspaper commented. To what extent, however, remains to be seen. In the United States, Kiev’s main backer, right-wing Republican opposition to further military aid is growing rapidly in Congress, meaning that the long-term continuation of the war – and the Kremlin is planning a very long war – is uncertain. Europe, on the other hand, would not be able to keep Ukraine afloat militarily on its own.

It is specifically the war in Israel and Gaza that has fueled the debate about continued support for Ukraine because of the resulting material shortages, but there are also structural factors behind this growing war-weariness. The West would effectively have to switch to a war economy in order to provide enough material for the Ukrainian front. But this would be a momentous step that the West is not prepared to take. And even that would probably not be enough, since Ukraine simply does not have enough people to send into battle. Ultimately, only direct military intervention could save Ukraine from defeat in the medium term, which will not happen given the risk of a nuclear exchange of blows.

It is questionable whether negotiations offer a viable way out of this war. As we all know, the imperialist appetite comes with eating, and Putin’s war aims change as the war progresses. Russia’s military situation is much better now than it was a year ago. As a result, the price of peace will be higher, partly because Russia has suffered heavy losses and Putin, for domestic political reasons, absolutely must win a victory in Ukraine. This is not just about the territory annexed by Russia (the Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts) or other territorial claims (Odessa, Kharkiv), but also about the existence and sovereignty of the Ukrainian state. Moscow will not agree to Ukraine being tied to the West and will even work towards a “regime change” in Kiev to form a satellite state in the event of further military successes. It is well known that Putin considers the Ukrainian state to be a fiction.

Ukraine thus finds itself wedged between a West that is now primarily concerned with damage control and a militarily strengthened Russian imperialism that will demand a very high price for peace.

Originally published on akweb.de on 12/12/2023

Transatlantic Decoupling?

How is the United States managing to overtake the eurozone economically? And will this trend continue?

Tomasz Konicz

The United States seems to be leaving the eurozone behind economically. In recent weeks, the leading U.S. and UK business newspapers, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ)[1] and the Financial Times (FT),[2]  have focused on the widening economic gap between the western economic areas, which, according to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is set to get even bigger in the coming year. According to the IMF, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.5% in 2024, while the eurozone is expected to grow by only 1.2%.

And of course, these articles are accompanied by the usual hollow advice (“too much welfare state,” “too high taxes,” “too little work”) and malicious undertones that the weekly newspaper Die Zeit, for example, has complained about in its online edition.[3] Yet it was precisely this kind of spiteful discourse that was used by the German media against Southern Europe just a few years ago, at the height of the euro crisis – not least in Die Zeit itself. [4]

But why is the economic gap growing? The simple fact that the eurozone is not the currency area of a single state is certainly one thing that should be taken into account. Since the outbreak of the crisis in 2008, the eurozone has been characterized by fierce national disputes and growing socio-economic imbalances. The German core unilaterally passed on the consequences of the euro crisis to the southern periphery, the so-called “debt countries,” in the form of the Schäubler austerity dictate,[5] while Germany experienced a long, export-driven economic boom.[6] Washington was thus able to formulate a more or less consistent crisis policy, while in Brussels all crisis measures were always an expression of the intergovernmental power struggles in the eurozone.

The Gap Is Growing

However, if the economic projections for 2024 are correct, it would continue a long-term economic trend in which United States has vastly outperformed Europe in terms of economic growth over the past 15 years – although the difference between Germany and the U.S. is far smaller than the difference between Greece or Italy and the United States. According to the WSJ, citing IMF data, the European economy – measured in the world’s leading currency, the U.S. dollar – has grown by only six percent over the past 15 years, compared to about 82% growth in the U.S. GDP, which totaled about $14 trillion in the U.S. and the EU in 2008, is now more than $26 trillion in the United States – compared to just $15 trillion in Europe.

This economic divergence between the EU and the U.S. is also evident in terms of consumption and wages – another late consequence of the austerity paradigm celebrated in Germany[7] and imposed by Berlin on the highly indebted southern periphery of the eurozone during the euro crisis.[8] Fifteen years ago, on the eve of the transatlantic real estate bubble,[9] the U.S. and the EU each accounted for about a quarter of global consumer spending; today it is 28% in the United States and only 18% in the EU. Real, inflation-adjusted wages have risen by six percent west of the Atlantic since 2019, while they have shrunk in almost every EU country: from three percent in Germany, to 3.5% in Italy, to six percent in Greece.

However, this widening economic gap no longer leads to an increase in the standard of living for most wage earners – in the U.S., the decoupling of officially registered economic development from social reality has progressed much further than in the EU. The tense social situation of wage earners in the United States is reflected, for example, in the average life expectancy,[10] which has fallen to 73 years for men and 79 years for women.[11] In Europe, men can expect to live to 79 and women to 84 – and the gap has widened in recent years. The fact that almost two thirds of all U.S. citizens are now unable to build up any significant financial reserves and have to scrape by living paycheck to paycheck[12] – at a time when inflation-adjusted wages in the U.S. are said to have risen by six percent – gives us an idea of the distortions and whitewashing required to calculate the official inflation rate.

The American Advantage: Ukraine? Their Energy Source? Protectionism?

In short, we can say that the economic decoupling of the United States from the eurozone is well underway – even if wage earners west of the Atlantic are hardly benefiting from it. Beyond the pure neoliberal ideology that blames the welfare state, taxes or trade unions for Europe’s economic stagnation, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times also mention very real causes for the growing transatlantic divide in their articles. They cite, among other things, Washington’s increased economic spending after the outbreak of the pandemic and the U.S. high-tech sector, which has no equivalent in Europe, a region that is falling behind technologically.

The European economy is suffering much more from high energy prices than its American competitor, who can rely on cheap fossil fuels extracted through the environmentally disastrous fracking process[13] that has made the U.S. one of the world’s largest energy exporters.[14] This difference is particularly evident in inflation figures, which are consistently lower in the United States[15] than in the eurozone.[16] The Russian invasion of Ukraine also cemented the role of the U.S. as a “safe haven” for capital in times of crisis, especially since the EU does not have sufficient military capacity to conduct such imperialist conflicts on its own (a fact that has triggered the frenzied arms race in Europe).

Both newspapers also point out that the EU’s and Germany’s export orientation has become one of Europe’s main disadvantages. Until a few years ago, Europe and Germany were “massive winners from globalization,” according to the FT, but “that type of globalization” is now a thing of the past. The WSJ noted that with “cooling global trade,” Europe’s “formidable export industry” is also at an impasse. Europe’s “reliance on exports” is turning from a strength into a “weakness,” as exports account for about 50% of the EU’s GDP, compared to just 10% in the U.S. The rising protectionism caused by the crisis is thus creating a massive disadvantage for export-oriented economies and economic areas.

Background to The Crisis: The Impending Erosion of Global Deficit Cycles

With the erosion of globalization, the long-term economic strategy of strict export orientation pursued since the introduction of the euro by Germany, whose economic “business model” is based on achieving the highest possible trade surpluses, is also failing. This so-called beggar-thy-neighbor policy[17] exports debt, deindustrialization and unemployment to the target countries of the export surpluses. Initiated by Agenda 2010 and the repressive Hartz IV labor laws,[18] which massively reduced labor costs in the FRG, Germany was able to achieve extreme trade surpluses[19] with the eurozone until the outbreak of the euro crisis,[20] which contributed significantly to the creation of deficits and the outbreak of this European debt crisis. After Berlin had ruined the European crisis states through draconian austerity policies,[21] this export strategy was directed towards non-European countries.[22]

As a result, after the euro crisis, the eurozone ran high surpluses with non-European countries similar to those Germany had previously run with the European currency area. This can be clearly seen in the trade balance between the U.S. and the EU, which was put on an austerity diet by Schäuble.[23] The U.S. trade deficit rose from about $58 billion in 2000 to just under $100 billion in 2011, and then rose again to $218 billion in 2021 (Germany accounted for around a third of the U.S. trade deficit in 2021[24] ). But in 2022, European surpluses fell to around $202 billion due to the rise of protectionist measures in the United States. The same Financial Times, which recently painted a picture of Europe’s economic decline, described this change in Washington’s economic policy strategy in mid-2023,[25] initiated by the Trump administration and pushed further by Biden. At its core, it is a protectionist rejection of globalization. By means of a “foreign policy for the middle class,” the White House wanted to counteract the “hollowing out of the industrial base,” the emergence of “geopolitical rivals” and the growing “inequality” that threatens democracy.

A visible expression of the full onset of deglobalization is so-called nearshoring, with which the U.S. is attempting to replace its economic dependence on the Chinese export industry by building up industrial capacities in Mexico.[26] However, Washington’s protectionism aimed at reindustrialization is not only directed against its “geopolitical rival” China, but also against “German” Europe – for example, in the form of the Buy America clauses in Washington’s economic stimulus packages[27] and the continuing threat of transatlantic trade wars. In mid-October, the EU and the U.S. failed to reach a compromise in trade talks that would prevent the reintroduction of punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum from Europe at the beginning of 2024.[28] In addition, German automotive suppliers are still threatened with exclusion from U.S. production chains due to provisions of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act subsidy program. A substantial concession from Washington is also unlikely, as protectionism seems to be working. German companies are increasingly investing in the U.S. to take advantage of Washington’s subsidies.[29] Indeed, annual private investment in the United States has exploded: from around $75 billion at the end of 2020 to $204 billion by the third quarter of 2023.

Berlin spent the 21st century steering the Federal Republic[30] – and from 2010, in the wake of the euro crisis, the entire eurozone – towards an export-oriented economic model aimed at achieving trade surpluses in the globalized world economy of the neoliberal age. With deglobalization in full swing, the former export surplus world champion has found itself in an economic policy impasse, which in the medium term calls into question not only the economic stability of the Federal Republic of Germany, but also the political survival of the eurozone. The systemic background to the crisis in this new phase,[31] which is characterized by protectionism, is the increasing erosion of the global deficit cycles that characterized neoliberal globalization and its ever-growing mountains of debt.[32] The global increase in debt,[33] which has outpaced the growth of global economic output, has not been uniform, leading to imbalances in global trade. Export-oriented economies such as China and Germany ran large trade surpluses with the deficit countries, which had to borrow. And the U.S. has by far the largest trade deficit,[34] which climbed from about $328 billion at the end of the 20th century to $816 billion at the start of the housing crisis in 2008, and then to $1.17 trillion in 2022.

The United States thus resembles a black hole in a global economy choking on its own productivity where export-oriented industrialized countries can sell their surplus production.[35] This is why consumption plays such a central role in the U.S. economy. This is only possible because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency and the same countries that run trade surpluses with the U.S. also finance its deficits by buying U.S. bonds. China, which runs huge trade surpluses, remains one of Washington’s most important foreign creditors. This is precisely the core of the deficit cycles that have been established under neoliberalism and are an expression of the crisis-induced debt compulsion[36] of the world system: Hyper-productive capitalism runs on credit, with the U.S. in particular running ever larger trade deficits, while “exporting” “securities” in the opposite direction. In the U.S., the financial sector, which was constantly creating new speculative bubbles, gained a lot of weight. Many factors put an end to this absurd neoliberal protraction of crises: the growing number of financial crises – above all the real estate crisis in 2008 – the social consequences of deindustrialization including the formation of rust belts, the rise of right-wing populists like Trump, and finally the full-blown inflation that set in with the pandemic and the war in Ukraine,[37] which made a turnaround in interest rates indispensable.[38]

A Changing Battleground

As a result, Washington is no longer willing to accept the United States’ extreme trade deficits because the costs – political, social and economic – are too high. The Biden administration is effectively just continuing Trump’s protectionist policies. With this U.S.-initiated global turn to a new phase of crisis, the competition between states is also changing – the advantages that export-oriented locations like Germany had are turning into disadvantages in the dawning era of deglobalization and protectionism. The long slide of the euro,[39] which has lost about 50 percent of its value against the greenback since its all-time high in 2008, boosted German exports because of its structural undervaluation as long as trade routes remained open. But now that trade barriers are rising, a weak currency is simply importing inflation.

The U.S. seems to have all the advantages on its side to push the EU into a peripheral position economically and politically, as the European think tank European Council on Foreign Relations recently warned in stark terms.[40] Countries with trade deficits have a strategic advantage in serious trade wars, since their deficits tend to be reduced, while economic areas with export surpluses, such as Germany or the EU, can only lose in such disputes. In addition, deglobalization is characterized not only by a rapid increase in trade barriers (the FT counted 801 new protectionist measures worldwide in 2022, compared to only 210 in 2017),[41] but also by increasing bottlenecks and import barriers for key raw materials and resources that many new industries need. The U.S. has a crucial strategic advantage over the EU, namely its military machine, which it can use to intervene if necessary to secure the supply of necessary raw materials. This is an important factor for capital in deciding where to locate. Finally, it is the U.S. dollar that allows Washington to borrow in the world’s reserve currency.

At the same time, however, a new economic battleground is opening up that is closely intertwined with the protectionist efforts to reindustrialize the U.S.: the wonderful world of the bond markets.[42] Interest rates on U.S. bonds, known as Treasuries, have skyrocketed with the central banks’ turnaround on interest rates, meaning that the U.S. budget is likely to be burdened with exploding interest costs of $660 to $800 billion in 2023. At a time when Washington is forcing the re-industrialization of the U.S. through credit-financed economic stimulus programs, the cost of borrowing for the U.S. budget is rising.[43] The usual method of keeping interest rates low despite enormous government borrowing is currently unavailable: the Fed cannot buy up Treasuries as in previous years because this would undermine the fight against inflation – when central banks buy up government debt, they are effectively printing money. What’s more, central banks have trillions of dollars of Treasuries on their balance sheets, which were bought up with freshly printed money during the period of “quantitative easing.”[44] And next year, Washington will have to service some $7.6 trillion in debt, which will put even more pressure on the bond market (bond prices fall as interest rates rise).

The fall in U.S. bond prices as interest rates rise not only destabilizes the financial sector, as was recently the case during the banking crisis in the spring of 2023,[45] but also calls into question the strategic role of Treasuries in the global financial system, as the Financial Times (FT) noted in October 2023.[46] U.S. Treasuries are supposed to be the stable backbone of the global financial system, they are held by strategic investors (pension funds, insurance companies, etc.) who need to achieve a reliable, albeit low, return. The constant volatility on the bond market, the large fluctuations in the value of Treasuries, call into question this anchor function of U.S. bonds; they can hardly function as a “safe haven” in the financial sphere. The FT warned in November 2023 that the “supply” of Treasuries has long exceeded the market’s demand, as the central banks have had to stop their buying programs to fight inflation.[47] Analysts warned the business paper that Washington’s “fiscal framework” could not be maintained in this form.

The Fed has effectively had to play a central role as a bond buyer in recent years, as the most important foreign buyer of U.S. bonds in the 21st century, the People’s Republic of China, has been rapidly reducing its holdings of Treasuries. In 2013, China held about $1.5 trillion in U.S. bonds; by January 2023, that figure had fallen to just $859 billion.[48] China’s withdrawal from U.S. bonds could not be offset by other foreign buyers, such as the UK, especially as the debt mountain of the U.S. grows rapidly. In 2016, a year before Donald Trump took office, nearly 45 percent of all U.S. bonds were held by foreign investors. By the second quarter of 2023, however, that figure was less than 30 percent.[49] This withdrawal of foreign investors from the U.S. bond market, which really took off in the Trump era, is in fact a consequence of Washington’s protectionist reindustrialization efforts. This can only be understood in the context of the aforementioned deficit cycles. The implicit deal underlying the deficit cycles was that China’s export surpluses to the U.S., for example, would be financed by buying up U.S. debt. As soon as Washington unilaterally breaks this deal through protectionism, the tangible, material incentive for Beijing to continue investing the capital generated by export earnings in U.S. bonds also disappears.

Washington’s unilateral abandonment of the deficit cycle, which was intended to reindustrialize the country, is thus leading to the destabilization of the United States’ ever-growing mountain of debt. The economic advantage the U.S. has over the eurozone, which American business journals like to talk about so much, is thus accompanied by increasing financial risks, which German business journals in turn like to point out – with the spitefulness characteristic of bourgeois business journalism on both sides of the Atlantic.[50] For now, Washington can only hope that inflation in the U.S. will subside more quickly than in the eurozone, so that it can return to the Fed’s practice of “quantitative easing” (until it fuels inflation again). Otherwise, active economic policy would have to be stopped – which only points to the fragility of the economic recovery in the U.S.[51]

Ultimately, these economic policy disputes are merely executing the objective crisis dynamics in a late capitalist world system suffering from a structural overproduction crisis. The decades-long crisis process, which has been gradually eating its way from the periphery to the core since the 1980s, has now fully engulfed the latter. As a result, the transatlantic alliance is in a state of pure crisis competition: who will go down when the next crisis hits? The U.S., China or Europe? The trade and economic policy battles are thus acting as the executors of the crisis.

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[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/europeans-poorer-inflation-economy-255eb629

[2] https://www.ft.com/content/e0177eb7-8d17-48aa-a6ad-fccd0655f557

[3] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2023-07/usa-europa-wirtschaftswachstum-wohlstand-lebensstandard-lebenserwartung

[4]h ttps://www.zeit.de/2015/29/europaeische-union-krise-veraenderung-bruessel

[5] https://www.konicz.info/2018/08/20/griechenland-zu-tode-gespart/

[6] https://unrast-verlag.de/produkt/aufstieg-und-zerfall-des-deutschen-europa/

[7] https://www.konicz.info/2016/10/25/der-paneuropaeische-haushaltsdiktator/

[8] https://www.nd-aktuell.de/artikel/976285.suedeuropa-wird-lateinamerikanisiert.html

[9] https://www.konicz.info/2007/03/05/vor-dem-tsunami/

[10] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2023-07/usa-europa-wirtschaftswachstum-wohlstand-lebensstandard-lebenserwartung/seite-2

[11] The collapse of Soviet-style state capitalism in the so-called “Eastern Bloc” was accompanied by a similar, sometimes more drastic collapse in average life expectancy.

[12] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/31/62percent-of-americans-still-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-amid-inflation.html

[13] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/25/climate/fracking-oil-gas-wells-water.html

[14] https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/fracking-colorado-101.html

[15] https://www.statista.com/statistics/273418/unadjusted-monthly-inflation-rate-in-the-us/

[16] https://www.statista.com/statistics/265843/monthly-inflation-rate-in-the-euro-area/

[17] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beggar_thy_neighbour

[18] https://www.konicz.info/2013/03/15/happy-birthday-schweinesystem/

[19] https://www.konicz.info/2012/12/21/der-exportuberschussweltmeister/

[20] https://www.konicz.info/2010/05/04/krisenmythos-griechenland/

[21] https://www.konicz.info/2018/08/20/griechenland-zu-tode-gespart/

[22] https://www.konicz.info/2015/04/18/die-deutsche-exportdampfwalze/

[23] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html

[24] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4280.html

[25] https://www.ft.com/content/77faa249-0f88-4700-95d2-ecd7e9e745f9

[26] https://www.konicz.info/2023/11/20/neue-kapitalistische-naehe-2-0/

[27] https://www.konicz.info/2023/08/26/bidens-improvisierter-masterplan/

[28] https://www.manager-magazin.de/politik/weltwirtschaft/eu-usa-gipfel-europaeische-wirtschaft-enttaeuscht-a-280ff7dc-d173-425a-a8c9-f6a204cacccb

[29] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/weltwirtschaft/us-subventionen-deutsche-konzerne-investitionen-101.html

[30] https://www.konicz.info/2015/04/18/die-deutsche-exportdampfwalze/

[31] A brief outline of the capitalist crisis process can be found at: https://oxiblog.de/die-mythen-der-krise/ or https://www.konicz.info/2011/12/23/die-krise-kurz-erklart/ See also: Robert Kurz, Schwarzbuch Kapitalismus, available at: https://www.exit-online.org/pdf/schwarzbuch.pdf ; or: Tomasz Konicz, Kapitalkollaps. Die Krise als historischer Prozess (still available as an ebook).

[32] https://exitinenglish.com/2022/08/12/a-new-quality-of-crisis/

[33] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/09/13/global-debt-is-returning-to-its-rising-trend

[34] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0004.html

[35] https://www.telepolis.de/features/Die-Krise-kurz-erklaert-3392493.html?seite=all

[36] https://oxiblog.de/die-mythen-der-krise/

[37] https://www.konicz.info/2021/08/08/dreierlei-inflation/

[38] https://exitinenglish.com/2024/03/06/inflation-financial-crash-or-recession/

[39] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/boersenkurse/eu0009652759-25108390/

[40] https://www.brusselstimes.com/622334/europe-is-becoming-a-us-vassal-leading-think-tank-warns

[41] https://www.ft.com/content/3bd28362-c006-44c3-9f7f-a89a78452600

[42] https://exitinenglish.com/2022/08/12/mountains-of-debt-on-the-move/

[43] https://www.konicz.info/2023/11/12/inflation-finanzkrach-oder-rezession/

[44] https://www.ft.com/content/98cfe9c2-d7de-4825-8d8c-508b309c142f

[45] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/06/09/silicon-valley-bank-the-weakest-link/

[46] https://www.ft.com/content/40d9f352-82ed-4e4d-a53b-5f9404613d4a

[47] https://www.ft.com/content/7dada684-a6cd-413b-9adb-477b34a7a9f6

[48] https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/

[49] See chart no. 4 https://www.yardeni.com/pub/fofforholddebt.pdf

[50] https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/aktien/gastbeitrag-von-gabor-steingart-hier-zeigt-sich-die-verwundbarkeit-der-usa_id_247373167.html

[51] https://exitinenglish.com/2024/03/06/inflation-financial-crash-or-recession/

Originally published on konicz.info on 11/28/2023

Inflation, Financial Crash, or Recession?

What’ll it be? A brief overview of the contradictions of capitalist crisis policy using the United States as an example

Tomasz Konicz

It’s party time! The U.S. stock markets recently set off a veritable display of fireworks.[1] On November 3, U.S stock markets closed out their best trading week of the current year after dismal U.S. employment figures were released. The U.S. economy added only 150,000 jobs in October, down from 297,000 in September, and the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9% over the same period. This complete slowdown amounts to a halving of job growth, which points to a serious economic slowdown, perhaps even a recession. If that isn’t cause for celebration on the trading floor!

This seemingly absurd reaction of the financial markets, which are actually celebrating rising unemployment, certainly has a crisis logic to it. The markets are simply speculating on an end to the central banks’ high interest rate policy, which has been used to combat inflation. Fewer jobs and rising unemployment suggest that wage growth is slowing down and consumer demand is weakening, which should further weaken stubborn inflation. The aim is to prevent an inflationary wage-price spiral in which rising prices and wages feed off each other. The wave of inflation can only be contained if more wage earners can afford less – that is the simple speculative calculation behind the price fireworks.

The Fed’s job will now be much easier, Reuters noted, as wage growth slowed to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2021.[2] This would make further rate hikes, which had been discussed (the Fed does not want to talk about any rate cuts for the time being), unlikely. And this is exactly what the financial markets have been speculating on in the bull market that began in November of 2023. Rising interest rates, the main tool in the fight against inflation, are also poison for the financial sector. Although the central banks’ restrictive monetary policy has at least succeeded in curbing inflation, it is also putting pressure on the financial sector of the over-indebted late-capitalist core countries, whose market players are speculating on an end to interest rate hikes.

The same crisis policy that is being used to fight inflation is also destabilizing the financial sphere. At some point, “something is going to break,” as Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economist at Allianz, described the shattered state of the financial sector in early October, given the central banks’ continued policy of high interest rates.[3] The September jobs report, which showed the creation of nearly 300,000 jobs, was “good news for the economy,” but it was “bad news for the (financial) markets and the Fed.” But, one might ask, what exactly can “break” in the bloated financial superstructure of the over-indebted core countries?

An Unstable Bond Market

First and foremost, this refers to the bond markets – the bedrock of the global financial system[4] – which were at the center of the last “financial quake” in March 2023,[5] when a number of banks got into trouble or even had to be liquidated after the high interest rate policy led to a decline in the market value of government bonds. Bonds of core countries such as Germany or the U.S. are held as low-yielding collateral until they mature at par, but their market value falls when interest rates rise (because they have lower interest rates), which can put even large market players in distress once they suddenly have to sell bonds. This was the case with Silicon Valley Bank last March – it was forced to make emergency bond sales, leading to its insolvency and triggering a banking crisis.

Interest rates and bond prices are therefore inversely related: when interest rates fall, bond prices rise, and when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. The stress and pressure on the financial sector from the fight against inflation and high key interest rates can therefore be seen in the interest rate trend for U.S. government bonds. At the beginning of October, the ten-year U.S. bond yielded 5%, the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2007.[6] The market value of long-term bonds has fallen by an average of 46% since their peak in 2020.[7] And these high bond rates are having a ripple effect throughout the financial world, including public finances – it is no longer just a matter of fire sales by struggling banks that find themselves in trouble because of the falling market value of their bonds.

Bond Interest Rates and Budgetary Burden

However, the high interest rates and the falling market value of U.S. government bonds (“Treasuries”) are not only due to the central banks’ fight against inflation, but also to the government itself. According to Reuters, the U.S. government’s increased borrowing is leading to “increasing bond sales,” which also makes the government’s debt servicing more expensive (the increased “supply” of government debt can only be sold at higher interest rates, when it is more attractive).[8] As a result, Washington has to spend more and more to service its debt. The rise in interest rates cost U.S. taxpayers $625 billion in the first nine months of this year,[9] an increase of 25% over the same period last year. By the end of the year, interest payments are expected to cost more than $800 billion.[10] By comparison, Washington’s budget line item for defense in 2022 amounted to $877 billion.[11]

What’s more, the U.S. Federal Reserve is shrinking its bloated $8.9 trillion balance sheet as part of its fight against inflation by sharply reducing the bond and securities purchases that were customary in the era of the liquidity bubble,[12] so that the new purchases are less than the value of the maturing securities.[13] Previously, Washington could rely on the Fed simply buying government bonds with freshly printed money to finance the budget deficit. This money printing, which had inflated the Fed’s balance sheet from less than one trillion in 2008 to nearly nine trillion in 2022, is being thwarted by inflation. Washington can no longer simply print new money to keep the cost of the national debt down. The Financial Times speaks of an “oversupply” of Treasuries, which is accelerating their loss of value.[14]

The Financial Sphere and Key Interest Rates

The high interest rates used by central banks to fight inflation is having a knock-on effect across the financial world, including the hot U.S. housing market, where mortgage interest rates have at times risen to eight percent, the highest level in 20 years.[15] Two years ago, the average mortgage rate was still around three percent.[16] The exploding costs mean that fewer and fewer wage earners can afford to buy a home at all, further accelerating the social erosion in the United States (home ownership is the central social protection for the middle class in the U.S.). It now takes an average annual income of $115,000 to afford a home, about $40,000 more than the average wage.[17] Furthermore, the proportion of wages that homebuyers would have to put toward their loan has risen to 40%, up from around 25% 35 years ago. Not only is this effectively blocking the rise to the middle class, but the risk of another real estate crisis and economic downturn in the U.S., as is already happening in Germany, is rapidly increasing.[18]

Wherever large liabilities have accumulated in the financial superstructure, something is about to “break.” Take credit card debt, which will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2023, or corporate debt, some $3 trillion of which will come due in the next few years. The volume of the market for the highest rated U.S. corporate debt is $8.4 trillion – the interest rate here has risen to just over six percent, compared to just two percent in 2020.[19] Finally, high interest rates are also destabilizing the stock markets, which will continue to be volatile (a good jobs report caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop 430 points in early October),[20] as long as bond interest rates remain high.[21] As a result, the market highs mentioned at the beginning of this article are unlikely to be sustained over the long term. The era of prolonged financial market bubbles is over for the time being.

Falling interest rates would quickly reduce this crisis pressure, which is weighing on the entire financial system. The risk of something “breaking” immediately would be reduced. This leads to the seemingly absurd constellation in which poor labor market data, which could indicate an end to the high interest rate policy, is greeted with goodwill by the stock markets. For the time being, the actual inflation rate cannot serve this purpose. In fact, it has risen slightly in recent months[22]  – and at 3.7%, is still far from the 2% target of monetary policy. After peaking at 8.6% in May 2022, the Fed was able to push inflation down to 3% in June 2023 due to high interest rates and the end of its money printing through bond purchases, but inflation has since accelerated again. Inflation is essentially accelerated by external factors resulting from the ecological barrier of capital,[23] which are simply beyond the Fed’s control.[24]

Impending Recession in The Crisis Trap

The only way to fight inflation is by reducing consumption through an increase in unemployment and a de facto fall in wages (real wages have risen slightly more than inflation in recent months). However, the markets’ jubilation over the poor jobs numbers was immediately mixed with skepticism. The New York Times (NYT), for example, headlined that the report had sparked a “mix of concern and calm,” as worries about an inflationary “overheating” of the economy could turn into fears of a recession.[25] According to a recent survey of economists cited by the NYT, a narrow relative majority of 49% of respondents expect a “recession in the next 12 months,” while 42% believe a “soft landing” of the economy is still possible.

The business media even warned that the markets would literally stage a “rally into recession” as fundamental indicators pointed to a contraction.[26] For one, the strong growth in the U.S. (1.2% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the second quarter) is due to private consumption, which is being generated by the reduction in savings that were accumulated during the pandemic. In addition, the once broad U.S. middle class has melted away to such an extent that a long credit-financed consumption boom, as was common in the era of neoliberal financial bubble economics, is no longer possible. According to the latest data, some 62% of wage earners in the “booming” U.S. are unable to build up any significant financial reserves.[27] They live from paycheck to paycheck. The famous, broad “middle class” in the U.S. is thus virtually a relic of the past.[28] Added to this is the increase in government spending over the past two years (which, as mentioned, is now leading to a heavy interest burden on the U.S. budget).[29]

The United States, which – not least due to protectionist measures – had the best economic performance of all Western industrialized countries after the end of the pandemic, is actually facing a recession in the medium term. The fear of inflation and the threat of financial collapse is turning into a fear of recession, which, if deep enough, could also have a destabilizing effect. This is simply a manifestation of the fundamental crisis trap[30] in which late-capitalist economic policy finds itself.[31] With the onset of inflation, it is no longer possible to keep capitalism, which is choking on its productivity, in a kind of zombie existence by taking on debt within the framework of the financial market-driven bubble economy.[32] Consequently, politicians can only choose what path they want to take to crisis: Recession, financial crash or inflation? Even in the U.S., which has so far been able to decouple itself somewhat from the development of the crisis in the eurozone thanks to the protectionism of the Biden administration, this crisis dynamic can only be postponed.[33]


[1] https://www.ft.com/content/52e76c22-3e0a-420b-8fdb-b5594d74cba8

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/traders-see-fading-chances-fed-124624382.html

[3] https://fortune.com/2023/10/06/strong-jobs-data-good-news-for-economy-bad-news-for-markets-el-erian/

[4] https://exitinenglish.com/2022/08/12/mountains-of-debt-on-the-move/

[5] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/06/09/silicon-valley-bank-the-weakest-link/

[6] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-10-treasury-yields-hits-220507474.html

[7] https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/bond-market-meltdown-whats-happening-what-it-means-and-why-you-should-care

[8] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-10-treasury-yields-hits-220507474.html

[9] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-13/us-racks-up-652-billion-in-interest-costs-as-higher-rates-bite

[10] https://www.axios.com/2023/10/16/interest-rates-federal-debt

[11] https://www.statista.com/statistics/262742/countries-with-the-highest-military-spending/#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20led%20the,to%202.2%20trillion%20U.S.%20dollars.

[12] https://www.konicz.info/2021/04/13/oekonomie-im-zuckerrausch-weltfinanzsystem-in-einer-gigantischen-liquiditaetsblase/

[13] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

[14] https://www.ft.com/content/7dada684-a6cd-413b-9adb-477b34a7a9f6

[15] https://fortune.com/2023/09/29/mortgage-rates-two-decade-high-housing-market-home-sales-drag/

[16] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/07/investing/home-prices-affordability/index.html

[17] https://fortune.com/2023/10/18/how-bad-housing-market-affordability-redfin-115000-salary/

[18] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wave-cancellations-german-housing-construction-073436367.html

[19] https://www.ft.com/content/eca88341-4d17-4147-94c5-19d9bc873937

[20] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-plunges-430-points-yields-041424884.html

[21] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-wont-have-sustainable-rally-until-bond-yield-hits-pre-financial-crisis-level-183141192.html

[22] https://www.statista.com/statistics/273418/unadjusted-monthly-inflation-rate-in-the-us/

[23] https://www.konicz.info/2021/08/08/dreierlei-inflation/

[24] https://www.mandelbaum.at/buecher/tomasz-konicz/klimakiller-kapital/

[25] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/business/economy/jobs-report-october-2023.html

[26] https://realmoney.thestreet.com/stocks/we-re-rallying-right-into-a-recession-16137281

[27] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/31/62percent-of-americans-still-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-amid-inflation.html

[28] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/amid-inflation-more-middle-class-americans-struggle-to-make-ends-meet.html

[29] https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2023/10/27/us-economy-expanding/

[30] https://www.konicz.info/2011/08/15/politik-in-der-krisenfalle/

[31] https://www.konicz.info/2022/12/09/geldpolitik-vor-dem-bankrott/

[32] https://www.konicz.info/2017/08/07/wir-sind-zombie/

[33] https://www.konicz.info/2023/08/26/bidens-improvisierter-masterplan/

Originally published on konicz.info on 11/10/2023

The Illusion of Climate Justice

How Leftist German Opportunism Domesticated the Radical Climate Movement

Tomasz Konicz

The German left has arrived late to the climate crisis – and is still dragging anachronistic ideological baggage with it. Almost every current of the same stock-conservative left that for decades ridiculed or trivialized the climate crisis has now switched to the inflationary use of the term “climate justice.” No flyer, no event, no call for a demonstration can do without the use of a word that seems to amalgamate the “social question” with the climate crisis. From Junge Welt to Jungle World, from the Left Party to the notorious trade union left, from post-autonomists to old Marxists – if there is a common denominator in the climate policy statements of this regressing spectrum, then it is the inflationary use of a word in which opportunism, laziness of thought and ideological delusion merge.

Climate justice means that climate issues should be dealt with fairly. In other words, it calls for a fair distribution of the burden of the ecological transformation of society (“decarbonization”), and/or of bearing the consequences of climate change. At the global level, climate justice means that rich metropolitan regions should bear the brunt of the climate crisis and decarbonization, thus relieving and supporting the beleaguered periphery. According to this view, the climate crisis is the great catalyst that will enable a redistribution of wealth from top to bottom – both within each society and globally between core and periphery. The Green Party’s critique, formulated in terms of climate justice, consequently criticizes the lack of a social component in Berlin’s climate policy measures.

But the big problem with all this talk of climate justice is simply that the climate crisis is not a distributional crisis, so it cannot be addressed by raising the social question. The climate crisis is a systemic crisis,[1] which inevitably raises the systemic question. Capital, as value valorizing itself by means of commodity production, must burn up the world’s resources, it must deprive humanity of the ecological foundations of life in order to maintain its boundless valorizing movement. The eternal production of surplus value is the essence of the fetishistic capital dynamic. And it must be transformed into history – or it will turn the process of civilization into barbarism. It is not a question of “burden sharing,” but of the struggle for a systemic alternative worth living for. Specifically, it’s about emancipating ourselves from the commodity form, in which needs are satisfied only to the extent that they generate demand on the market. It is not a question of distributing more fairly the ecologically ruinous process of commodity production, which is only an expression of the valorization process of capital, but of overcoming it before it turns into barbarism.

Instead of babbling about climate justice, a left that still wanted to act progressively according to its concept would have to speak of a capitalist climate crisis to point out the necessity of the emancipatory overcoming of the capital relation as a social totality for the survival of civilization. Not because it would be popular, but because it corresponds to the objective reality of the crisis, because it is simply the truth. The transformation of the system is a factual necessity resulting from the internal, ecological as well as economic contradictions of the capital dynamic, to which the world serves as mere material for real-abstract self-valorization.[2] Consequently, late capitalist societies will break down because of their contradictions. What remains open is what will come after that. This will be decided in the course of the coming transformation struggle.[3] The task of the left would thus be to spread a radical crisis consciousness among the population – as a precondition for the possibility of an emancipatory course of transformation.

In order to overcome the fetishism of capital that unconsciously dominates humanity and arrive at a conscious organization of the process of social reproduction, it would be necessary, as a first step, to recognize the nature of the crisis as described above. People would have to be able to reflect on what kind of deep capitalist shit they are in in order to find a way out of it. It’s just a matter of saying what’s wrong. And it is by no means difficult or remote to practice this. Arguments that endless growth is impossible in a finite world are, as a start, understandable and generally comprehensible, without oversimplifying and distorting the problem too much. Meanwhile, a vague, unreflective awareness of crisis – or rather a sense of systemic crisis – has long been widespread among the population. It is a matter of consciously reflecting on this inkling of a serious systemic crisis in order to form a radical crisis consciousness out of it – that is, a consciousness that makes the necessity of an emancipatory system transformation for the survival of humanity the basis of any practice.

Bones for The Conservative Old Left

It is obvious that capitalism is incapable of dealing with the climate crisis. One look at the relevant empirical material suffices.[4] And there is hardly a pseudo-leftist term that obstructs this insight into the necessary transformative struggle for a post-capitalist future more effectively than that of climate justice, which distorts an objectively given anti-capitalist system question into a social-democratic-reformist redistribution question. Climate justice is merely ideology and opportunism pressed into conceptual form. While many groups or individuals may parrot this word out of ideological delusion and sheer thoughtlessness, there are objective factors that explain its rise.

On the one hand, it is the process of disintegration of the so-called “Left Party” that promotes the popularization of such linguistic monstrosities. The traditionalist, national-socialist and simply reactionary currents on the left, which Wagenknecht has oxymoronically branded as “left-wing conservatism,” are in the process of completing their transition to the New Right, which began a good decade ago, by founding a new party.[5] Yet it is precisely the products of the populist decadence of the old, anachronistic class-struggle Marxism that are driving this rightward regression. This spectrum of talk-show millionaires and Porsche drivers, in which an insubstantial, nationally colored and ultimately fascism-compatible fetishization of class-struggle is cultivated, is to be thrown a bone in the form of the catchword “climate justice” in order to keep the exodus of the old leftists from the ranks of the Left Party to the New Right in check.

The whole thing is already taking on comic features, resembling an absurd reenactment of the Stalinist fetishization of the proletariat, when, for example, Left Party chairwoman Janine Wissler extols the proletarian virtues of the list of candidates for the European elections,[6] in order to immunize them against criticism from the national-socialist Wagenknecht millionaires, who deplore an affront to “traditional voters” from the working class. The top candidate Carola Rackete, who has become known for her involvement in maritime rescues, is not only a climate activist who links “the class question with the struggle for climate justice,” she has also become acquainted with the “hard working conditions” of seafarers and is “clearly closer” to the working class than many others.

In a party milieu dominated by middle-class snobs and talk-show millionaires like Wagenknecht, this anachronistic praise of calloused workers’ hands thus fulfills an inner-party function: it is supposed to help integrate the regressive old-left currents in order to keep their drift toward the Querfront in check. This is accompanied by corresponding narratives which, with adventurous contortions (using mostly Marx quotations), attribute to the working class an objectively given, leading role in climate protection. This truncated leftist fetishization of class struggle may still be comprehensible in countries like France, which are periodically shaken by large waves of protest, albeit without consequences due to their blindness to the crisis. But in the Federal Republic, it is simply absurd.

“Ecological Class Warfare”?

This fetishization of class struggle has little to do with the German reality, where wage workers express their class standpoint as variable capital by raging against the “Last Generation” climate protesters, whose blockades prevent the timely resumption of work (and thus capital valorization). And the Left Party implicitly takes into account the class standpoint of variable capital (sorry, the working class!). Die Zeit published excerpts from a letter addressed to the climate movement by Die Linke’s top candidate, Rackete, among others, criticizing the Last Generation’s blockades and direct actions in the name of an “ecological class struggle” in which “climate protection must improve social justice in the Global North.” In the name of climate justice, “social inequality and class differences” should be reduced (so everyone should drive a Porsche, not just Klaus Ernst?).[7]

This social demagoguery, the crazy idea of reviving the old capitalist welfare state in the midst of the escalating climate crisis, is coupled with appeals for moderation in climate protests.[8] Radical forms of protest aimed at “media images” are apparently not a “sufficient solution,” activists must put aside their “missionary zeal” and also take note of other social problems. While it is right to clearly name the climate criminals, it is also be necessary to “continue to talk and participate and look for common concerns.” Radical actions would apparently prevent the formation of a “social majority” for climate protection, etc. These people express concerns that an “escalation of tactics” would lead to the climate movement losing its “connection to society,” and this is accompanied by the usual references to the parliamentary route, through which even RWE and Wintershall are now to be expropriated (probably in the same way as the Left Party implemented the expropriation of the Berlin housing corporations). It is simply absurd to write this at a time when late capitalist societies are in danger of losing all reference to the escalating climate crisis thanks to the constant stream of reactionary sound bites.

The whole thing reads like one of the usual attempts to domesticate, to bring under control, a disruptive movement that has arisen spontaneously.[9] It’s a classic example of managing a movement in order to serve the late capitalist functional elites as crisis administrators – and, en passant, it finally denies the old leftist belief in the historical mission of the proletariat. The fetishized “revolutionary subject,” despite the escalating capitalist climate crisis, wants peace on the labor front above all – and the Left Party tries to implement this veritable satire of “class interests” through strategies of domestication.

So what is the ecological class struggle? It is a survival, in the post-Wagenknecht left, of the dull German Wagenknechtism, which has always been outraged that people who want to work get stuck in traffic jams caused by the climate protests. A post-proletarian phrase-mongering that is supposed to enforce the interest of variable capital in smoothly-functioning capital valorization. This phrase-mongering around the castle in the air of the ecological class struggle serves to nip in the bud the real struggles that are being fueled by the socio-ecological systemic crisis. This is the “class standpoint” of variable capital – it does not want to be late to the work that is the substance of capital.

Radical Criticism – Even of The “Last Generation”

It is not only opportunism that fabricates such absurdities as a class struggle that seeks to avoid struggle; it may also be a simple ignorance of the crisis that fails to grasp the fetishistic character of the fully unfolding systemic crisis. The capitalist climate crisis is a market-mediated dynamic in which the boundless accumulation of capital must burn up more and more raw materials in commodity production. No one has any social control over this process of capital valorization, which blindly strives to obtain the highest possible rate of profit. This real-abstract process will only stop burning the world if it is either consciously overcome or if it collapses due to its own ecological and social contradictions – dragging the process of civilization with it into the abyss of barbarism.

To put it on the infantile level on which conceptual aberrations like climate justice are fabricated: The capitalist climate crisis – the interplay of capital valorization and greenhouse gas emissions – is absolutely indifferent to what obtuse old leftists or even entire sectors of the population think about it. There are no interests that profit directly from the increase in extreme weather conditions that devastate entire regions, no class standpoint that materializes in the threatening uninhabitability of entire regions. Capital as a contradictory blind dynamic of self-valorization destroys the world, society – and its own economic bases.

Even if the vast majority of the population clings to capitalism with all its might (which is probably not far from the truth), it will break down because of its social and ecological contradictions. What the population thinks about capitalism or the climate crisis is irrelevant in this respect. No one needs to be “convinced” or “picked up” to act in a somehow “revolutionary” way. It is not a matter of winning majorities for any “revolutions” that should result quasi automatically from their position in the valorization process of capital (the proletariat). Since there is no “revolutionary subject,” the question of crisis consciousness is decisive. There is only a chance of avoiding the fall into fascism if a radical consciousness of the character of the systemic crisis spreads among the population, and they start reflecting on the necessity of transforming the system.

And it is precisely this formation of a radical, transformative crisis consciousness that large sections of the left are sabotaging. The destructive fetishism of capital slaps the old left, which thinks in terms of “interests” and “class positions,” in the face every day. And it is almost admirable how the ideology of the old left, in cooperation with sheer opportunism, manages to ignore this time and again, to reel off the old class-struggle spiel, and in the meantime to push the regression so far that in its reactionary criticism of the climate movement, it calls for a return to Rhenish capitalism or 20th-century state capitalism in the midst of the incipient climate catastrophe. The tipping points of the climate system have already been passed, yet the regressive left simply wants to go back to the GDR or the old, West German FRG.

Of course, the climate movement – especially the “Last Generation” – should also be criticized. But a radical, progressive critique would involve confronting the concrete actions and demands with the reality of the climate crisis and the systemic crisis of capitalism. The willingness of activists to risk life and limb in dangerous actions stands in stark contrast to their naïve faith in politics, which they call upon to simply protect the climate effectively. This is where leftists who want to act in accordance with the concept must start, in order to confront these late-bourgeois political illusions with the reality of the systemic crisis. Criticism should therefore not be directed at confrontational practice, but at the well-behaved demands of the “Last Generation,” which would also anchor the necessary radical crisis consciousness in the movement. The disruptive actions of the “Last Generation,” which practically disrupt the everyday constraints of late capitalist business as usual, would then point to the actual, inescapable constraint of transforming the system, instead of feeding illusions about a political management of the climate crisis.

Systemic Crisis, Opportunism and State Capitalism

It is obvious that the capitalist climate crisis cannot be solved by raising distributional questions, either nationally or, more importantly, globally.

After all these decades, people should realize that the Marxist view of class struggle is wrong. Everything would be simpler if the proletariat acted as a “revolutionary subject,” if class struggles were the “locomotives of progress” – but they are not. In class struggles, variable capital (according to Marx, who was contradictory on this point, this is constituted by the working class in the process of capital production) negotiates its share of surplus value. And that’s it, there is no potential beyond capital. In view of the climate crisis, it is simply ridiculous to still maintain this fetishization of class struggle. It is similar with the world system. The ecological costs of China’s rise prove that an equalization of living conditions between the periphery and the core of the capitalist world system is ecologically impossible[10] – and that it is necessary to look for a post-capitalist path of development so that people on the periphery don’t sink into misery and climate chaos.

The reasonable, moderate consequence of the capitalist climate crisis is thus the search for a post-capitalist alternative, for ways to transform the system, as well as the corresponding, radical, categorical critique of late capitalist societies in all their agony. The ecologically ruinous and selective satisfaction of needs within the commodity form, the function of money as the universal equivalent, the subordination of society to the monstrous and fetishistic constraints of the capital dynamic, which is breaking down due to its inner contradictions – these must be questioned offensively. Not because this would be particularly “radical,” but because these categories are in the process of crisis-induced dissolution. This is no abstract prophecy. This process of self-dissolution is already taking place in a very concrete way, for example in the case of money losing its value through stagflation.[11]

What the Left Party, together with its ideologically blinded environment of old communists and trade union leftists, is doing within the left is marginalizing categorical critique and radical crisis theory, in order to make room for regression – the crisis-related assault of old left terms and concepts such as proletariat, class, and class struggle outlined above. The capitalist system is in an irreversible ecological and economic crisis. A transformation of the system is inevitable. The only open question is: what comes next? That will depend on the concrete struggles that will be waged during the period of transformation. And it is precisely this inconvenient, simple truth that the old left is doing its best to obscure. What is the point of all this? It can already be assumed that it is clear to quite a few decision-makers in the “Left Party” that they are propagating nonsense here when they react to the consequences of the systemic crisis with grandiose, failing redistribution campaigns.[12]

It is the stubbornly opportunistic hope for participation in government. The Left Party sees itself as the “social conscience” of the already failed Green New Deal, an illusory ecological transformation of capitalism – hence the absurd talk of climate justice and an “ecological class struggle,” accompanied by appeals for moderation in concrete protests. The anachronistic proletarian talk is only an expression of the fear of proletarianization in a party dominated by middle-class snobs, which stands on the edge of the abyss and seeks refuge in an illusory opportunism to avoid descending into the “working class.”

This fetishization of class struggle, which has degenerated into a mere phrase, is consequently accompanied by a pervasive fetishization of the state, in which all hopes for reform are pinned on the late capitalist state, i.e., an institution formed in the course of the history of capitalist assertion and indispensable for the valorization process as the “ideal total capitalist.” A state which, of course, has also long since been caught up in the processes of erosion caused by the crisis. In times of crisis, the state gains weight as a “crisis manager” – for example, in the 1930s, when state-capitalist tendencies often went hand in hand with the fascization of crisis-ridden societies. The threatening drift, especially in the Federal Republic, into authoritarian crisis management by an overgrown state apparatus interspersed with brown cronies, is sold, for example by Taz journalists, as post-capitalism by means of a cheap relabeling,[13] which arouses lively interest across a broad spectrum of left-liberal currents, from the trade union left to the stone-age communists of the junge Welt.[14] A longing for a warm place in the state and party apparatus – that is the practical reaction of these post-left currents to the crisis.

But the horror of being administered and harassed by ideologically crazed alt-leftists and morally derelict left opportunists in the coming systemic crisis pales in the face of the reality that is actually looming: for it is the new German right that, because of its rapid rise in the wake of the crisis, has the best chance of heading up the coming domestic capitalist crisis administration.


[1] https://www.konicz.info/2018/06/06/kapital-als-klimakiller/

[2] https://www.konicz.info/2014/04/04/automatisches-subjekt/

[3] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/02/22/emancipation-in-crisis/

[4] https://www.konicz.info/2022/01/14/die-klimakrise-und-die-aeusseren-grenzen-des-kapitals

[5] https://www.konicz.info/2021/06/29/schreiben-wie-ein-internettroll/

[6] https://www.nd-aktuell.de/artikel/1175630.linkspartei-janine-wissler-linke-sollte-sich-nicht-aneinander-abarbeiten.html (I thank Claas Gefroi for pointing out this interview)

[7] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/klaus-ernst-porsche-1.5488774

[8] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/01/23/opportunism-in-the-crisis/

[9] https://www.zeit.de/politik/2022-12/klimaaktivismus-letzte-generation-klassenkampf-carola-rackete-momo

[10] https://oxiblog.de/klimakrise-und-china/

[11] https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/back-to-stagflation/

[12] https://www.konicz.info/2022/11/07/rockin-like-its-1917/

[13] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/04/02/rebranding-capitalism/

[14] https://www.jungewelt.de/loginFailed.php?ref=/artikel/447267.klimawandel-und-ressourcen-weniger-soll-mehr-sein.html

Originally published on www.konicz.info on 09/06/2023

Schizophrenic Monetary Policy

How did the central banks manage to stabilize the financial system for the time being after the “bank quake” in March 2023? And what are the prospects for this form of crisis management?

Tomasz Konicz                                                    

The last banking crisis[1] that shook the financial system in March 2023 has long since disappeared from the headlines, but this does not mean that the financial system has been permanently stabilized. The market panic continued to reverberate for months. After all, it was finance capitalists in particular who warned against a return to business as usual in April.[2]  The U.S. billionaire Leon Cooperman spoke to the media of a long-term “textbook financial crisis,”[3] which had been caused by “irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies” over the past decade – just a few days before another ailing U.S. regional bank, “First Republic,” had to be “bailed out” and taken over in early May.[4]

What this seemingly cryptic accusation means was made clear by financial investor Jeremy Grantham in an interview at the end of April.[5] The Fed has “hardly done anything right since Paul Volcker,” Grantham lamented. It has repeatedly contributed to the inflation of asset bubbles through its expansionary monetary policy in recent years and decades. This has resulted in “a chain-linked series of super bubbles” that, when they inevitably burst, will have “outrageously consequential, painful effects” on the entire global economy. The potential for crisis this year is far greater than in 2000, for example, when the dot-com bubble burst, Grantham warned, because now it is not only the stock markets that have been speculatively inflated, but also “bonds, houses, fine art, and other assets.” As a result, the financial sphere is in an “everything bubble,” a bubble that encompasses many sectors and asset classes of the financial markets, Grantham said, paving the way for the inevitable “crash and a painful recession.”

The functional elites of capital are thus quite capable of reflecting on the basic features of the crisis process – even if they do so in an ideologically distorted way. The chain of financial bubbles,[6] the neoliberal financial bubble economy, the bursting of the liquidity bubble, the terrible crisis potential that has accumulated – all of these historical crisis processes are certainly perceived by finance capitalists, while the remnants of what used to be the German left[7] remain largely ignorant of the crisis.[8] What both of the above-mentioned finance capitalists – Cooperman as well as Grantham – fail to mention, however, is the simple fact that they themselves profited handsomely from the financial bubble economy, which was increasingly dependent on the money printing of central banks.

And it was precisely the speculatively heated boom of the financial markets in the neoliberal era that acted as a key, credit-financed economic engine. The system runs on credit, with ever-increasing speculative bubbles generating credit-financed demand for a faltering real economy choking on its own productivity. This is why the past few decades of neoliberal globalization – which was essentially a globalization of this systemically necessary debt dynamic through deficit cycles[9] – have created gigantic mountains of debt. It is so bad that even hardened speculators cannot help but notice the accumulated crisis potential and feel uneasy.

Let There Be Money!

And yet, it should be noted that the acute crisis outbreak of the spring of 2023, which frightened even the finance capitalists, was successfully contained by rapid countermeasures taken by the functional elites. The pessimism of the speculators quoted above thus seems misplaced.

It is therefore worth taking a closer look at this rather routine crisis management policy. The first measures taken by the U.S. government after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which kicked off the financial turmoil in mid-March, were aimed at preventing panic and stabilizing financial institutions. President Biden declared that the government would immediately provide unlimited protection for all bank deposits to nip in the bud any looming “banking storms” at other financial institutions where panicked customers would withdraw their funds (in the U.S., law only protects deposits up to $250,000). The Federal Reserve generated $143 billion for this purpose, which flowed to rescue companies and served to secure customer deposits at SVB and Signature Bank, which also collapsed. Not a single customer of the affected banks lost their money.

At the same time, Washington set about flooding the financial system with money to prevent a “freeze” in the financial sphere, which was a common occurrence in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers investment bank bankruptcy during the 2007-08 global financial crisis. At that time, banks were afraid to continue normal interbank trading because it was not clear whether their trading partners were in danger of going bankrupt. To prevent such a catastrophic shutdown of essential transactions in the financial sector, the U.S. Federal Reserve opened its money floodgates wide: in the week from March 9 to March 15, more than $152 billion flowed to ailing banks as part of a liquidity provision program known as the discount window.[10] To get an idea of the scale of this crisis intervention in March, just look at the previous week, when banks claimed only about $4.5 billion through the Fed’s discount window. This figure, from mid-March 2023, far exceeded the weekly peak in the crisis year of 2008, when the Fed spent some $111 billion to stabilize faltering banks within a week of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.[11]

In addition, in March alone, $53 billion was lent to banks under the new Bank Term Funding Program.[12] By early May, this figure had risen to $75 billion.[13] Under this program, financial institutions can deposit their government bonds, which are falling in value during the current period of high interest rates and which triggered the crisis in the U.S.,[14] at face value as collateral. The Fed thus had to suspend a market mechanism to stabilize the financial market (when interest rates rise, the market value of bonds falls). In March 2023 alone, the direct crisis measures taken by policymakers reached a volume of more than $300 billion, roughly half of all spending during the 2008 crisis surge.

The response to the crisis was also globally coordinated.[15] In the second half of March, the central banks of the U.S., the eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan, Switzerland and Canada agreed to ensure the supply of U.S. dollars to the reeling global financial system. In the process, the settlement of foreign exchange swaps was intensified. These so-called swap transactions, in which banks are supplied with the U.S. reserve currency, are normally settled on a weekly basis. But starting on March 20, the monetary guardians involved switched to a daily settlement of swap transactions in order to prevent possible liquidity shortages in the financial sector. Again, this can be seen as a strategy based on the experience of the crisis surge of 2007 and 2008. At that time, European banks had great difficulty in obtaining sufficient U.S. dollars to maintain their operations. This was prevented during the most recent financial market quake: the daily swap transactions served as “liquidity hedges to alleviate tensions in global financial markets and thus help to mitigate the impact of such tensions on the supply of credit to households and companies,” the Tagesschau quoted the ECB as saying.

This tactic of an extreme, globally coordinated money glut was actually a lesson learned from the 2008 financial crisis,[16] when Washington initially failed to act to “set an example,” and the Lehman bankruptcy led to the freezing of the financial sphere. Indeed, the measures taken in 2023 seem to have been successful. On the one hand, monetary policy went into “whatever it takes” mode, as one analyst put it, alluding to former ECB President Mario Draghi, who declared at the height of the euro crisis that he would do anything to save the euro – before opening the ECB’s monetary floodgates. Central banks can flood the financial market with freshly printed money, launch targeted liquidity injections, or simply accept devalued government bonds at face value, giving one the impression that they could contain any financial crisis. Monetary policy thus responded to the March 2023 crisis surge by “opening the money spigot” ever wider, as business media summed it up.[17]

The Interest Rate Screw and The Liquidity Bubble

But at the same time, central banks seem to be pursuing the exact opposite policy. To continue with the image above: Central bankers want to turn off the “money spigot” to fight inflation, and at the same time they need to turn it on to stabilize the financial sector. So far, both the U.S. Federal Reserve[18] and the European Central Bank[19] are sticking to their restrictive monetary policies, which consist mainly of raising key interest rates and shrinking central bank balance sheets. In the midst of the latest “bank quake,” on March 16, 2023, the ECB decided to raise its key interest rate to 3.5 percent. A few days later, on March 22,[20] the Fed raised the U.S. federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent.[21] After another round of rate hikes by central banks in May,[22] the key interest rate in the EU stood at 3.75 percent and in the U.S. at 5.25 percent. Following further increases in June and August, the key interest rate in the euro zone now stands at 4.25 percent,[23] while the Fed raised its key interest rate to 5.5 percent in July.[24]

The short-term billions in aid to the faltering financial sector in the spring of 2023 thus contrasts with the uninterrupted policy of high interest rates to fight inflation. Viewed in isolation, this anti-inflation policy appears to have been partially successful. In the eurozone, inflation, which was in double digits at the end of 2022, was brought down to 5.3 percent in July 2023.[25] In the United States, the official inflation rate was 3.2 percent in July 2023, down from 8.5 percent a year earlier.[26] Even if these official inflation figures are embellished, because wage earners from poor sections of the population in particular have to spend a larger share of their income on food, which is becoming particularly expensive, it must at least be noted that monetary policy has been successful in containing inflationary dynamics.

What’s more, monetary policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic are reaffirming their intention to continue shrinking their bloated central bank balance sheets. For context: The expansionary monetary policy of central banks that financial investor Jeremy Grantham lamented at the beginning of this article, which led to a “chain of financial bubbles” and ultimately to an “everything bubble,” has been accompanied by the massive purchase of financial market securities by central banks at least since the crisis hit in 2008. After the bursting of the great real estate bubble in the U.S. and Europe, the ECB, the Fed and the central banks of Great Britain and Japan initially bought up non-tradable mortgage securitizations in order to stabilize the paralyzed financial markets. After that, central banks increasingly bought up government debt to finance the gigantic government deficits and stimulus packages.

Governments supported the economy with massive stimulus packages, while the central banks bought up more and more government debt to keep interest rates low. With these purchasing programs, the central banks effectively became dumping grounds for the junk that burdened the financial sector. At the same time, the mass purchase of financial securities and government debt injected massive amounts of liquidity into the financial system. The whole thing resembles a money printing operation conducted via the financial markets. The basic principle is simple: The central banks pumped fresh liquidity into the financial markets through purchasing programs, which led to “inflation,” an increase in the prices of financial market goods – and created the liquidity bubble, the lamented “everything bubble” of recent years.

The concrete figures impressively reflect this long-term trend toward outright central bank capitalism.[27] Before the bursting of the great transatlantic real estate bubble, in early 2007, the balance sheets of the central banks of the U.S., the EU and Japan totaled just over three trillion dollars – by the end of 2008, they had already reached almost seven trillion dollars. By 2017, various purchase programs by these central banks had gradually swelled their balance sheets to a total of about $15 trillion. The pandemic triggered the next major wave of purchases – and, in effect, money printing – which catapulted the central bank balance sheets of the three aforementioned central states to a staggering $25 trillion.[28]

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde – Monetary Schizophrenia in the Crisis Trap

The world system, choking on the hyper-productivity of its commodity production, is increasingly running on credit through demand generated in the financial sphere. The money printing of the central banks plays an increasingly important role in the formation of corresponding speculation and credit bases. This has come to an end with the onset of worldwide inflationary dynamics.[29] Not only must interest rates be raised, but the central banks must also reduce their purchases of government and financial securities in order to at least curb inflation, thereby depriving the financial sphere of its most important “fuel” for the formation of ever new bubbles. The financial market turmoil in the spring of 2023, the banking crisis in the U.S., is precisely the consequence of the withdrawal of liquidity by the central banks.

Bourgeois monetary and economic policy is thus caught in a crisis trap: it would have to lower interest rates and continue printing money to support the economy and the unstable financial markets. At the same time, however, the central banks would have to raise interest rates and switch to a restrictive monetary policy in order to contain inflation – to the extent that this is possible at all through monetary policy alone.[30] In order to square this circle, at least to some extent, central banks seem to be resorting to a kind of monetary policy schizophrenia, in which the general tendency to reduce banks’ balance sheets turns into short episodes of expansionary monetary policy in times of crisis. The reduced purchases of government and financial securities by central banks[31] turn into the expansionary crisis policy of “whatever it takes” described above in the event of a crisis, with trillions being spent to stabilize the financial system.

The hope of monetary policy seems to be that the balance sheet totals of the central banks can be reduced in the longer term, despite the short-term interventions in the financial markets, which are, as it were, in withdrawal. This shift in monetary policy from the “sensible” Dr. Jekyll mode of fighting inflation to the wild Mr. Hyde mode, in which money is just being thrown around, is very well illustrated by the crisis surge of spring 2023 mentioned at the beginning of this article.[32] The Fed reduced its balance sheet from about $8.9 trillion in April 2022 to about $8.38 trillion in February 2023. When this liquidity withdrawal triggered the March 2023 banking quake, the Fed’s total assets shot up to $8.73 trillion (the monetary policy Mr. Hyde followed the motto of “whatever it takes”). The stabilization was successful – at least temporarily – and since then the Fed’s total assets have gradually fallen to $8.12 trillion.

So, after a few weeks of gigantic monetary expansion, the Fed has gone back to restrictive monetary policy, to Dr. Jekyll mode, as it were. And this is not just an American anomaly. The reduction in the balance sheet total, interrupted by episodes of expansionary monetary policy, has also been taking place at the ECB and, to a somewhat lesser extent, at the Bank of Japan since 2022,[33] with the result that the combined balance sheet of all three central banks has shrunk from around $25 trillion at the end of 2021 to around $21 trillion in August 2023. This calculation thus seems to be working – as long as the financial sphere is not shaken by another crisis surge, which would in turn make a money glut necessary.

Outlook: End of the Liquidity Bubble and Permanent Stagflation

The March 2023 banking quake thus marks a decisive turning point in the historical unfolding of the crisis, as the financial sphere is no longer in the liquidity bubble that emerged after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the course of crisis management starting in 2009. The financial sphere has been dependent on central bank asset purchase programs since 2009, and this can be empirically verified. Since 2009, there has been a clear correlation between the rise in the S&P 500 index and the size of central bank balance sheets.[34] The stock boom, as part of the liquidity bubble, was fueled by central bank money printing during a long upward phase until a decoupling occurred in the spring of 2023: Central bank balance sheets shrank, while stock markets went through a recovery phase after the 2022 slumps, when the end of this expansionary monetary policy shook the financial sphere.

What drives the stock markets? A look at past speculative cycles can provide clues. For one thing, the current bull market is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble at the beginning of the 21st century, when the spread of the Internet was accompanied by hopes of a new regime of accumulation and by a speculative mania for high-tech stocks that collapsed in the second half of 2000. This time, it is speculation about breakthroughs in the development of artificial intelligence that is fueling a similar stock boom.[35] Moreover, high interest rates have an ambivalent effect – especially in the U.S., which, despite all the erosion processes, is still considered a safe haven for capital in times of crisis. High interest rates destabilize the over-indebted financial system, but they also lead to capital inflows that can partially counteract this. This is especially true for the U.S., which is currently engaged in a hegemonic struggle with China over the dollar’s position as the world’s money. Capital that was safely parked in the last crisis surge is now trying to make another quick buck in the big AI boom – before this bubble bursts, too.

Consequently, this speculation-driven stock boom cannot be sustained unless it is supported by renewed expansionary monetary policy, as was the case in the 12 years prior to the onset of inflation. The current renaissance of the stock markets, many of which have already reached their pre-crisis levels of late 2021, cannot be sustained without permanent support from monetary policy. Again, it is helpful to look at the history of the great liquidity bubble, where there were also periods when booming stock markets were decoupled from the phased stagnation of central bank balance sheet growth. This usually happened on the eve of a crisis surge, such as in 2019, shortly before the pandemic once again sent the overheated global financial house of cards into crisis mode. The current, fleeting stock market boom is also isolated; it is – at least in Europe – no longer part of a general liquidity bubble, the aforementioned “everything bubble.” The real estate markets in Germany and the UK are in crisis, and even in the U.S. the stagnating housing market is no longer driving the economy.[36]

The end of this short-term stock market boom will trigger the usual monetary policy reaction to crisis outlined above, which in turn will open the monetary floodgates of the central banks wide in order to prevent a meltdown of the world financial system. This contradictory compulsion of the crisis policy[37] of late capitalism results in a persistent tendency toward stagflation, i.e., severe currency devaluation in a stagnating economy.[38] Stagflation will become the “new normal” for the further unfolding of the crisis. Depending on the current crisis, and indeed on whether money is being printed or interest rates are being tightened, different moments of stagflation are likely to prevail: stagnation in phases of restrictive monetary policy, acceleration of inflation in the wake of expansionary monetary policy crisis measures.

Protectionism and Increasing Economic Divergences

Moreover, the new phase of the crisis will lead to an accelerated socioeconomic divergence even within the Western centers of the world system, caused by increasing protectionism. The United States is in the process of reorganizing its industrial base at the expense of its competitors through protectionist measures, especially in the context of its stimulus packages.[39] It is no longer just about punitive tariffs. In response to the pandemic, Biden passed the American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion economic flash in the pan. This was followed by $52.7 billion in subsidies for the microchip industry (the CHIPS bill), and finally the $500 billion Inflation Reduction Act, which provides for investments in infrastructure and “green industries” – and is peppered with “Buy American” clauses, as the FAZ lamented.[40] And it is probably precisely such provisions that favor U.S. manufacturers in stimulus packages that have led to the doubling of industrial investment in the U.S. since 2021.[41]

The turn to state capitalism and protectionism in response to crisis episodes is not new. The crisis phase now underway is reminiscent of the 1930s, when the great crash of 1929 triggered a turn to state dirigisme, protectionism and nationalism in almost all metropolitan countries – with the familiar economic and political consequences. These historical lessons, which were still present in the reaction to the crisis surge of 2007/2008, have now been forgotten due to the increasing social contradictions. The global tower of debt created by means of deficit cycles is collapsing, which will intensify the competition between “locations.” The stimulus measures and investment policies of the Biden administration have been partially successful precisely because they have the protectionist component lamented by the EU – and because this protectionism has not yet been generalized.

The growing economic divergence between the resurgent U.S. and the faltering eurozone is due precisely to U.S. protectionism, to the Biden administration’s reindustrialization efforts, which are hitting the export-dependent German economy particularly hard. And they will inevitably lead to a corresponding response from the EU. U.S. protectionism may temporarily succeed in passing on the consequences of the crisis to the competition – that is, until the latter follows suit in terms of protectionism.


[1] https://exitinenglish.com/2023/06/09/silicon-valley-bank-the-weakest-link/

[2] https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/fintech-versicherung-banken/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warnt-bankenkrise-noch-nicht-vorbei-20329741.html

[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-leon-cooperman-says-174658759.html

[4] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/first-republic-100.html

[5] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeremy-grantham-warns-everything-bubble-114500878.html

[6] https://www.konicz.info/2019/01/28/die-urspruenge-der-krise/

[7] https://www.untergrund-blättle.ch/politik/europa/telepolis-kritik-ukraine-politik-7014.html

[8] See also: Der Linke Blodheitskoeffizient. https://www.konicz.info/2020/12/09/der-linke-bloedheitskoeffizient/

[9] https://exitinenglish.com/2022/08/12/a-new-quality-of-crisis/

[10] https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/banken/bankenkrise-fed-gibt-ueber-notfallprogramme-derzeit-mehr-geld-aus-als-nach-lehman-pleite-a-ef292d06-47de-40eb-b8ee-e5ebb999d2db

[11] https://www.manager-magazin.de/politik/europaeische-zentralbank-und-federal-reserve-drehen-geldhahn-noch-weiter-auf-a-0934cfea-a533-4a15-94af-cae56f563bcb

[12] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/23/banks-ramp-up-use-of-new-fed-facility-created-in-crisis.html

[13] https://www.brookings.edu/2023/03/22/what-did-the-fed-do-after-silicon-valley-bank-and-signature-bank-failed/

[14]  https://exitinenglish.com/2023/06/09/silicon-valley-bank-the-weakest-link/

[15] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/weltwirtschaft/ezb-notenbanken-fed-liqiuiditaet-swap-dollar-euro-konzertierte-aktion-bankenkrise-ubs-credit-suisse-101.html

[16] https://www.konicz.info/2007/03/05/vor-dem-tsunami/

[17] https://www.manager-magazin.de/politik/europaeische-zentralbank-und-federal-reserve-drehen-geldhahn-noch-weiter-auf-a-0934cfea-a533-4a15-94af-cae56f563bcb

[18] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

[19] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/201216/umfrage/ezb-zinssatz-fuer-das-hauptrefinanzierungsgeschaeft-seit-1999/

[20] https://www.dw.com/en/ecb-raises-interest-rates-by-05-as-banks-stocks-wobble/a-65003987

[21] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/fed-announces-interest-rate-hike-of-25-basis-points.html

[22] https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/finanzen/ezb-leitzinserhoehung-102.html https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/05/03/fed-interest-rate-hike-live-updates/70170191007

[23] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/201216/umfrage/ezb-zinssatz-fuer-das-hauptrefinanzierungsgeschaeft-seit-1999/

[24] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/419455/umfrage/leitzins-der-zentralbank-der-usa/

[25] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/72328/umfrage/entwicklung-der-jaehrlichen-inflationsrate-in-der-eurozone/

[26] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/191086/umfrage/monatliche-inflationsrate-in-den-usa/

[27] https://www.yardeni.com/pub/balsheetwk.pdf

[28] Yardeni Research, Inc: Central Banks:Fed, ECB & BOJ Weekly Balance Sheets, (Chart 1), https://www.yardeni.com/pub/balsheetwk.pdf

[29] https://www.konicz.info/2021/08/08/dreierlei-inflation/

[30] https://www.konicz.info/2021/08/08/dreierlei-inflation/

[31] To a certain extent, balance sheet reduction is a “passive” process: Central banks simply buy less new paper after the bonds on their balance sheets mature. No sovereign debt or mortgage securities are actively moved into the markets by the banks.

[32] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

[33] Yardeni Research, Inc: Central Banks: Fed, ECB & BOJ Weekly Balance Sheets, (Graphs 2 and 3), https://www.yardeni.com/pub/balsheetwk.pdf

[34] Yardeni Research, Inc: Central Banks: Fed, ECB & BOJ Weekly Balance Sheets, (charts 13, 14), https://www.yardeni.com/pub/balsheetwk.pdf

[35] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jul/23/artificial-intelligence-boom-generates-optimism-in-tech-sector-as-stocks-soar

[36] https://think.ing.com/articles/us-housing-market-in-gridlock-with-risks-emerging

[37] https://www.konicz.info/2011/08/15/politik-in-der-krisenfalle/

[38] https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/back-to-stagflation/

[39] https://www.konicz.info/2023/08/26/bidens-improvisierter-masterplan/

[40] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/mehr-wirtschaft/usa-wie-biden-und-trump-sich-beim-protektionismus-einig-sind-18813444.html

[41] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/C307RC1Q027SBEA

Originally published in Ökumenisches Netz on 09/07/2023

No Water in The Desert

Why The Search For Purchasing Power Comes To Nothing

Robert Kurz

What does capitalism need now like a man dying of thirst in the desert needs a watering hole? Solvent demand! But its own mechanisms of operation have dried up this demand. It is the old song of internal contradiction, intoned in increasingly shrill tones: People who are subject to the laws of the logic of valorization should work for God’s wages until they are exhausted, save like world champions to secure their old age and their future, and at the same time spend money as consumers with their hands full.

Neoliberal supply policies dealt with this contradiction in their own way, by demanding cost reductions no matter what. The cheapening of supply was supposed to lead to growth in accordance with the laws of the market. This was to apply not least to the supply of the commodity labor power on the labor markets, whose deregulation everywhere lowered real wages and forced the expansion of the low-wage sector. The problem of demand was seemingly solved by creating insubstantial purchasing power through financial bubbles in the U.S. and elsewhere (for example, through the infamous mortgage loans), despite the long-term erosion of real wages for the broad middle class. The result was a global deficit economy with a one-sided export orientation, with the U.S. being the largest recipient of these exports.

As this construct begins to give up the ghost after the global financial crash, Keynesian demand policy seems to be being rediscovered. The state is supposed to revive the collapsing purchasing power of consumers by means of economic policy. But far away are the times when, under much more comfortable conditions in the old FRG, the “concerted action” of government, business associations and trade unions produced a Keynesian surge in demand that was eventually eaten up by inflation. Today, there is no trace of “concertation”; the opposing theories are mixed up like turnips and cabbage.

With the scrapping bonus, the government directly subsidized an important consumer sector for the part of the middle class that was still able to accept the gift. It is common knowledge that this emergency measure was just a flash in the pan. The other economic stimulus packages remain too weak because the bailouts of the financial sector alone are already threatening to bring public finances to the brink of ruin; a problematic blow to the entire banking system that was unthinkable in Keynesian times. The mirage of the black-yellow promise of tax cuts to create purchasing power has little to do with Keynesian demand policy, but is nothing more than neoliberal nostalgia. The tax cut, especially for the upper middle class, was one of the flanking measures of supply-side policy that no longer works. First, it cannot be financed, and second, it would fizzle out because, given the crisis situation, it could not be used for investment or consumption. That is why the glorious coalition partners are having a family row after only three weeks in government.

The desperate search for demand with purchasing power is all the more contradicted by the situation in the factories. The workers of companies threatened with insolvency are outbidding each other in concessions to management, driven by fear for their jobs. It is not only at Opel and Arcandor that forgoing wages, vacation and Christmas bonuses is the order of the day. At Quelle, it has already been to no avail. And the wave of bankruptcies has only just begun. The wage cuts negotiated by the works committees to save the company are likely to spread further. It fits into this picture that the trade unions, with their usual sense of responsibility for everything bad that happens during the crisis, are starting to prepare for a wage freeze in the 2010 collective bargaining negotiations. When this voluntary supply policy for labor, born out of necessity, is praised in a honeyed way, it is a blatant contradiction of a demand orientation, but that is just the way things are.

In this situation, the demand for a general, sufficiently high legal minimum wage has receded into the background; and there can be even less talk of increasing welfare payments that have fallen below the subsistence level. On the contrary, low wages are beginning to spread to the core workforce through wage sacrifice, and the lower middle class is melting away. The flash in the pan of government demand policy is being supplemented by a continuation of supply policy by other means on the labor markets. This trump card in the game of global competition should not be relinquished. The caravan of cheaper and cheaper labor should continue to move forward even without a watering hole. That is why the elites are staring at China like a rabbit at a snake, although it is more than doubtful that a new global deficit economy can be started from there as a reversal of the previous one-sided export flows. When belief in miracles replaces demand concepts that are no longer viable, the next economic slump is predestined. Then the downward spiral will continue with nothing but emergency rations.

Originally published in the print edition of the weekly newspaper Freitag on 11/19/2009

Business As Usual

On the Ongoing Madness of the Capitalist Mode of Production

Thomas Meyer

It is gratifying when the real madness of capitalism is taken note of, specifically with regard to the crisis since 2007/2008, and a critique of this madness is formulated on the basis of the crisis. Paul Mattick Jr.[1] attempts this in his 2011 book Business as Usual: The Economic Crisis and the Failure of Capitalism.[2]

In this book, Mattick outlines the history of economic crises and argues for a concrete historical examination of capitalism. However, according to Mattick, crises are generally unexplained and misunderstood because most people don’t connect them to the internal history of capitalism and its logic of valorization. This is often because capitalism is perceived as natural, and consequently no consideration is even given to looking at it historically.

Capitalism as Imposition and Crisis

The situation is well known: the so-called financial crisis began with the bursting of the real estate bubble in 2007/2008. Most commentaries were unanimous in their lack of understanding of capitalism. Mainstream economics, mostly of neoclassical provenance, was rightly accused of neither being able to formulate reasonably reliable forecasts nor having plausible explanations for the economic situation at that time.[3] Critics of neoliberalism, deregulation, etc., on the other hand, were as blind to history as the Keynesian Paul Krugman, who “left undiscussed the reasons why Keynesian theory fell into disrepute in the 1970s” (20).

According to Mattick, “clearly there is something wrong with the mainstream approach to understanding current economic affairs. Part of the problem lies in the terms with which commentators attempt to understand the social system in which we live” (25).

To understand the current crisis, Mattick argues, we need to look at the history of capitalism and its historical dynamics. In particular, we should take note of the nature of crises under capitalism, especially in comparison to famine-related crises in pre-modern societies: “Something new emerged when an increasingly money-centered economy gave rise to the Industrial Revolution and the establishment of capitalism in wide enough swathes of territory for it to become the dominant social system: crises of the social system as a whole. Before that, of course, social production and consumption were disrupted by a variety of disturbances: war, plague, bad harvests. But the coming of capitalism brought something new: starvation alongside good harvests and mountains of food […]. Such breakdowns in the normal process of production, distribution and consumption were now due not to natural or political causes but to specifically economic factors: lack of money to purchase needed goods, profits too low to make production worthwhile” (28, emphasis in original).

To the extent that these facts are taken note of at all, it has always been the case that bourgeois economists have sought the causes of crises in extra-economic or extra-societal factors. This includes William Stanley Jevons, who, “starting with a publication in 1875, [tried] to prove a correlation between business ups and downs and the sunspot cycle […].” Marx, on the other hand, was quite different: “Marx argued that capitalism’s basic nature produced a tendency to crisis, which was realized in recurring depressions and would eventually bring the downfall of the system. Marx’s approach differed so fundamentally from the generality of economic theorizing, however, that it proved difficult for others interested in the subject (including most of those who called themselves Marxists) even to understand his ideas, much less find them useful” (32f.).

Some bourgeois economists, however, still managed to recognize what was actually obvious, such as Wesley Mitchell (1874-1948) in his 1927 book on the business cycle, in which he wrote: “In business the useful goods produced by an enterprise are not the ends of endeavor, but the means toward earning profits. […] Economic activity in a money-making world […] depends upon the factors which affect present or prospective profits” (35).

Mattick says it is quite amazing that this insight escapes most economists to this day.

However, Mitchell cannot provide a theoretical explanation for fluctuating profitability. Nor does he address, among other things, the question of what money actually is: “These are questions that even a historically oriented economist like Mitchell did not think to ask, because he took for granted the existence of money […]. Asking them, for an inhabitant of capitalist society, would be like an ancient Egyptian asking why Osiris was in control of the Nile’s ebb and flow and so of the rise and fall of agricultural output. Answering them requires sufficient intellectual distance from the conventions of our own society […] to consider money (and so profit) as historically peculiar social institutions, with particular consequences for the way we live” (39).

Of course, we would add other peculiar social institutions of this kind, such as labor, i.e. man reduced to a container of labor power, bourgeois gender relations, i.e. the double idiocy of kitchen and career, and a thinking that, above all in its practice, can only recognize the world as a substrate for valorization.

Moreover, people forget that “[…] in much of the world, even the very recent past – most people made little or no use of money […]” and “[…] that while money appears in many types of society, capitalism is the only one in which it plays such a central role in the production and distribution of goods and services […]. In such a system, money has a different social significance from that of earlier societies. […] In capitalism, […] this allocation is carried out by finding out what quantities of what goods can be sold, rather than by some social process of deciding in what kinds of production to engage” (40ff.).[4]

Mattick notes that crises are linked to the valorization dynamics of capitalism: On the one hand, it is necessary to achieve maximum “profitability” – because making money is the driving force of capitalist production. On the other hand, in order to prevail in competition, it is necessary to reduce costs, for example by increasing labor productivity, or in other words by reducing the proportion of labor employed relative to the quantity of products it produces. This generally has the effect of increasing the cost of the means of production relative to that of wages, so that the individual commodity becomes cheaper. This process manifests itself in saturated markets, declining investment in the means of production, etc., and rising unemployment (49f.). The misery appears as a lack of demand. This is precisely where Keynesianism comes in. The main idea of Keynesianism was that the state would generate demand through credit (e.g., through large-scale infrastructure projects[5]) in order to revive the valorization dynamics, thereby overcoming the depression and eventually paying off the debt through increased tax revenues. Keynes’ model seemed to be successful, since the Great Depression was overcome (not least by the Second World War, 69f.) and parts of humanity were then able to enjoy an economic miracle (the “golden age” as Mattick calls it). Nevertheless, Keynesian methods continued after the depression proper. The economic miracle was thus hardly self-sustaining: “In reality, crisis management turned into a permanent state-private ‘mixed economy.’ After the mid-1970s, throughout the capitalistically developed countries, national debt, far from being repaid, grew, both absolutely and in relation to GDP. […] By the time Reagan left office the national debt had tripled from $900 billion to $2.8 trillion. […] The United States had a government debt of $16 billion in 1930; today it is $12.5 trillion and climbing” (55, 73-75).[6]

Mattick also describes the genesis of finance-driven capitalism: “The slowdown in productive investment meant that money was increasingly available for other purposes. […] This ‘massive shift toward speculative uses of liquidity […] expressed itself in a strong push to legislative deregulation […].’ Deregulation, that is, was a response to the pressure to speculate; though of course it made risk-taking easier; it was not the cause of increased speculation. Similarly, to explain the rise of debt-financed acquisitions and other modes of speculation as the effect of greed, as is often done today, is doubly silly not only does it leave unexplained the sudden increase of greediness in recent decades, but it also ignores the basic motive of capitalist investment decisions, which must always be guided by the expected maximum profits achievable in a reasonably short term” (60f.).

Mattick also points out that the financial crisis of 2007/2008 should not be seen in isolation from the crisis since the 1970s and its roots in the logic of valorization; nor should the smaller crises since the 1980s. Rather, today’s situation is a “more serious manifestation of the depression that first announced itself dramatically in the mid-1970s, but which governmental economic policy was able hold at bay – in part by displacing it to poor parts of the world, but largely by a historically unprecedented creation of public, private and individual debt, in the rich parts – for 30-odd years” (66).

But what is the fundamental difference between the current crisis and the depression of 1929, other than the skyrocketing national debt?

Unfortunately, Mattick does not elaborate much on this crucial idea. He does mention that since government spending counteracted, rather than overcame the earlier decline in profit rates, “it is not surprising that corporations used the funds available to them less for building new factories to produce more goods than for squeezing more profit out of existing production by investing in labor- and energy-saving equipment while labor costs were lowered by moving plants from high-wage to low-wage areas […]. The results of this included a lasting increase in unemployment in Western Europe and what became the Rust Belt of the US” (58f.).

What is qualitatively new, namely the crisis of the labor society, the microelectronic revolution and its still not fully exploited potentials for rationalization, is not really clearly elaborated here. However, referring to Marx, Mattick does say that the valorization dynamics of capitalism must ultimately lead to its downfall (see above), although here he does not explicitly refer to the “The Fragment on Machines” from the Grundrisse, but only to the tendency of the rate of profit to fall.

Another inaccuracy regarding the ineffectiveness of Keynesian methods is his suggestion that “government-financed production does not produce profit. […] For the government has no money of its own; it pays with tax money or with borrowed funds that will eventually have to be repaid out of taxes. […] Government spending therefore cannot solve the problem of depression […]. It can put off the issue by supplying financial and other business with the money they need to continue operations. It can also alleviate the suffering it causes, at least in the short run, by providing jobs or money to those out of work, or create infrastructure useful for future profitable production. […] The underlying problem in a period of depression can be solved only by the depression itself […], which […] can raise profitability by lowering capital and labor costs, increasing productivity through technological advances, and concentrating capital ownership in larger, more efficient units” (81f.).

On the contrary, I would argue that Keynesian methods are effective precisely when they lead to production on an expanded scale; when state measures of concentration and mobilization lead to a greater absorption of living labor, when the cheapening of commodities leads to an expansion of markets, when there is consequently an expansion of total capital, an increase in the total mass of value in society, whether or not this process is mediated by war. This leads to an increase in tax revenues, so that the loans, which represented an anticipation of the future to come, can still be serviced. The fact that this worked to some extent is known to be due to the massive expansion of Fordist industries. Why are Keynesian measures clearly failing today, even though they were effective in the past?

As already indicated, these methods stopped being effective in the 1970s, since the subsequent microelectronic revolution did not lead to a renewed increase in the absorption of living labor power. Therefore, financially driven capitalism and neoliberal ideology were precisely the historical course through which capitalism, although completely blind to history and increasingly resistant to facts, worked out this contradiction.

The idea that a depression could be solved by a market shakeout (which, after all, was averted by unprecedented amounts of credit) is, according to Mattick, completely false today. Further concentration of capital, further rationalization, etc., would only impair people’s ability to function as exploitable containers of labor power, leading to a mass of superfluous people, or the “accumulation of hundreds of millions of un- or under-employed people in gigantic slums around the world” (65). Mattick’s somewhat imprecise definition of the crisis makes him seem a bit ahistorical, although he is quite clear about the extent of the misery, citing Mike Davis’s Planet of the Slums. Fortunately, he does not fall into a false optimism that overlooks reality, as is often the case with the bourgeois lumpenintelligentsia.

Mattick also writes, contrary to many others, that China and India cannot be the hope for a restored capitalism, because “China’s growth […] remains closely tied to that of the developed countries […]. India, where the majority of the population still consists of poverty-stricken rural workers, is even further from being an independent economic power.[7] Indeed, ‘most of the trade of the Indian and Chinese economies is still in the form of re-exports of finished or semi-finished products or services manufactured by multinational firms which are based in Europe or the US’” (88).

What Should We Do?

So, in view of millions of people living in misery, environmental degradation and anthropogenic climate change, what should we do? What are Mattick’s practical conclusions?

According to Mattick, the traditional left, insofar as it is not already marginalized, can hardly be expected to transcend the horizon of capital. For the traditional left (social democracy and real socialism) have had their day historically, since “traditional workers’ politics had turned out to be not a harbinger of the overthrow of capitalism but an aspect of its development, fulfilling the need for the normalization of a new mode of social relations by way of organizations capable of negotiation and compromise” (97f.).

But the decline of the traditional left is no reason for apathetic acceptance of capitalist madness: for it is precisely in the crisis that the difference between material and monetary wealth, as Karl Marx tried to outline it, can become apparent to many, which could motivate people to act. Mattick also sketches this idea: money may be devalued, factories may be closed, but material wealth is still, so to speak, within reach: “While at present they are still awaiting the promised return of prosperity, at some point the newly homeless millions, like many of their predecessors in the 1930s, may well look at foreclosed, empty houses, unsaleable consumer goods and stockpiled government foodstuffs and see the materials they need to sustain life. The simple taking and use of housing, food and other goods, however, by breaking the rules of an economic system based on the exchange of goods for money, in itself implies a radically new mode of social existence”(106).

The independent appropriation of the means of production may be a first step to get rid of capitalism and thus to find another form of society, even if humanity will have to struggle with the disastrous legacies (environmental destruction, etc.) of capitalism for a long time to come: “Whatever it is called, it will need to begin by abolishing the distinction between those who control and those who perform the work of production, by replacing a social mechanism based on monetary market exchange (including the buying and selling of the ability to work) with some mode of shared social decision-making adequate to a global economic system” (109).

But Mattick is wrong when he writes that the means of production are under the control of certain subjects. It is true that only a capitalist use is foreseen for means of production, real estate, etc., and that this will therefore be defended by all means of violence if the people would presume to wrest them from the valorizing movement of capitalism, as Mattick himself implies: “As in totalitarian states, so also in democratic ones the formation of popular authorities poses an immediate threat to the powers that be, however limited the ambitions of the people concerned.[8] Threats to the economic order will certainly be met with repression, going beyond the military and police violence already mobilized in recent years against anti­austerity demonstrators in Athens, striking government workers in South Africa, students in London and elsewhere […]” (107).

Nevertheless, this in principle traditional Marxist formulation suggests that certain subjects would indeed have the power to determine production and its content. The functional logic of the valorization dynamics cannot be traced back to the determination of the will of subjects. This does not mean, however, that no one can be held responsible for anything, since the imperatives of capitalism must be mediated through the subjects so that they can (or rather must) act in accordance with these imperatives. But this does not mean that people are subjects of the overall capitalist event. This is where a subject- and ideology-critical level of critique would come in, which is missing in Mattick (apart from an ideology critique of economics and various views of history).

But a mere appropriation would not be enough: for it is the productive (or rather destructive) legacies of capitalism, and especially the managerial form of their implementation, that need to be criticized and, as a result, not positively occupied. It would be a futile effort to simply appropriate the capitalist “productive forces” in order to continue them on our own (as can be seen in occupied factories[9]). If we are going to transform the mode of production, then we would have to transform the content of production, which of course also means that the production of certain things, like cars, would have to be abolished or reduced.

In its most basic form, by the way, this idea is all that new. The anarchist Erich Mühsam, for example, wrote in 1932: “The childish idea that the revolution has already made the transition to socialism with the occupation of the enterprises by the workers and their simple continuation under their own leadership the revolution is as nonsensical as it is dangerous. Under capitalist conditions, factories of all kind are organized exclusively according to the profit calculations of the entrepreneurs. There is no consideration for the needs of the people, no consideration for the requirements of justice, of reason, for the life and health of workers and consumers. […] An economy which leaves many millions destitute without work, literally starving, and that at the same time burns important foodstuffs, dumps them into the sea, lets them rot in the barns or uses them as fertilizer, such an economy cannot simply be taken over and continued. It must be transformed from the ground up.”[10]

In times of failed states, appropriation occurs anyway, even if in the sense of an economy of plunder. The fact that appropriation takes place, however understandable it may be in the given situation, can also mean that the appropriators see themselves as an ethnic gang, a racist eugenic association or a terrorist religious sect, etc., and consequently exclude other people from their means of production (or what is left of them) and thus continue the competition by other means; in other words, appropriation as a bloody mode of redistribution in the “molecular civil war” (Enzensberger). Mattick’s critique of capitalism, as shown, is almost an exclusively economic one; the subjective moment is left out. He does mention that in crisis situations people are certainly capable of spontaneous solidarity, which gives one some hope. But the fact that they could be just as capable of racism, sexism, anti-Semitism, and anti-Gypsyism, not only in their minds but also in their actions, as a celebrated pogrom, is not further addressed by him. Here at the latest, the omission of the level of ideology and subject critique in a critique of capitalism takes its revenge. Unfortunately, Mattick largely leaves it at the practical conclusions quoted above, without giving them any further thought. An answer to Lenin’s question may be more urgent today than ever, but it should not be demanded by truncating or even abandoning theoretical reflection.

Paul Mattick: Business as Usual: The Economic Crisis and the Failure of Capitalism, London, Reaktion Books 2011.


[1] Paul Mattick Jr, b. 1944, the son of Paul Mattick (1904-1981), teaches philosophy at Adelphi University in New York.

[2] See also the interview about the book that Paul Mattick gave to The Brooklyn Rail magazine in 2011.

[3] On the lack of understanding of the capitalism of neoclassical economic theory, see Claus Peter Ortlieb: “Markt-Märchen – Zur Kritik der neoklassischen akademischen Volkswirtschaftslehre und ihrer Gebrauch mathematischer Modelle,” in EXIT! – Crisis and Critique of Commodity Society No. 1 (2001), 166-183. Online: https://exit-online.org/pdf/exit_komplett/exit1.pdf. Conventional economic theory usually thinks of itself as “ideology-free,” since it uses mathematics, which, given the obviously visible and historically effective success in the natural sciences, is supposed to vouch for objectivity. However, we should rather speak of a methodological misuse of mathematics, see Herbert Auinger: Mißbrauchte Mathematik – Zur Verwendung mathematischer Methoden in den Sozialwissenschaften, Frankfurt 1995. For further details, see: Knut Hüller: Kapital als Fiktion – Wie endloser Verteilungskampf die Profitrate senken und, Finanzkrisen? erzeugt, Hamburg 2015.

[4] See, for example: Robert Kurz: Geld ohne Wert – Grundrisse zu einer Transformation der Kritik der politischen Ökonomie, Berlin 2012 and Hartmut Apel: Verwandtschaft Gott und Geld – zur Organisation archaischer, ägyptischer und antiker Gesellschaft, Frankfurt 1982.

[5] See Wolfgang Schivelbusch: Entfernte Verwandtschaft: Faschismus, Nationalsozialismus, New Deal. 1933-1939, Munich/Vienna 2005.

[6] Currently (March 2016), the U.S. national debt is between $19 and $20 trillion, depending on the source. However, according to various economists, the national debt is much higher: if, for example, you include the ever-increasing cost of Social Security, see http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2013/08/09/studie-deckt-auf-usa-haben-verdeckte-schulden-von-70-billionen-dollar/.

[7] More precisely, half of the population works in agriculture, 800 million Indians are considered poor, one third of the population is chronically malnourished, and 92% of the working population works in the informal sector without any insurance. Data in Dominik Müller: Indien – Die größte Demokratie der Welt?, Berlin/Hamburg 2014. Whereby girls are more affected by malnutrition: It is quite common that the boys in a poor family get more than the girls, these are often never allowed to eat their fill, if they try it, they are beaten up, and if the food is not enough, they are left to starve (!), see Georg Blume/Christoph Hein: Indiens verdrängte Wahrheit – Streitschrift gegen ein unmenschliches System, Hamburg 2014.

[8] Already self-organized homeless feeding programs are being opposed by the state, see the material at nationalhomeless.org.

[9] When factories were occupied in Argentina, constraints and the extension of night shifts were also discussed there, see “Occupied Factories in Argentina: Movement against Capital or Self-Management of Capitalist Misery?” in Wildcat No. 70 (2004). An occupation can mean precisely a continuation of competition by other means!

[10] Erich Mühsam: Befreiung der Gesellschaft vom Staat, Berlin 1975, 75.

Originally published in exit! 14 in 2017